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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Halfords, Dunelm and Prezzo



From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 10th April 2013

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The Markets

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) cut its forecasts for global trade growth in 2013 based on fears of the continuing impact of the Euro crisis and on risks that major economies may try to restrict trade further in an attempt to shore up domestic growth. The WTO slashed its forecast for global trade growth to 3.3% from 4.5% and confirmed that trade grew by only 2% in 2012. The 2012 growth figure was the lowest since records began back in 1981. The WTO’s director-general, Pascal Lamy, said, “the final trade numbers for 2012 are quite sobering" and suggested that "there is a need for more rules-based trade in order to reduce unemployment and to stimulate growth."

Spanish industrial output fell at a quickening rate in February according to figures from the nation's statistics office, INE. Output in February fell by 6.5% on January in a continuation of a trend which has seen industrial production in the country fall every month since August 2011. Things were more positive across the border in France where manufacturing in February came in slightly stronger than expected, with an 0.7% monthly increase. However, experts did not read too much into this, with Bruno Cavalier, Chief Economist at Oddo & Cie in Paris, commenting, "This isn't the beginning of the recovery. Confidence is dropping, even more so in services than industry. France is in recession and will stay there for at least several more months."

Over in Asia, car sales in India were down by 6.7% over the year ended 31st March 2013 in a fall which represents the first annual sales decline in a decade in the country. Many car producers began operations in India in recent years in the hope of capitalising on its huge population, rising incomes and long-term potential but are now having to offer massive discounts, with showrooms full of unsold vehicles. The consensus amongst analysts is that sales will continue to be sluggish as the country grapples with high borrowing costs and a general economic slowdown. Rakesh Srivastava, Senior Vice President of Hyundai Motor's India unit, said, " In the absence of any positive stimulus and sentiments... we foresee the pressure on volumes to continue until there is significant improvement in macroeconomic factors."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 127.42 points at 14,800.88 and the Nasdaq gained 50.04 points to 2,854.71.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 74.16 points at 6,387.37; the FTSE 250 finished 195.98 points up at 13,794.28; the FTSE All-Share grew by 39.80 points to 3,364.78; and the FTSE AIM Index edged up by 6.83 to 725.15.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital retained its "buy" recommendation on UTV Media (UTV) after its sports based national radio channel talkSPORT successfully renewed two packages of rights to broadcast audio coverage of the Premier League for three seasons commencing 2013/2014. The broker feels that Premier League rights packages offer good medium term security for the business and is also encouraged by UTV's recent success in extending the groupÂÂ's television licence for Northern Ireland. The shares remained flat at 155p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on supermarket Tesco (TSCO) with a 440p target price. The broker is of the belief that Tesco UK - which accounts for 60% of group profits - is on the road to recovery and that management's blueprint for the future has enough to suggest that it will emerge as a winner from digital disruption. Panmure goes on to say that the space race is over and puts forward its belief that Tesco shares will be re-rated as investors value new earnings streams more highly. The shares grew by 1.95p to 380.45p.

Canaccord Genuity re-iterated its "buy" stance on chemicals group AZ Electronic Materials (AZEM) with a 240p target price despite yesterday's warning that EBITDA margin would be "under 30%" for the first half of the year. The broker acknowledges that the impact of the announcement on sentiment is likely to be long-lasting but feels the implications for business fundamentals will be fairly contained. Canaccord went on to nail its colours to the mast by suggesting that the shares looked attractive on any metric on the back of yesterday's 35% fall in share price. The shares increased by 33.6p to 273.6p.

Blue-Chips

Mining giant Vedanta Resources (VED) reported increases in production across its copper, aluminium, lead, silver and oil & gas operations. Oil and gas production was up by 19% for the year ended 31st March 2013 to 205,323 barrels of oil equivalent per day primarily due to a strong performance in Rajasthan where several new discoveries were also made and regulatory approvals were received. In addition, copper production increased by 15% to 26,000 tonnes, boosted by an uplift in Australian production. The shares swelled by 63p to 1,179p.

Precious metals group Polymetal (POLY) announced has bought 100% of ZAO Maminskaya Gornorudnaya Kompania, which owns the Maminskoye gold deposit in Russia as well as the relevant mining licences, for a cash consideration of $3.9 million (2.5 million pounds) and shares in Polymetal worth $73.4 million (47.9 million pounds). The deposit in question is estimated to hold 12.2 million tonnes of ore at 1.9 grammes per tonne of gold, representing 0.7 million ounces of contained gold. The shares were up by 7p at 893p.

Mid Caps

Bicycle retailer Halfords (HFD) announced that it expects to deliver profits in line with expectations for the year ended 31st March 2013 after recording a 1% increase in revenue over the period. Retail sales were actually down by 0.9% over the year but this was more than offset by a strong performance from the autocentre arm which grew revenues by 13.5%. The update prompted broker Investec to re-iterate its "buy" recommendation on the shares with a 385p target price. The shares steered upwards by 17.2p to 333.3p.

Engineering group WS Atkins (ATK) expects to report full year results for the year ended 31st March 2103 slightly ahead of market expectations. The firm cited strong momentum within its UK business and improved margin for the second half of the year as reasons for this robust performance. However, the group did concede that it is still experiencing "soft" market conditions within its US business in a reflection of an increasing trend for Atkins having to subcontract services, diluting the business' margin in the process. The shares edged up by 9p to 896.5p.

Homewares retailer Dunelm Group (DNLM) reported a 15.4% growth in sales to 177.8 million pounds for the 13 weeks ended 30th March 2013 in an increase fuelled by three new store openings. Stripping out the effect of these new stores, sales were up by 5.2%. The group re-affirmed its intentions to have opened a total of 14 new stores over the current year in an initiative which will bring its total UK superstore portfolio to 126. The shares slid by 7p to 841p.

Small Caps & AIM

Oil and gas exploration company Oilex (OEX) has received approval from the relevant regulatory bodies in India to begin its Cambay drilling programme in the country. The program includes one firm horizontal well and four wells in a contingent drilling campaign. Broker Fox Davies commented, "The [approved] work programme for the next 12 months is good news, but the bigger question now is how they are going to pay for all of this activity". The shares jumped by 0.525p to 4.65p.

Supplier of boiler efficiency technology Sabien Technology (SNT) confirmed that it has been awarded a contract by a facilities management company, Norland Managed Services Ltd to provide its M2G boiler efficiency technology. Sabien did not reveal the exact value of the contract but did confirm that the deal - which involves the deployment of its M2G technology to 25 sites - represents "just under" 10% of the previous years' turnover. The shares inched inched up by 1p to 22p.

Akers Bioscience (AKR), the producer of diagnostic screening products, has received a second order from Chubeworkx Guernsey for the provision of 1.4 million CHUBE-branded, disposable breath alcohol detectors at a price of $420,000 (274,000 pounds). This latest batch of orders from Chubeworks brings its total orders to 4.9 million units with a value of almost $1.5 million (980,000 pounds). Subsequently, sales for the first half of the year are now expected to be above market expectations and, with help from a good level of sales of other products, full year sales are projected to be significantly ahead of current forecasts with the ongoing cost cutting exercise helping the company move into profit. The shares shot up by 0.2p to 1.425p.

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Advertising group MediaZest (MDZ) declared that it has secured a new contract which it expects to generate 1 million pounds in revenues over the next 18 months. The group did not reveal much about the deal and promised to give further details in an upcoming trading update. The shares rocketed by 0.16p to 0.27p.

Italian restaurant chain Prezzo (PRZ) posted a 17% increase in revenues to 144.5 million pounds for the 52 weeks ended December 2012, while statutory pre-tax profits increased from 16.1 million pounds to 17.3 million pounds. The operator of 211 restaurants cited the continued roll out of new stores coupled with "a pick-up in trading following the atypical sporting events of the summer" as reasons for its improvements. The shares were up by 3.25p at 87.25p.

Water treatment company Amiad Water Systems (AFS) announced an 11.8% increase in revenues to $131.1 million (85.6 million pounds) over 2012 while pre-tax profits were up from $8.3 million (5.4 million pounds) to $10.6 million (6.9 million pounds) over the period. Amiad partly attributed the increase in profitability to the delivery of a significant contract in Australia for seawater reverse osmosis membrane protection. However, the group went on to warn that the slowdown observed in the final quarter of 2012 in Europe and the US, particularly in the Municipal and Industrial segments, has continued into the first half of this year. The shares slipped by 3p to 318.5p.

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