Kumaresan Selvaraj pillai


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Monday, June 3, 2013

| 06.03.13 | Dell special committee recommends original deal

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June 3, 2013
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Today's Top Stories

  1. Dell special committee recommends original deal
  2. Is a credit bubble about to pop?
  3. Lloyd Blankfein is top paid CEO
  4. Goldman Sachs' jobs still coveted
  5. CME censures Ex-Goldman Sachs exec


Editor's Corner: Great Rotation out of bonds on the horizon

Also Noted: Spotlight On... Loan growth declines in first quarter
Bain cancels sale of WorldPay unit; Treasury prices dip and much more...

News From the Fierce Network:
1. Wall Street's Flash memory boom
2. Finra ponders more dark trade transparency
3. Bank execs get help from FBI


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Editor's Corner

Great Rotation out of bonds on the horizon

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn


The idea of a looming Great Rotation out of traditional fixed-income products has been talked about at length in the asset management industry. You can count management consultants Casey, Quirk & Associates among those who believe the rotation is real.

A recent whitepaper estimates that U.S. investors, who are increasingly nervous about a zero- or rising- interest-rate environment, will withdraw up to $1 trillion from traditional fixed income products, "creating substantial risk for U.S. fixed income managers."

The great interest rate decline, which allowed asset managers to roughly double their fixed income revenue, will have to end at some point, and that point is now at hand.

"The upside/downside ratio on traditional fixed income products is unsustainably low. Individual and defined contribution investors are most exposed: they hold $5T in fixed income, and are not prepared for losses in this part of their portfolio," according to the firm's whitepaper.

"U.S. investors facing uncertain bond markets will shift $1 trillion of assets — almost 15% their current allocation to fixed income — from traditional fixed income products (core, core-plus, government and benchmark-oriented strategies) to next generation debt strategies, including global and emerging market bonds, high-yield and loan portfolios, alternative fixed income products, and vehicles designed to defend investors from inflation and rising rates."

In an optimistic prediction, the firm is betting that asset manager profitably rotate in innovative ways.

"This shift will raise annual revenue from next generation debt strategies— especially those with opportunistic, active investment approaches to find alpha from multiple sources — more than 60% between 2012 and 2017. By 2017 next generation debt strategies will represent nearly 80% of the annual revenue created by fixed income mandates from U.S. investors."

Of course, not all firms will fare well.

"It's hard to believe that the greatest bond bull market in history will end without some bloodshed," Michael Hartnett, the bank's chief investment strategist, wrote in a client note.

Some will no doubt fail to innovate and end up crushed -- a victim of the new paradigm. The question for fixed income managers now is determining how far they should go in terms of rotating out of traditional products and into next-generation products.   -Jim

Read more about: Great Rotation
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Events

> Investment Consultants Forum - The Crowne Plaza Times Square, New York, NY - March 2, 2012
> NFC Ticketing Europe 2012 - March 20-21 - London
> Public Funds Summit East - July 22-24 - Newport, RI - Newport Marriott
> 2013 ABA National and Graduate Trust Schools - September 22-27 - Atlanta, GA
> The 2013 Cyber Security Summit: September 25th New York, NY - September 25 - New York, NY
> ABA Compliance Schools - October 19-25 - Atlanta, GA

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Today's Top News

1. Dell special committee recommends original deal

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

As Carl Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management agitated for a better deal for Dell, it seemed for a moment that Michael Dell and Silver Lake would have to sweeten their bid. But then came more indications that the computer market was in disarray, and Michael Dell's offer started to look better.

At this point, it's hardly surprising that the Dell board's special committee, set up to grapple with buyout offers, has recommended that shareholders vote for the $13.65 a share deal as originally proposed by the founder of the company. The price represents a premium of approximately 37 percent over the average closing share price during the 90 calendar days ending January 11, 2013, the day prior to when rumors regarding the transaction entered the marketplace, the company notes.

The special committee issued an open letter to shareholders recommending that shareholders vote to approve the transaction at a vote set for July 18.

"Our analysis led us to conclude unanimously that a sale to the Michael Dell/Silver Lake group for $13.65 per share is the best alternative available – in a challenging business environment it offers certainty and a very material premium over pre-announcement trading prices. It also shifts very substantial risks to the buying group – risks that in any leveraged recapitalization would be retained by the stockholders and considerably magnified by leverage and the public nature of the resulting stub."

The public stub, of course, was the centerpiece of an alternative proposal from Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management, as a way for long-invested owners to avoid locking in massive capital losses.

They will no doubt mount a vigorous campaign to goad shareholders into voting against the deal. We may also see some legal action. The sorry state of the computer market, however, means they have an uphill battle.

For more:
- here's the release

Related Articles:
Financing not a problem for Icahn, Southeastern
Could Silver Lake walk away from Dell deal?
Dell special committee seeks more information
Silver Lake likely to proceed with Dell deal

 

Read more about: Carl Icahn, Leveraged Buyout
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2. Is a credit bubble about to pop?

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Perhaps the biggest question in the industry right now is the extent to which we are in the final days of a credit bubble, one that will inevitably pop, ushering in great portfolio pain. The debate has been raging, and you'll find plenty of rhetoric on both sides of the issue.

Breakingviews has weighed in with a bubble-meter that looks at five issues: low yields, too much debt, terms and conditions, financial engineering and investor complacency. On each issue, it assigns a score of 1 through 10, with 10 being the strongest indicator of a bubble. The average score is a 7. The highest score -- a 9 -- came in the terms and conditions category.

"In hot markets, issuers can get away with higher leverage ratios and looser lending terms. Currently, they are doing both," the author writes.

He continues, writing that, "The average debt-to-EBITDA multiples on U.S.-sponsored LBO deals has averaged 5.5 times this year and last, up from 4.2 times in 2009, according to LPC. Yet it's still below the 6.5 average in the 2007 LBO peak year. Meanwhile, issuance of so-called covenant-lite loans, which give lenders weak or no enforcement rights when borrowers' profits fall, has soared to all-time highs. And issuance of particularly lender-unfriendly Payment in Kind (PIK) loans was up around 13-fold last year from 2010, according to Morgan Stanley."

It's a sellers' market right now. In some ways, it feels like the pre-crisis days when issuers had their way. The power pendulum swung hard in the other direction for years, only to swing back in favor of issuers.

My sense is that enough people think that some sort of rotation out of debt is inevitable, and they are adjusting accordingly. We're already seeing indications of a looming migration into other asset classes, which bodes well for a graceful transition. The last think we want is a pin-pop burst that spreads pain like toxic confetti. Fortunately, a much gentler transition is more likely.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: Credit Bubble, Great Rotation
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3. Lloyd Blankfein is top paid CEO

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has returned to familiar terrain. Once again, he is the top paid CEO in the banking industry. In fact, 2012 was his best year since he set the world on fire with his 2007 compensation, which hit nearly $70 million.

As calculated by Bloomberg Markets, Blankfein was awarded $26 million for work rendered in 2012. By some metrics, the pay was richly deserved. Goldman Sachs generated its first revenue gain in three years, which is no small feat. It should be noted that the say-on-pay vote and an executive compensation vote at the recent annual shareholder meeting went fairly decisively in favor of management.

Still, the magazine ponders whether he deserved $26 million. Blankfein's compensation amounts to 73.3 percent pay hike, the biggest increase among the big-bank CEOs.

The article notes that, "His bank, the fourth largest by assets, posted a 43.4 percent stock return, also the fourth highest, and a 10.7 percent ROE, placing 11th. The average of these three rankings -- 6.3 -- was Goldman's average score" on the magazine's methodology.

"When Blankfein's No. 1 pay ranking was subtracted from 6.3, the difference -- 5.3 -- was the second biggest on the list, making him the second-most-overpaid chief," it said.

Ouch.

But at least he wasn't the number one most overpaid CEO in the industry. That dubious distinction fell to Richard Fairbank, CEO of Capital One, who made $17.5 million. Capital One's stock return of 37.5 percent was fifth, and its return on equity was 14th.

"Fairbank was the most overcompensated leader even after taking an 8.9 percent pay cut for 2012. Capital One spokeswoman Julie Rakes says that…Fairbank received no salary and his compensation was based on stock and tied to the company's performance."

For more:
- here's the article
 

Read more about: Goldman Sachs, banks
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4. Goldman Sachs' jobs still coveted

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, protests against big banks spread quickly across U.S. university campuses, especially in the Ivy League, that traditional feeding ground for top Wall Street banks.

As more students decried the ill effects of recruiting on campus and the legitimacy of big banking in general, you might have gotten the idea that working on Wall Street was seen as a retrograde career path. You would have been sorely mistaken.

A job at a top Wall Street firm, specifically at Goldman Sachs, is as coveted as it always was, judging from the number aspiring Goldman Sachs employees 2013. Goldman Sachs president Gary Cohn said recently that the bank received 17,000 applicants for its summer internship program, according to media reports. The bank hired just 350.

A summer internship at the gilded bank may be seen as a first step toward landing an analyst position at the bank upon graduation. And an analyst position would of course mark a stepping stone to greater glory, either at the bank or at another firm, most of which are eager to hire from Goldman Sachs.

Indeed, fresh-faced analysts are recruited aggressively almost from the moment they walk in the door, which has prompted the bank to act. For example, it recently got rid of the two-year program in favor of permanent employment, to keep talented fresh employees from decamping to hedge funds and private equity funds too soon.

You have to wonder if interns will become the target of aggressive recruiting efforts. It wouldn't surprise anyone.

For more:
- here's an article from The Guardian

 

 

 

Read more about: jobs, Graduates, career
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5. CME censures Ex-Goldman Sachs exec

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Morgan Stanley hired Glenn Hadden to run its interest rates swaps desk in 2011, knowing that he left Goldman Sachs after a string of controversies.

Once a high-flyer at Goldman Sachs, the bank put Hadden on paid leave in 2009. It came after the bank received complaints from the New York Federal Reserve Bank concerning various practices related to a Fed stimulus program. 

That might seem like a career setback, but Hadden soon quit and was hired by Morgan Stanley. According to media reports, Morgan Stanley executives at the time were satisfied he did nothing wrong. Another shocker emerged last year, however, when the media reported that the CME was investigating Goldman Sachs and Hadden for various abuses in the futures market that allegedly occurred in 2008. 

The CME has now announced the results of that investigation. Goldman has been ordered to pay an $875,000 fine and was cited for failure to supervise Hadden, who has been ordered to pay $80,000.

He also faces a 10-day suspension, starting July 15, from "directly accessing all CME Group Inc. trading floors, and indirect and direct access to all electronic trading and clearing platforms owned or controlled by CME Group Inc," as reported by DealBook.

"The sanction is likely to increase speculation about Mr. Hadden's future at Morgan Stanley. Last week Mr. Hadden's boss, Kenneth deRegt, the executive in charge of Morgan Stanley's fixed income department, announced he was retiring. That set off speculation inside Morgan Stanley that Mr. Hadden might also leave, or see his responsibilities diminished," Dealbook reports.

This is a tricky situation for Morgan Stanley, which certainly doesn't want to admit that it hired an executive with a "past" only to get burned. It may choose to maintain the status quo and hope the controversy dies down. In the end, there may be no further career consequences. 

For more:
- here's the article
 

Read more about: Enforcement Action, Morgan Stalney, Glenn Hadden
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Also Noted

SPOTLIGHT ON... Loan growth declines in first quarter

Many banks and credit unions have a lot of room to hike loans, but that doesn't mean it will happen. As noted by SNL, lending declined at most of the nation's largest banks, despite ample capacity and claims from smaller competitors that the mega-banks are engaging in pricing wars. At Bank of America, annualized quarter-to-quarter loan growth declined 3.75 percent. Citigroup saw a 4.75 percent decline. Capital One Financial reported a 15.7 percent decline, though seasonal factors may be at work. Article

Company news: 
>Bain cancels sale of WorldPay unit. Article
>Krawcheck speaks on "safe" investments. Article
>HSBC may sell Indonesian bank. Article
>Citi's victory over Terra Firma thrown out. Article
>Another servicing snafu at Wells Fargo? Article
>Bank of America says to sell Treasuries. Article

Industry news:
>Bubble hashtag is big. Article
>Junk bond growth slows. Article
>Banks talk to Sony about future. Article
>Treasury prices dip. Article
>Gold traders divided on future. Article
And finally … Millionaire money map. Article

 


Events


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* General ad info: Click here.

> Investment Consultants Forum - The Crowne Plaza Times Square, New York, NY - March 2, 2012

This conference provides a unique environment for developing dialogue between plan sponsors, managers and consultants. This event will feature panel-driven discussions focused on specific investment techniques of fixed income and hedge fund managers, the evolving role of institutional consultants, the manager evaluation process and more. Register today.

> NFC Ticketing Europe 2012 - March 20-21 - London

Come and join MasterCard, Renfe, Deutsche Bahn, Visa Europe, Orange, Arriva Netherlands, O2 and many more for the first event to bring together the whole NFC Ticketing industry for discussion, debate and quality networking. Click here.

> Public Funds Summit East - July 22-24 - Newport, RI - Newport Marriott

Opal Financial Group's annual public funds conference will address issues that are most critical to the investment success of senior public pension fund officers and trustees. The Summit will cover how surplus returns should affect employee benefit plans, the processes for selection and evaluation of investment managers, legal concerns with fund investment and management policies as well as the benefits and pitfalls of a wide variety of investment strategies. Register Now!

> 2013 ABA National and Graduate Trust Schools - September 22-27 - Atlanta, GA

Now is the time to become a more effective advisor and a more productive member of your client team. Let this executive-level program help you prepare for the next step in your career with an in-depth exploration of account administration, fiduciary law, and tax and estate planning. See complete details.

> The 2013 Cyber Security Summit: September 25th New York, NY - September 25 - New York, NY

The Cyber Security Summit provides a forum for attendees to learn about cyber security’s most vital issues by directly connecting them with emerging and established service providers, renowned speakers and powerful decision makers across multiple industries. Learn more at CyberSummitUSA.com. Use promo code "FIERCE" to save 50% off ticket prices.

> ABA Compliance Schools - October 19-25 - Atlanta, GA

ABA Compliance Schools offer comprehensive bank regulation training programs for compliance professionals at all levels of expertise. In this highly engaging educational environment, learn how to comply with federal banking laws, including overview of new lending requirements to be implemented in 2014 at the ABA National Compliance School. Experienced professionals will learn advanced skills to manage their bank’s compliance program at the Graduate School of Compliance Risk Management. Learn more.



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