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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Barclays, Kier and Range Resources



From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 24th April 2013

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The Markets

British retail sales fell in April for the first time in eight months according to figures from the Confederation of British Industry. The sales balance in the CBI's monthly distributive trades survey dropped to -1 in April from 0 in March - after 36%of firms reported that sales volumes were up on a year earlier and 37% said they were down - confounding analyst's expectations of a slight rise in activity. Sales of footwear and clothing exhibited the biggest fall, in a trend which was partly offset by a pickup in activity in food and furniture sales. Howard Archer, UK economist at IHS Global Insight, commented "disappointingly soft CBI distributive survey for April points to a poor start to retail sales in the second quarter, and fuels concern that consumers are reining in their spending as their purchasing power is squeezed by the move back up in inflation and low earnings growth."

The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a new low next week in an attempt to stimulate growth according to estimates from UBS and the Royal Bank of Scotland. It is thought that the ECB is now prepared to cut the base rate from 0.75% after a wave of uninspiring economic figures from countries all over the continent. RBS also cited the tone of the rhetoric which has been coming out of Brussels for its prediction. Richard Barwell, an economist at RBS in London, commented "The main reason for our call is the tone of the commentary over the past month by members of the Governing Council. Another month of weak, soft data on activity does not tell you that the recovery is permanently postponed, but it could tell you that the recovery has been pushed back another month –- and we think that is enough.”

Business confidence in Germany fell for a second successive month in April in a prime example of why the ECB may cut interest rates next week. The respected Ifo think tank revealed that its business climate index, based on a survey of about 7,000 firms, was down to 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March in a fall which represents caution amid an economy which is struggling to drive forward a economically floundering continent. However, economists are not too downbeat on the numbers and Ifo economist Kai Carstensen commented, "Although the majority of companies assessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than last month. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. The German economy is taking a breather.”

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 15.85 points at 14,703.61 and the Nasdaq fell by 3.88 points to 2,831.49.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 25.64 points to 6,431.76; the FTSE 250 finished 77.64 points up at 13,895.10; the FTSE All-Share grew by 14.12 points to 3,388.25; and the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 3.15 points to 702.77.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Singer maintained its "buy" recommendation on sausage skin maker Devro (DVO) with a 371p target price. The broker is impressed with the group's current productivity investment programme which, in the broker's opinion, is driving efficiency gains and helping it to maintain a competitive and technological advantage over its peers. Fundamentally, N+1 Singer cited rising global protein demand, emerging market exposure and solid self funded organic growth as further reasons for its "buy" recommendations. The shares rose by 8.4p to 325p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on sportswear retailer Sports Direct (SPD) with an unchanged target price of 500p. The broker was impressed with today's update which unveiled an excellent sales performance characterised by growing online penetration in a trend which could drive Panmure's valuation upwards if maintained. Furthermore, Panmure feels that the accelerated push into international markets brings long term potential, with plans to expand into all 17 countries that have adopted the Euro within five years. The shares were up by 7.9p to 454.5p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on asset management giant Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) with a 460p target price. The broker expects another set of good numbers from Aberdeen when it reports next Monday, boosted by an improved performance from within its fixed income operations. Canaccord is also excited on the possibility of further bolt on acquisitions which could broaden the Aberdeen Franchise in the next year. The shares remained flat at 416p.

Blue-Chips

Banking group Barclays (BARC) announced a 25% fall in adjusted pre-tax profits to 1.78 billion pounds for the three months to March in a fall blamed on restructuring costs. Stripping out the group's transformational costs and other non-recurring payments, underlying pre-tax profits were actually up by 6%. Barclays said it had set aside 500 million pounds over the period in order to reduce its European retail branch network and re-position its equities and investment banking operations in Asia and Europe. The group went on to say that it had set aside a further 500 million pounds this year to push these initiatives to their close. The shares slid by 3.75p to 294.55p.

Insurance group Standard Life (SL.) oversaw a 7% increase in assets under administration to 233.1 billion pounds for the first three months of the year. The group attributed this increase to a pickup in activity in its core UK market where there was a 24% increase in the sales of long term savings products. Recent consensus amongst brokers on the shares has been mixed, with Exane BNP Paribas and JP Morgan issuing "outperform" and "overweight" recommendations in recent weeks while Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse have issued "undeperform" and "underweight" stances. The shares increased by 28.2p to 380.7p.

Business support group Reed Elsevier (REL) revealed that revenue growth for the first three months of this year was in line with 2012, with prospects looking particularly good in its Risk Solutions and Information units. The group revealed that its medical division is set to deliver a year of "modest" growth but the legal arm's outlook doesn't look as bright with its customer markets subdued at present. The shares remained unchanged at 778.5p.

Mid Caps

Computacenter (CCC), the IT infrastructure provider, announced that revenues remained flat at 659 million pounds for the first three months of the year as a drop off in German sales offset revenue growth in the UK. Revenues in Germany were 7% down on last year as the group focused on resolving existing contractual issues over the winning of new services. With regards to growth in the UK, the group conceded that the comparator from 2012 for growth will get more challenging from now, but feels that its prospect pipeline has increased to an extent in which current growth rate levels can be maintained for the foreseeable future. The shares were down by 67.9p to 470.1p.

Construction firm Kier (KIE) remains on track to meet market expectations for the year ended June 30th and has secured 400 million pounds worth of work in the first three months of the year. Separately, the group revealed that it has come to an agreement on an offer for fellow construction group May Gurney in an agreement which values May Gurney at 221 million pounds. Under the agreement, Kier will pay 50 pence in cash and 0.2095 new shares for each May Gurney Share. The shares fell by 66p to 1,199p.

Online retail group N Brown Group (BWNG) posted a 2.6% increase in pre-tax profits to 96.4 million pounds for the year ended 2nd March on revenue growth of 6% to 784.7 million pounds. The group attributed these increases to an uplift in activity within the US and an increase in mobile transactions which now account for 55% of all sales. The update prompted broker Jeffries to retain its "buy" recommendation on the shares. The shares swelled by 26.6p to 446.7p.

Small Caps

Summit Corporation* (SUMM), the drug discovery group, announced that its narrow-spectrum antibiotic SMT 19969 for the treatment of C. difficile infection has successfully completed a phase 1 clinical trial.  The top-level results provide an encouraging indication of the efficacy and specificity of SMT 19969 in CDI patients and also showed that the drug was "safe and well tolerated at therapeutically relevant doses". The update seems to support equity research body GECR's "speculative buy" stance which it retained last week. The shares inched up by 0.3p to 4.8p.

Roof installer Hightex Group (HTIG) announced that pre-tax losses fell to 1.2 million euros (1.02 million pounds) from 5.5 million euros (4.7 million pounds) over 2012 despite a slight drop in turnover to 17.7 million euros (15.1 million pounds). The bulk of the group's revenues were generated from contracts in Brazil including work on the famous Maracana stadium in Brazil. In addition, significant progress was made in the Membrane and Cable division with losses cut by 77% and margins improving to around 15%. The shares grew by 0.15p to 1.58p.

Low cost African airline Fastjet (FJET) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Blockbuster, a South African investment company, with a view to commencing Fastjet operating services in South Africa by the end of May. Crucially, a commercial arrangement has been struck between Blockbuster and local operator Federal Airlines, which should allow Fastjet to leverage Federal Airline's existing licensing infrastructure and deliver its low-cost airline model to the South African public. The shares dived by 0.59p to 1.41p.

Recruitment software group Dillistone (DSG) announced a 29% increase in revenues to 7.1 million pounds for 2012, with pre-tax profits up by 20% to 1.684 million pounds. A particular highlight for the group was the fact the recurring revenues grew by 39% to 4.53 million pounds as the group expanded its client base with a new customer signing up for its FileFinder package every other working day on average. The shares jumped by 3.5p to 80.5p.

Electronics distributor Advanced Power Components (APC) revealed that its subsidiary, Minimise Ltd, has secured a 2.8 million pounds order from an unnamed UK major retailer for the supply of efficient LED lights to many of its UK stores. Minimise also revealed that it has received orders from a major UK transport infrastructure company for energy efficient LED lighting and for remote monitoring systems in a smaller order as it looks to grow its client base. The shares were up by 1.5p to 30.75p.

Oil exploration group Range Resources (RRL) has made a merger offer to International Petroleum (IP) on a ratio of three Range ordinary shares for every two IP shares in an offer which values IP at A$105 million (70.5 million pounds). Range feel that a merger would accelerate expansion and development of projects in Trinidad, Russia and onshore Africa. If the transaction goes ahead, the newly formed group would hold 23.6 million proven, 100 million probable and 264 million barrels of possible reserves of oil across six countries as well as approximately 156 billion cubic feet of gas. The shares lost 0.6p, finishing the day at 3.34p.

Video search engine Blinkx (BLNX) expects to post annual revenues of $196 million (128.4 million pounds) for the year ended 31st March which would represent a 71% increase on the previous year's results. Pre-tax profits are expected to come in at around $15 million (9.8 million pounds), a significant uplift from the $1.9 million (1.24 million pounds) which was recorded the previous year in numbers which reflect the accelerating consumption of video content online. The shares soared by 15.5p to 93p.

* Summit is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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