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Monday, June 17, 2013

| 06.17.13 | Lloyd Blankfein's career is incomplete

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June 17, 2013
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Today's Top Stories

  1. Aggrieved shareholders take on Goldman Sachs
  2. Fairholme Capital bets big on GSEs
  3. Public opinion: Congress, the new banking industry
  4. James Herbert II capably leads First Republic Bank
  5. Mortgage settlement report card coming soon


Editor's Corner: Lloyd Blankfein's career is incomplete

Also Noted: Spotlight On... People still chasing the hedge fund dream
JPMorgan to spin off PE unit and much more...


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Editor's Corner

Lloyd Blankfein's career is incomplete

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

If you thought that the financial crisis would force Goldman Sachs' CEO out of his job, you were sorely mistaken. He's way too stubborn for that. There's no way he would allow himself to leave under the impression he was forced out. The ignominy would be too much. To his credit, Blankfein weathered the storms and has engineered a recovery that once again has positioned his bank as one of the top two investment banks and trading outfits on Wall Street.

But the irony is that he's still under pressure to go.

Everyone understood why he couldn't leave while the bank was engulfed in controversy. But now that he has returned the bank to glory, the tacit question is: Why won't he leave? He won. He proved his detractors wrong. So why is he hanging on? Shouldn't he ride into the sunset on a cloud of glory?

He absolutely should. The issue is when and how. In another era, he would have been ideal as a Treasury Secretary. But these days, that's not going to fly in Washington, where the stigma of being a big bank hasn't fully faded.

If public service is out of the question, what else is there? I can't see him starting a hedge fund.

The fact is that departing CEOs of Goldman Sachs are supposed to go into public service. They're supposed to give back. My sense is that Blankfein is waiting until the climate morphs such that he can fulfill his public service destiny as other ex-Goldman Sachs CEOs have done. If he can't do that, his career is incomplete. The problem is that it's unclear how long it will take for the climate to change.

So he's in limbo. One danger for him is that he unwittingly creates the impression that he's merely coasting. He needs to do everything he can to appear statesman-like. But at some point, that effort can work against him if people start to assume he's merely biding his time.

I still think some sort of longer-term transition may be possible. One solution would be for the board to make him executive chairman for two years and tap President Gary Cohn (or someone else) as CEO. That would extend Blankfein's time to transition to public service and allow for new leadership.

 

Read more about: Goldman Sachs, CEO
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Events

> Investment Consultants Forum - The Crowne Plaza Times Square, New York, NY - March 2, 2012
> NFC Ticketing Europe 2012 - March 20-21 - London
> Public Funds Summit East - July 22-24 - Newport, RI - Newport Marriott
> 2013 ABA National and Graduate Trust Schools - September 22-27 - Atlanta, GA
> ABA Compliance Schools - October 19-25 - Atlanta, GA

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Today's Top News

1. Aggrieved shareholders take on Goldman Sachs

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

An esteemed New York Times columnist offers an interesting look at a company once known as Equity Inns, an owner of hotels, whose common shares were acquired by Goldman Sachs in 2007. The company subsequently went dark (in that it stopped filing detailed disclosures) as it is entitled to do by law if the number of shareholders falls below 300.

The remaining preferred shareholders were none too pleased, as they saw their dividends nixed, and have mounted an interesting campaign to publicize what they see as an injustice and to keep the information flowing.

One professor who owned the preferred shares has made the claim that Goldman Sachs' action "smells like insider trading," a reference to the bank's deal to purchase a large tranche of the preferred shares for itself. Another shareholder has set up 301 trusts, each of which owns preferred shares, listing himself as the trustee. The point is to force the bank to disclose more information about the company, which essentially is a collection of interests in hotels and no employees.

"The S.E.C. chose to ask for public comment on the request, bringing letters of protest from a number of shareholders, including Mr. Sullivan (who set up the trusts), who told me he would disclose the identities of the beneficial holders to the S.E.C., but only if it promised not to make them public."   

Even if Sullivan succeeds, "it is far from clear what he will have accomplished. Public filings would make it easier to see what was going on, but Goldman would still have all the cards and might find ways to assure that the preferred holders received little or nothing from their investment."

For Goldman Sachs, the publicity over what it no doubt considers a minor matter is not welcome. Compared to what it went through after the financial crisis, this seems relatively minor. But not to the aggrieved shareholders.

For more:
- here's the column

 

Read more about: shareholders, Goldman Sachs
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2. Fairholme Capital bets big on GSEs

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Another fund is laying some big bets on the GSEs. Bruce Berkowitz, of Fairholme Capital Management, has invested about $500 million in preferred shares in the two housing GSE mortgage giants, according to Fortune.

The bullish bet might be supported by the fact that Fannie Mae is back to boasting big profits. Recall that it posted record quarterly earnings of $7.6 billion last week and said that it expects to be profitable for the foreseeable future. By dint of a change to the GSE bailout agreements, these profits are delivered to the Treasury Department.

There is now talk that the two GSEs will someday pay off their debts to Uncle Sam, the way AIG and several top banks have. That would be a sweet moment.

To be sure, the real play is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are eventually saved from the dustbin of history. The preferred shares traded so low, in part, because the conventional wisdom was that they would eventually be shuttered by the government. But if they were to continue in some or fashion, the preferred shareholders stand to benefit.

Several hedge funds have been willing to make this trade, including John Paulson.

Some think it will prove to be a loser. Bert Ely, a veteran Washington, D.C.-based banking consultant, told the magazine that he's heard from regulators who said that there is no plan to make any payouts to preferred shareholders. "It's bullshit," Ely was quoted as saying. "I've been told that the terms of the conservatorship are that the perferreds will never have any real value."

Hedge funds are convinced they will be able to influence the political process to their liking. We'll see.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: GSEs, Fannie
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3. Public opinion: Congress, the new banking industry

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Recall that the financial crisis ushered in an era of extreme skepticism of large banks, much to the delight of small banks and credit unions. Consumer advocates smiled as these banks were pilloried in the media and in Washington, D.C., especially in Congress, where banks became the target of great ire and plenty of investigations. Powerful Congressmen seemed to relish accusing the likes of Goldman Sachs executives of perjury.

But times have changed, and banks aren't the villains they once were. According to a new Gallup poll, confidence in banks rose five points in the past year and now rests at 26 percent. How quickly Americans forget the banking crisis of just a few years ago that sent the market crashing and pushed the federal government to bailout those 'too big to fail.'

Last year, confidence in banks hit a record low at 21 percent, down two points from a year earlier. Before the economic downturn, confidence in banks was at 41 percent in 2007, according to the National Journal.

So who is the new villain in the public mind?

Somewhat ironically, Congress.

Americans' confidence in Congress has dropped to an all-time low, worse than any institution since the poll was started in 1973: Only 10 percent of Americans gave Congress positive marks. This was its fourth straight year at the bottom of a list of 16 institutions.

The tables have turned.  

For more:
- here's the article
- here's the poll

Read more about: Image Problems
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4. James Herbert II capably leads First Republic Bank

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Who says private equity owned banks can't work out?

Herbert is the CEO of San Francisco-based First Republic Bank, which specializes in jumbo mortgages. The bank has held up well as the financial services industry has rebounded. Several hedge funds are bullish on the bank. Robert Joseph Caruso's Select Equity Group had among the largest positions in First Republic Bank, worth close to $116.8 million. John Armitage of Egerton Capital holds a $43.1 million position. Other hedge funds with sizeable stakes include Renaissance Technologies, Conatus Capital Management and Osterweis Capital Management.

A few funds have turned less bullish just recently. And a Jefferies analyst has moved the stock to a hold from a buy.

But all in all, there are still plenty of bulls. "Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised their price target on shares of First Republic Bank from $37.00 to $40.00 in a research note to investors on Friday, April 26th. Separately, analysts at Sandler O'Neill raised their price target on shares of First Republic Bank from $38.00 to $40.00 in a research note to investors on Tuesday, April 16th. They now have a hold rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at FBR Capital Markets raised their price target on shares of First Republic Bank from $40.00 to $44.00 in a research note to investors on Tuesday, April 16th. They now have an outperform rating on the stock," notes theflyonthewall.

Forbes notes the recent history of the bank--how Herbert adroitly sold it to Merrill Lynch, which was subsequently bought by Bank of America. Herbert then took the bank private, with the help of private equity firms Colony Capital and General Atlantic.

"Before 2010 was out--a little more than five months after Herbert had led the purchase of First Republic from Bank of America--Herbert took First Republic public again in an IPO that priced at $25.5 a share, valuing the bank at $3.27 billion. The private equity shareholders made nearly a 70% return in some five months and rewarded Herbert with a boatload of stock options carrying an exercise price of $15 a share." He ended up a very rich man.

For more:
- here's the Forbes article

Read more about: CEO, First Republic
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5. Mortgage settlement report card coming soon

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

This week, regulators, Congress, and the public will likely get the first official "report card" on how well big lenders and servicers are doing as they try to live up to their promises as set by the national mortgage settlement, inked in February 2012. Former North Carolina Banking Commissioner Joseph Smith has been tasked with overseeing compliance and monitoring.

To be sure, there have been plenty of indications that, in some states anyway, the process has not been without hiccups. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has threatened to sue Bank of America and Wells Fargo, after his office received a litany of complaints about the banks. Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi has made similar threats.

An interim report from Smith's office noted that 5,700 complaints had been lodged since the settlement was agreed to. That said, the problems are not intense in every state. Some attorneys general have been eager to announce that funds are now flowing to aggrieved mortgage holders in their states. Some have even struck a sympathetic note when it comes to the banks.

The reality is that the national mortgage settlement holds banks to a fairly high standard in terms of customer service, and it might be unrealistic to think that all of a sudden, just because the executives have signed a $26 billion settlement, they can conjure up the business processes and systems necessary to remain fully compliant.

It may seem simple to ensure that a foreclosure notice doesn't go out while a modification negotiation is underway, but from a process point of view, it's not a snap. It's not like the banks had advanced systems to work with. In addition, the employees who handle all this tend to be low paid and poorly trained. There will be some horror stories.

Given that Smith is a reasonable guy not prone to drama, his report card will likely be balanced, which is about the most the banks can hope for given the anecdotal evidence.  

For more:
- here's the CNBC article

Read more about: National Mortgage Settlement
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Also Noted

SPOTLIGHT ON... People still chasing the hedge fund dream

According to data from Hedge Fund Research, just shy of 300 hedge funds were launched in the first quarter of 2013. That's the third-highest quarterly total since the beginning of 2008, which suggests that hedge fund dreams are alive and well. To be sure, the chances of success are not much higher these days. And the competition is as intense as ever, especially for small funds with scant track records. Indeed, average first quarter management fees fell 0.32 percentage points to 1.55 percent over the past year. Incentive fees fell 0.31 percentage point to 17.4 percent. Article

Company News: 
> JPMorgan to spin off PE unit. Article
> Ex-RBS trader loses employment suit. Article
> Chase, Citi reportedly hacked for millions. Article
Industry News:
> Bonds gain on data. Article
> Banks repossessing more homes. Article
> Banks embracing too much risk again. Article
> Hedge fund manager fears assassination. Article
> Reviving the Facebook IPO disaster. Article
> Goldman exec leaves for Guggenheim. Article
> KKR in bidding for Panasonic unit. Article

Regulatory News:
> Swiss panel recommends data exchange. Article

And finally … Destroying personal info is big business. Article


Events


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> Investment Consultants Forum - The Crowne Plaza Times Square, New York, NY - March 2, 2012

This conference provides a unique environment for developing dialogue between plan sponsors, managers and consultants. This event will feature panel-driven discussions focused on specific investment techniques of fixed income and hedge fund managers, the evolving role of institutional consultants, the manager evaluation process and more. Register today.

> NFC Ticketing Europe 2012 - March 20-21 - London

Come and join MasterCard, Renfe, Deutsche Bahn, Visa Europe, Orange, Arriva Netherlands, O2 and many more for the first event to bring together the whole NFC Ticketing industry for discussion, debate and quality networking. Click here.

> Public Funds Summit East - July 22-24 - Newport, RI - Newport Marriott

Opal Financial Group's annual public funds conference will address issues that are most critical to the investment success of senior public pension fund officers and trustees. The Summit will cover how surplus returns should affect employee benefit plans, the processes for selection and evaluation of investment managers, legal concerns with fund investment and management policies as well as the benefits and pitfalls of a wide variety of investment strategies. Register Now!

> 2013 ABA National and Graduate Trust Schools - September 22-27 - Atlanta, GA

Now is the time to become a more effective advisor and a more productive member of your client team. Let this executive-level program help you prepare for the next step in your career with an in-depth exploration of account administration, fiduciary law, and tax and estate planning. See complete details.

> ABA Compliance Schools - October 19-25 - Atlanta, GA

ABA Compliance Schools offer comprehensive bank regulation training programs for compliance professionals at all levels of expertise. In this highly engaging educational environment, learn how to comply with federal banking laws, including overview of new lending requirements to be implemented in 2014 at the ABA National Compliance School. Experienced professionals will learn advanced skills to manage their bank’s compliance program at the Graduate School of Compliance Risk Management. Learn more.



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