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Monday, June 10, 2013

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Severn Trent, AstraZeneca and Lo-Q

From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 10th June 2013

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Competition

Congratulations to Anthony Pilling whose caption (below) has been voted the funniest and has won the UK-Analyst Friday competition. Watch out for another contest at the end of the week.

“Good god. Surely my pension comes to more than that!"

The Markets

According to a study by accountancy firm Ernst and Young, UK consumers are likely to be more generous in their spending this financial year. An expected 1.2% uplift in consumer spend is predicted to be boosted by government tax policies and a recovery in the housing market. The report tipped consumers to increase their spend on TVs, tablet computers, smartphones and package holidays, while clothing and footwear is also predicted to perform relatively strongly over the next few years. Although difficult to quantify, the government's Funding for Lending scheme is also thought to be playing a part in the upturn as it has made mortgage payments for some borrowers cheaper and, in turn, increased people's disposable income. Peter Spencer, Chief Economic Adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, commented, "The high street revival is gathering momentum. A happy coincidence of converging factors, supported by Government policies around income tax and the housing market, will lead to the revival of consumer spending over the next three years."

However, UK manufacturer's are increasingly avoiding external funding, in a trend which casts doubts over the effectiveness of the Funding for Lending Scheme. Almost 52% of companies surveyed by manufacturers' organisation EEF insisted that they had no need to borrow to support their business - a record high figure. The survey revealed that a number of manufacturers seemed to be relying on internal funds to fund investment as many businesses perceive the criteria that banks set for fresh borrowing as unreasonable. Overall, the survey paints an improved picture for the UK manufacturing sector with companies reporting the first positive balance on UK sales since the second quarter of 2012. Lee Hopley, the EEF's Chief Economist commented "The improvement in output and positive expectations on orders bodes well for growth going into the second half of the year. However, a couple of aspects - namely the relative weakness in export orders and the softening in investment intentions - suggest that confidence may still need to be tempered for now."

Over in Asia, Japanese growth figures have been upgraded, fuelling hopes that the economy is genuinely regaining momentum. According to the Japanese Cabinet Office, the world's third largest economy grew by 1% between January and March compared to the previous three months - up from the initial estimate of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter growth. The upgrade was partly due to an upward revision in capital spending, an important metric of confidence among the nation's producers. The upbeat figures come just days after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe revealed the next phase of a sweeping plan for the economy that includes a hike in government spending and aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. Hideki Matsumura, Senior Economist with the Japan Research Institute, commented, "We expect the economy will continue to grow for now but consumer spending may be dampened in the current quarter after a sizeable adjustment in the Nikkei index."

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 14.28 points at 15,262.40 and the Nasdaq grew by 9.30 points to 3,000.17.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 11.54 points to 6,400.45 and the FTSE 250 increased by 20.18 points to 14,025.19. The FTSE All-Share slid by 3.62 points to 3,380.94 while the FTSE AIM Index edged up by 4.29 points to 723.54.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on African agricultural group Zambeef (ZAM) with a target price of 70p. The broker feels that Zambeef's interim results provide an initial indication of the impact being made by its recent investment programme in meeting strong consumer demand. Looking ahead, Panmure believes that Zambeef is strongly positioned to deliver further strong revenue and profit growth across all divisions and is confident that it remains on track to generate a cash inflow in FY 2013E. The shares slid by 0.375p to 52.125p.

Canaccord Genuity re-iterated its "buy" stance on Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL) with a target price of 145p. The broker notes today's announcement which revealed the appointment of Keith Edelman - currently a Non-Executive Director of Supergroup, Safestore and Thorntons - as Non-Executive Chairman. Canaccord feels that this move significantly enhances the board, giving it a broader skill set of financial and multi-site retail and leisure experience which, according to the broker, should help it to capture the opportunities available as it embarks on the next stage of development. The shares were unchanged at 135p.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its "buy" recommendation on office space provider Workspace Group (WKP) with a target price of 375p. The broker expects net rental income to be virtually flat year-on-year at 44.9 million pounds due to refurbishment and redevelopment, but increased its underlying PBT forecast by 15.6% to 17.7 million pounds. Cantor goes on to cite the current improving London economic environment as a possible reason for the shares to trade on a modest premium to NAV and expects the upcoming results to be upbeat. The shares fell by 3.1p to 383p.

Blue-Chips

Engineering and project management firm Amec (AMEC) has been awarded a two-year extension to a contract with natural gas giant BG Group worth 110 million pounds. The contract was originally awarded in 2011 and sees AMEC provide engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and project management support for all of BG Group's facilities in the central North Sea. Recent broker consensus on the stock has been on the negative side, with Morgan Stanley and Exane BNP Paribas recently issuing "underweight" and "underperform" recommendations respectively. The shares jumped by 2.5p to 1,002p.

Water company Severn Trent (SVT) has rejected the latest takeover proposal from the LongRiver consortium at 2,200p per share - a 20.5% premium to the share price the day before the initial approach. Severn Trent argues that the offer "fails to reflect the significant long term value of Severn Trent". According to market regulations, LongRiver must make a further offer for the company by tomorrow or else walk away. The shares dived by 124p to 1,946p.

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Precious metals producer Polymetal (POLY) has secured two sales contracts with Chinese off-takers at the Mayskoye gold project, a milestone which will allow it to begin to generate free cash flow from its newest mine. Under the two contracts, Polymetal will sell up to 50,000 tonnes of refractory gold concentrate produced at Mayskoye before the end of September at an average grade of 55g per tonne. According to the company, the extra cost of selling the Mayskoye concentrate to off-takers, rather than shipping it and processing it, is around $250 per ounce. The shares were down by 31.5p to 644p.

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (AZN) has agreed to buy U.S lung drug specialist Pearl Therapeutics for up to $1.15 billion (740 million pounds) as it looks to build on a dwindling drug pipe-line. Under the terms of the deal, AstraZeneca will pay $560 million (360.4 million pounds) initially and then up to a further $450 million (289.7 million pounds) dependant on drug development milestones being reached. The acquisition is a clear attempt to halt a slide in revenues and profits as older medicines lose patent protection. The shares jumped by 6.5p to 3,308p.

Mid Caps

Construction firm Balfour Beatty (BBY) confirmed that it is to close its offices in Dartford, Rochdale and Doncaster due to a combination of insufficient construction activity and disproportionately high cost bases. These three offices account for around 8% of UK regional business which generated 1.5 billion pounds of revenue in 2012. Separately, the group revealed that it had been awarded a contract in excess of 110 million pounds to construct the 43-storey Providence Tower by the river Thames. The shares increased by 10.3p to 226.3p.

Small Caps

Vitesse Media (VIS), the corporate and investor relations group, announced that revenues fell from 2.9 million pounds to 2 million pounds for the year ended 31st January, while its loss for the year almost halved to 282,000 pounds. The group cited the "strategic discontinuation of certain products" as reason for the drop in revenues. Looking ahead, the group is adamant it can transform itself into a profitable company, especially as it has now completed the transformation of all of its publications from print to digital. The shares shot up by 0.375p to 2.375p.

Lo-Q (LOQ), the manufacturer virtual queuing devices, has agreed to launch its product at both the Wet'n'Wild Las Vegas and Wet'n'Wild Phoenix waterparks. The product in question allows users to queue without having to stand in line. Instead, users reserve their place in a queue line electronically and are notified when it is their turn. The financial details of the five year contracts were not disclosed to the market. The shares swelled by 12.5p to 624p.

Plexus Holdings (POS), the oil and gas engineering services provider, has secured a new contract from Det Norske Oljeselskap to supply its POS-GRIP High Pressure, High Temperature wellhead system for two exploration wells in the Norwegian Continental Shelf . The deal is thought to be worth around 2 million pounds to the company with revenue generation expected to commence next month. The update went on to stress that the group is well placed to win further business in the North Sea, consistent with the accelerating level of oil and gas exploration and development activity in the area. The shares gained 2.5p, finishing the day at 200p.

Zoltav Resources (ZOL) is to go ahead with the already proposed acquisition of CenGeo Holdings for a consideration of $26 million (16.76 million pounds). CenGeo Holdings, through its wholly owned subsidiary ZAO Siberian Geologicheskaya Kompaniya, holds the Koltogorsky Licence located in the Khantiy-Mansisk Autonomous Okrug region of Western Siberia. To fund the associated working capital requirements, Zoltav plans to raise 12.7 million pounds as it re-admits the enlarged group to trading on AIM. The shares climbed by 1.75p to 6.35p.

Digital Globe Services (DGS) expects trading for the year to the end of June to be in line with market expectations. The firm, which specialises in helping business attract online customers, went on to stress its confidence for next year as it continues to "implement its growth strategy to good effect". Looking ahead, the group promised to pursue growth opportunities in Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region in a bid to add to existing operations in North America and Mexico. The shares slipped by 14.15p to 226.35p.

Medical group Surgical Innovations (SUN) declared that pilot testing for its prototype port access products for hip arthroscopy has concluded "successfully". Hip arthroscopy is a surgical procedure which gives doctors a view of the inside of a joint, allowing them to work accurately and with minimal invasion. On the back of the update broker Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on the group with a 6.6p target price, arguing that today's news reflects the "pursuit of new market opportunities". The shares edged up by 0.33p to 5.5p.

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