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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring The Budget, Greggs and ASOS



From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 20th March 2013

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The Markets

AIM companies and the shale gas industry received a boost from George Osborne's 2013 Budget speech. The Chancellor promised to abolish stamp duty on all share transactions across both the AIM and ISDX markets, in news that comes just a week after the Treasury announced plans for a proposed move that could see AIM shares allowed to be included in ISAs. Reaction to the proposal was mainly positive but Richard Gill, editor of small cap specialist investment website t1ps.com, commented, "The move is certainly not a negative one but in our opinion will have very little effect on liquidity and demand for shares in these markets. Stamp Duty amounts to just 0.5% of every transaction - 50p in every £100 - so is hardly likely to attract more investment in markets in which investors are looking for high double and treble digit gains".

Osborne also gave a boost to the shale gas sector by revealing that the government was to introduce generous new tax regimes which would accelerate early investment into shale gas. A recent survey by accountancy group PriceWaterhouseCooper estimated the value of the UK shale gas opportunity at around 33 billion pounds and the Chancellor will be hoping that his tax incentive will help the country to tap into this potential sooner rather than later. George Osborne said, "Shale gas is part of the future and we will make it happen."

Staying with the Budget, George Osborne admitted that the UK economy is now on track to grow by just 0.6% this year, down from the previously forecast 1.2% growth. The Chancellor went on to concede that the UK's national debt will rise to a peak of 85% of GDP and would not begin to fall until 2017/18, two years later than was originally targeted. In an attempt to attract new business into the country Mr Osborne announced a cut in corporation tax to 20% in a package of measures designed to "help those who want to work and get on" while petrol duty remains frozen. Other measures included a cut in the price of beer by 1p per pint and initiatives aimed at stimulating the housing market. However, everyone was not charmed with the new measures and the announcement drew inevitable criticism from Labour leader Ed Milliband who said, "All he offers is more of the same – higher borrowing and lower growth."

Hours before the budget new figures showed that UK unemployment rose by 7,000 to 2.52 million between November and January. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS ) revealed that the rise was fuelled by an increase in the number of people out of work between the ages of 16-24 to 993,000. Martina Milburn, Chief Executive of the Prince's Trust, said: "Youth unemployment is now back on the rise, and urgent action is needed before thousands more young people find themselves out of work." The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland was up to 8.5%, its highest level in 15 years.

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 57.58 points at 14,513.40 and the Nasdaq had gained 11.43 points to 2,798.70.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 8.62 points at 6,432.70; the FTSE 250 finished 5.24 points down at 14,030.68; the FTSE All-Share was down by 1.53 points to 3396.03; and the FTSE AIM Index grew by 4.56 points to 743.65.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation on bookmaker William Hill (WMH) and increased its target price from 436p to 475p. The broker sees William Hill's earnings mix as highly attractive post the acquisition of Sportingbet's assets and feels as if its UK cashflows are relatively resilient as a result. Furthermore, Panmure feels as if the bookmaker is well placed in the growing online markets of Australia, Spain and Italy as it continues to adapt to the growing significance of online-sourced revenue. The shares inched up by 0.3p to 386p.

Cannacord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on semiconductor wafer producer IQE (IQE) with a 65p target price. The broker is encouraged by the recent acquisitions of RFMD and Kopin Wireless and feels as if the new businesses will give IQE the firepower to win more contracts, increase bargaining power with suppliers and diversify customer base. Canaccord went a step further and said the acquisitions make IQE the clear leader in the wireless market with a 50-60% share. The shares slipped by 1.5p to 28p.

N+1 Singer maintained its "buy" recommendation on Trap Oil (TRAP) with a target price of 30p. The broker noted that its Magnolia exploration well (TRAP: 10%, carried) has not encountered any significant hydrocarbons and is therefore due to be abandoned and plugged. However, N+1 Singer is not too concerned with this development as the well was not a significant part of its NAV. Additionally, the carried interest means that the company was not exposed financially. The shares lost 0.875p to 15.25p.

Blue-Chips

Oil and gas services group Wood Group (WG.) has secured 11 new contracts in Africa worth a combined $240 million (158.64 million pounds) for projects spanning five countries. Wood Group PSN, provider of brownfield production services, has won contracts to provide maintenance services to customers in Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Algeria, while the group's equipment subsidiary, Wood Group GTS, has secured a long-term deal with an operator in Ghana. Furthermore, Wood Group's engineering Mustang business agreed a deal to engineer wellhead platforms and a living quarters platform for an offshore project in Angola. The shares fell by 2.5p to 855.5p.

Technology business Smith's Group (SMIN) announced a 4% growth in revenues to 1.475 billion pounds for the six months ended 31st January 2013, while pre-tax profits were up by 3% at 223 million pounds. The rise in profitability was boosted by an increase in margins across all of the divisions except Smith's Medical where the group increased its investment in sales and marketing in emerging markets. Smith's industrial John Crane business performed particularly well and benefited from increased demand from aftermarket customers, especially in the oil and gas sector. The shares crept up by 2p to 1,320p.

Mining giant Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC) posted an 11% decline in revenues to $6.32 billion (4.2 billion pounds) for 2012, swinging the group into a pre-tax loss of $550 million (363.5 million pounds) after it recorded a profit of $2.7 billion (1.8 billion pounds) in 2011. The group attributed the poor performance to a material decline in the prices of its major commodities during the year, particularly ferroalloys and iron ore. Despite these worrying results, Deutsche Bank keeps faith in the stock and retained its "buy" recommendation with a target price of 380p. The shares were down by 5.8p at 306.9p.

Mid Caps

Britain's largest baker Greggs (GRG) reported a 2.2% fall in pre-tax profits to 51.9 million pounds for the 52 weeks ended 29th December 2012 on a 2.7% dip in like-for-like sales. The baker attributed the dip in profits to "challenging market conditions" as well as wet weather throughout the year. Greggs went on to reveal that coffee is a particularly fast-growing product in terms of sales, with a total of 21 million cups sold over the year representing an increase of 23% on 2011. The shares tumbled by 43.5p to 480p.

Property investment group UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCM) announced a 5.9p fall in NAV per share to 69.6p. The group attributed this drop off in value to a 4.5% decrease in its portfolio values, adverse SWAP movements and acquisition costs on the purchase of its industrial portfolio back in February 2012. On a positive note, rental income generated by the group increased by 9.2% in 2012 due to 164 million pounds worth of acquisitions over the last two years. The shares slipped by 0.45p to 68p.

Small Caps & AIM

Online retailer ASOS (ASC) reported a 37% year-on-year increase in sales to 186.5 million pounds for the three months ended 28th February 2013. Trading in the UK was particularly impressive as the region exhibited a 28% growth in sales boosted by robust trading over the traditionally strong December period. Furthermore, despite the gloomy economic conditions in the EU, sales in the region grew by 58% to 44.1 million pounds as the group established its in-country teams in both France and Germany. The shares soared by 244p to 3,355p.

Cloud technology firm Forbidden Technologies* (FBT) announced that Californian firm, Key Code Media has signed a distribution agreement for its FORscene video editing platform. Forbidden Technologies said that the deal should raise its profile in the US, helping it to break into the lucrative post-production market in the country. Key Code Media was founded in 2001 and supports and sells digital communication systems to customers worldwide. The shares grew by 3.5p to 27p.

Media Corporation* (MDC) has entered into an agreement with Boxing Channel Media Limited to provide betting services to BoxNation, its TV channel. The deal is for an initial period of three years and is subject to an initial feasibility phase for the first three months. The move is line with the group's strategy of using its intabet software platform to tap into revenue sharing agreements with other media organisations. The shares jumped by 0.01p to 0.13p.

Technical consultancy firm WYG (WYG) expects operating profits to be ahead of market expectations by 10%, despite lower levels of generated revenues. The group cited good profitable performances from its Defence & Justice and Energy & Waste divisions as reason for the improvement. In addition WYG said that it has made progress in its overseas markets and added "significant new clients and projects" to its portfolio. The shares increased by 3.5p to 74.5p.

Insurance firm CPP Group (CPP) announced that it has reached no agreement on any financing solutions since December last year. Over the last 3 months the group has been actively searching for financing options in advance of the maturity of the company's debt facilities due on 31st March . CPP went on to concede that, even if a financing solution is agreed, it is unsure on what value this will provide shareholders given the current trading price of the shares. The shares plummeted by 9p to 5.5p.

Investor in African infrastructure Lonrho (LONR) announced that the "easyhotel by Lonrho" hotel in Johannesburg will open on the 26th March 2013 and will offer 60 rooms across 7 floors. The hotel - built under a franchise agreement with easyGroup - will provide affordable accommodation and builds on the reputation of the "easy" brand as being a reliable value for money brand. The shares slid by 0.91p to 4.75p.

* Forbidden Technologies and Media Corporation are corporate clients of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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