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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Gold collapse to continue? A Special Report from UK-Analyst


Gold collapse to continue?


By top chartist Zak Mir of Zaks-TA.com


Zak Mir is perhaps the UK's best known chartist and his real time trading signals are ideal for the current volatile markets! Zak's-TA.com offers real-time trading signals and around 50 big calls per week on indices, blue chip stocks, commodities, small caps, AIM shares and member requests - CLICK HERE TO SET UP A FREE WEEK'S TRIAL


I am afraid to say that I never subscribed to the Gold Supercycle idea and the $2,000, $3,000, or $5,000 an ounce explosion idea touted by many of the less credible financial commentators out there. What the Gold bugs of course have apparently forgotten is how much this market has already climbed since the turn of the last decade when that silly man Gordon Brown decided it was time to sell off some of the UK's "family silver" by selling off large chunks of Gold at the bottom of the market – less than $300 an ounce in most cases. The correct way of looking at Gold is from the “Brown Bottom” up not to pick a pick upside figure such as $5,000 and justify why the metal should be there.

Indeed, although our former Chancellor got it totally wrong as far as exiting Gold on the "Death of Inflation" in terms of price, he was right in one sense, inflation never really returned. In fact, we seem to have been treated to the worst of all combinations, not inflation and hence no growth, but at the same time the value of money has continued to decline a pace.

In addition, all the bailouts in the Eurozone and in the UK banking sector have not delivered any real benefits to Gold, even though in the wake of the Cyprus Template one would have expected a massive surge through $2,000, rather than a crash below $1,500, with an alleged $20 billion sell order hitting the U.S. Gold Futures market this week. You would have to assume that such an order will take a long time to be swallowed up - even by bargain hunters.

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Perhaps the final insult as far as Gold is concerned has been the total inability for anyone who is not always bearish anyway to forecast the latest collapse. In fact, the wisest thing to do in 2013 would probably have been to wait on a break of 2012 resistance at $1,800 - one that never came, or of course taken heed when it was revealed that George Soros had lightened his holdings.

What of the future? The problem with this market is that most have been wrongfooted and most are still assuming that we shall see the Supercyle will return. Until these parties give up, Gold won't play ball.

The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level on the latest collapse is $1,434, the same level as the 200 week moving average on the weekly chart. Until $1,434 is cleared on a weekly basis the 8 year uptrend line at $1,290 is the target here. It should also be remembered that there is no particular reason why this market should bounce at all.


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Zak Mir is one of the UK's best known and experienced technical analysts, having over 2 decades of charting experience. He has spent well over 10,000 hours providing charts and technical analysis on Zaks-TA.com since its foundation in 2002. Zak is Head of Technical Analysis at t1ps.com, the former Technical Analysis Editor of Shares magazine, a contributor to the Investors Chronicle Trading Masterclass series and recently stormed to the top of the investment book charts with his ebook 101 Charts for Trading Success.

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We do not recommend or endorse any vendor/trainer/product/service other than our own. It is up to each member to decide whether what an advertiser offers is right for you. We take every care to ensure that scams and spamming are not run on this website, but we recommend that any purchaser/service user take every precaution possible to satisfy themselves of the authenticity of any service/product purchased and responsibility for this lies solely with the purchaser. 

 


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