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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Wood Group, Betfair and Anpario


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 27th June 2013

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The Markets

New data has emerged which suggests that the UK economy did not actually suffer from a double-dip recession at the beginning of 2012. According to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy remained flat over the first three months of 2012 rather than exhibiting the originally estimated 0.1% contraction. This means that the UK economy did not demonstrate two successive quarters of contraction and therefore escaped a double-dip recession by the skin of its economic teeth. However, other data shows that real disposable income fell by 1.7% over the first three months of 2013 - the biggest quarterly drop since 1987 as inflation rose and wages fell in absolute terms. Victoria Clarke, Economist at Investec warned, "Overall it does look as if UK economic history has been revised in a negative direction. It certainly looks as if the UK is a step further away now from 'escape velocity'. We suspect that this, coupled with some inflation projections in August, will be enough to tilt the balance for the [Bank of England] to sanction more QE."

According to a new report by the British Geological Survey, there could be up to 1,300 trillion cubic feet of gas contained in rocks in the Bowland shale area in Lancashire, in a development which has the potential to transform the current UK energy market. To put the estimate into perspective, Britain consumed 2.76 trillion cubic feet of gas last year. On this basis a find of this size, even if all gas cannot be recovered, would meet decade's worth of British demand and significantly reduce Britain's increasing dependence on foreign gas imports. In response to the report, the Department for Energy issued a statement which said, "Though it is early days for shale in the UK, it has the potential to contribute to the UK's energy security, increase inward investment and growth."

Following on from Chancellor George Osborne's announcements on government cuts, his deputy, Danny Alexander, gave more insight into the government's infrastructure plans. Alexander revealed that 28 billion pounds would be spent on improving roads between 2014 and 2020 and also committed to spending around 30 billion pounds on railway investment over that period. It is hoped that the announcement will attract private sector cash by increasing confidence in the government's commitment to infrastructure. Inevitably, the plans did not convince the opposition as Chris Leslie, Labour MP. asked" When is the government going to pull its finger out and actually start to build some of these things?"

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 124.29 points at 15,034.43 and the Nasdaq grew by 20.21 points to 2,914.06.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 77.92 points at 6243.40 and the FTSE 250 surged by 193.48 points to 13,802.55. The FTSE All-Share increased by 43.88 points to 3,304.16 while the FTSE AIM Index was down by 0.28 points at 689.15.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on polymer designer Revolymer (REVO) with a target price of 93p. The broker believes that the company's nicotine gum business remains an important part of the investment case, with the product already on sale in Canada, with further territories to come. To that end, Panmure argues that the publication this morning of an influential editorial in the New York Times calling on the FDA to "move aggressively to protect the public" should be seen as positive to the nicotine gum business overall. The shares remained unchanged at 53.5p.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its "sell" stance on retailer Debenhams (DEB) with a target price of 70p. The broker feels that although the current valuation is "not particularly demanding", today's trading update was weak and lacked signs of medium-term growth. Furthermore, Cantor believes that Debenhams' UK operations could struggle to return to profit growth in the next 18 months with little new space addition, increasing on-line costs, reliance on promotions, pension cost increases and the Oxford Street refurbishment costs to carry. The shares climbed by 4.3p to 95.1p.

Northland Capital stuck with its "buy" stance on wood specialist Latham (LTHM) with a target price of 335p. The broker feels that the recent "measured" investment in Latham's sales function gives scope for margin appreciation. Moreover, Northland Capital is adamant that the company will benefit from recent EU regulations as it has been a long standing supporter and member of certification schemes such as PEFC and FSC. The shares slipped by 1p to 310p.

Blue-Chips

Engineering firm Wood Group (WG.) claimed that it is on course to deliver "good growth" over the first half of 2013 having been awarded work on projects in Canada, the Gulf of Mexico and Norway over the period. The group reserved a special mention for its PSN division, an oil and gas production services business, which is benefitting from good growth, led by performance in shale regions. The update comes after Deutsche Bank re-iterated its "buy" recommendation and 930p target price on Tuesday. The shares increased by 24.5p to 805.5p.

Mid Caps

Online betting exchange Betfair (BET) announced a 27% fall in underlying pre-tax profits to 38 million pounds for the year ended 30th April on flat revenues. The group, which was subject to a 1 billion pounds takeover offer last month, attributed its slump to lower capitalisation of development spend and the impact of regulation. Looking ahead, Betfair said that its new strategy should lead to an acceleration of revenue growth in its key UK market. The shares jumped by 13p to 843p.

Digital sports Media Perform Group (PER) warned that the group's recent change in revenue mix is "likely to modestly impact the rate of 2013 EBITDA growth". The group explained that advertising and sponsorship revenues made up a higher proportion of total revenues than expected which has created "some pressure on short term margins". However, Perform was adamant that the group remains on track to deliver strong revenue growth for the full year in line with the board's expectations. The shares did not perform well, finishing down by 42p at 540p.

Packaging group DS Smith (SMDS) posted an 86% increase in revenues to 3.67 billion pounds for the year ended 30th April, while pre-tax profits surged by 51% to 166.2 million pounds. DS Smith emphasised the positive impact of the acquisition of SCA Packaging, which helped to expand its footprint across Northern Europe. Promisingly, the company also upgraded its estimates on cost savings resulting from the acquisition and now expects SCA Packaging to save the group 120 million euros (102.7 million pounds), up from the originally estimated 75 million euros (64.6 million pounds). The shares were up by 12.9p to 252.7p.

Small Caps

Specialists in monitoring technology Elektron Technology (EKT) stressed that demand for the group's products remains "encouraging" and in line with the comparable period last year. However, the group did admit that sales were currently lagging behind orders as a result of two factory relocations and, on this basis, half year revenue and cashflow will be below expectations. Elektron hastened to add that the lag between sales and orders will recover during the second half of the year as manufacturing returns to historic levels of efficiency. The shares slid by 1.5p to 13.5p.

Agricultural player Anpario (ANP) claimed that it is in line to meet profit expectations for 2013 as its performance has been boosted by its Chinese subsidiary and Meriden Animal Health business. The group also confirmed that it has 5.2 million pounds of net cash on its balance sheet and revealed that it would be updating the market with interim results on 19th September. The shares climbed by 14p to 172.5p.

Gemstone producer Richland Resources (RLD) conceded that illegal mining took a heavy toll on its Tanzanite operations over the past year. Neighbouring miners tunnelling into Richland's operations put restrictions on where the company could operate, which lead to the loss of a significant amount of high grade tanzanite. Revenues in 2012 fell by 20% to $20.5 million (13.5 million pounds), swinging the company into a loss before tax of $13.2 million (8.67 million pounds) after it made a profit of $651,000 (428,000 pounds) the previous year. The shares slumped by 0.75p to 3.625p.

Mobile technology group Bango (BGO) has launched direct operator billing for Microsoft's Windows Phone Store with the Mobile Network Operator Indosat in Indonesia. The new feature allows Windows Phone users to easily purchase digital content with the cost charged directly to the customers phone bill, cutting out the need for the user to register any details. The financial details of the arrangement were not disclosed but management did hint that it could be rolling out the service into other territories in the short/medium-term. The shares increased by 4.5p to 185p.

In response to the recent drop off in share price Beacon Hill Resources (BHR) stressed that the recent "isolated security incidents" have had no impact on its mining operations in Tete, Mozambique. Although the group acknowledged that it expects "heightened political activity" to persist until the 2014 elections, Beacon Hill was adamant that its future rail operations would not be affected once they commence sometime in Q3 this year. The shares inched upwards by 0.005p to 2.29p.

Sirius Minerals (SXX) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Yunnan TCT Yong-Zhe Company for the sale of one million tonnes per annum of polyhalite for 10 years from 2017. Polyhalite is are used as a specialty fertilizer since it contains four important nutrients and is low in chlorine. Under the terms of the deal, TCT will pay a fixed fee for the first three years with a re-negotiation of pricing from the fourth year. Management said that the deal represents "the latest endorsement of the global demand for polyhalite." The shares crept upwards by 0.25p to 26.25p.

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