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Monday, June 24, 2013

Minesite Newsletter 24th June 2013

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 17th - 24th June 2013
Dear Minesite subscriber,
Weekly Review

Gold: the bulls say China, the bears say USA. In recent weeks, the USA has been winning hands down, as Ben Bernanke has flagged a likely end to quantitative easing, and the dollar has climbed.

But although currently in retreat, the bulls still have some strong arguments in their favour. We'll be hearing some of them later this week, from two of the junior gold miners we follow at Minesite, Vatukoula Gold Mines and Conroy Gold & Natural Resources.

Professor Conroy argues that China's rise continues, even allowing for the recent nervousness about credit and the accuracy of data.

The Chinese will likely as government and as consumers continue to buy gold. Chinese government holdings of gold are nowhere near as large as the US's, which remains the benchmark for China.

At the same time, the remnimbi will slowly and inexorably rise as a reserve currency, and over time may begin to challenge the dollar. More gold in the vaults will enable that process to happen more effectively.

What effects those dynamics will have on the price isn't clear. But long term strength from Asia's rising star is the clear message.

Meanwhile, at Vatukoula Dave Paxton has just taken delivery of a good slug of Chinese equity investment. Actually getting Chinese money in after it's been committed is no small achievement, and is a clear indication that the Chinese are serious.

But what, actually, do they want? They like gold, says Dave, and they like gold assets outside of China. The market speculates that they may want to ramp up output in a big way to deliver economies of scale. Dave is cautious about confirming that on the record. But he does note that his Chinese investors have confirmed that they will bring a great deal more money to the party via a debt instrument.

When that money will come in remains to be seen. Dave is off to China this evening, but is making no promises. When it does come though, it'll be another clear sign that the famous Chinese habit of taking the long view is once again in evidence, and that they are long-term bulls of gold.

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