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Sunday, March 24, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring BP, Mulberry and the Weekly Competition



From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 22nd March 2013

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Competition

The UK-Analyst Friday competition is back! For your chance to win 2 tickets to this year's Ideal Home Show in London (courtesy of our friends at Yakult) send us your funniest caption for the picture of George Osborne below. Send your entry to richard.gill@t1ps.com by 9am on Monday morning.

Yakult's friendly staff will be giving out free samples and chatting to visitors about the fascinating 75 year history behind the little bottle. Come and meet them on stand 2F60. For further information see www.yakult.co.uk

The Markets

EU officials initiated the next round of negotiations with the Cypriot government on a bailout package as discussions between Russia and Cyprus on a potential deal broke down. It is thought that Cypriot officials suggested that it could "wind down" Laiki, the island's second largest bank, which could then be split into to a bank for deposits under 100,000 euros and a separate institute for larger accounts where savers would be forced to pay a levy on their savings. The plan also included a potential 2 billion euro fundraise from state pension funds and bond issues based on future revenues from offshore gas deposits. However, this deal was rejected by European ministers as Monday's deadline for an agreement looms large. Bank Of Cyprus Chairman Andreas Artemis warned, "It should be understood by everyone... especially from the 56 members of parliament... there should not be any further delay in the adoption of the eurogroup proposal to impose a levy on deposits more than 100,000 [euros] to save our banking system."

Britain's wholesale gas prices shot up to record highs as one of its primary gas import pipelines shut down unexpectedly. The shutdown of the pipe linking Britain and Belgium came at the worst possible time for the country as coal plants continue to close, maintenance work bodes in Norway and the latest round of late wintery weather all put pressure on supply. The price for gas peaked at 150p per therm, a 50% increase on Thursday's closing price. The pipeline was re-opened around mid-day but at a significantly reduced capacity. Despite the apparent alarm on the underlying capability for BrItain to meet its gas needs, a spokeswoman from the Department of Energy and Climate Chane (DECC) commented, "Protracted cold weather increases demand, but the UK gas market is responsive and our gas needs are continuing to be met."

Staying in the UK, housing industry experts have warned that plans to promote an economic recovery by helping home-buyers have the potential to create a new housing bubble. The plans - first revealed in Wednesday's budget announcement - involve the government shouldering the risk of billions of pounds in mortgages by allowing Britons to purchase properties with relatively small down payments. The initiative has received mixed reception, with some parties alarmed on how much risk the government is willing to take. Mark Farmer, head of private residential at building consultancy EC Harris, said, "It's a gamble..If people start defaulting on their mortgages ... then the taxpayer will end up bailing them out."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 74.61 points at 14,496.10 and the Nasdaq lost 19.00 points to 2,793.85.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 4.21 points at 6,392.76; the FTSE 250 finished 23.21 points down at 13,957.61; the FTSE All-Share was up by 1.78 points to 3373.74; and the FTSE AIM Index fell by 6.86 points to 735.20.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on cough-causer Imperial Tobacco (IMT) with a target price of 2,900p. The broker feels that the group's current 300 million pound cost savings programme, coupled with clearer brand portfolio prioritisation, are sensible moves for Imperial. The broker does forecast H1 volume declines of around 8% but is adamant that this will be offset by a slower rate of investment increases in the last part of the year. The shares fell by 25p to 2,291p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on meat packing company Hilton Food Group (HFG) with a target price of 360p. The broker is of the opinion that the group has set solid foundations in the last 12 months with the successful commissioning of a robotic store-order picking system in Denmark and the announcement of its joint-venture with Woolworths in Australia. However, the broker does admit that volumes could be down in the short term due to the ongoing horsemeat issue. The shares were up by 2.75p to 334.75p.

Northland Capital retained its "buy" recommendation on mining group Stratex International (STI) following the sale of its 45% stake in the Inlice deposit. The broker believes that the sale is positive news for shareholders as the asset was not of great importance and that the funds raised can now be re-deployed on the potentially higher impact exploration projects. In addition, Northland is excited about the group's plans to accelerate exploration at existing projects as well as its plans to pursue an aggressive acquisition strategy and feels that the shares are "remarkably cheap". The shares slid by 0.5p to 4.875p.

Blue-Chips

Oil giant BP (BP) announced that it is to buy-back around $8 billion (5.25 billion pounds) worth of its own shares following the $12.48 billion (8.2 billion pounds) sale of its 50% interest in TNK-BP to Rosenoft yesterday. The buy-back is an attempt to return the value of the company's investment into TNK back in 2003 to shareholders. BP intends to retain the additional cash consideration of $4.48 billion (2.94 billion pounds) received from the sale of its interest in TNK-BP to reduce debt as part of its continuing commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. The shares climbed by 8.3p to 457.7p.

Mid Caps

Online information and events group Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) warned that revenues for the six months to March 31st look likely to be down by 1% on last year. Subscription based revenue is set to be down by 1% on 2012 as a result of a cut back in custom from global financial institutions who continue to cut costs and employees in the face of the general concern over the financial services industry worldwide, particularly in Europe. The shares were down by 24p at 906p.

Insurer and boiler repair group Homeserve (HSV) revealed that it is cutting 300 staff as its UK business struggles to retain a sustainable number of customers. The group went on to warn on profits for the next two years and conceded that a shift in its marketing policies had failed in a bid to halt a declining rate of customer numbers in Britain for its household repairs and insurance services. The shares lost 11.6p to 211.40p.

Phoenix Group (PHNX), a consolidator of pension funds, posted pre-tax profits of 290 million pounds for 2012, a swing from a loss of 177 million pounds in 2011 in a reflection of one-off benefits deriving from system and modelling improvements. The news prompted broker Investec to re-iterate its "buy" recommendation on the group with a 734p target price. The shares were up by 44p at 649.5p.

Small Caps & AIM

Designer brand Mulberry (MUL) issued a profits warning for the year ended 31st March after "weaker than anticipated post-Christmas revenues". The group maintained that sales over the Christmas period were in line with expectations but conceded that sales in the first 10 weeks of this year have been disappointing and that there was a noticeable drop off in tourist spend across its London's stores. As a result, Mulberry expects to deliver revenues of 165 million pounds for the year ended 31st March of which 26 million pounds will be recorded as pre-tax profits. The shares dived by 211p to 1,024p.

Manufacturers of heating appliances Turbotec (TRBO) intends to delist from the AIM market as the directors feel the group's current market capitalisation has become "disassociated with its inherent value". Furthermore, management feels as if the falling share price has had a de-motivating effect on the employees of the business and has also caused undue alarm amongst customers. The shares plummeted by 10p to 10.5p.

Energy services group Thalassa Holdings (THAL) confirmed that its WGP Energy Services subsidiary has entered into a further agreement with Sevmorgeo, the Russian geological sea survey company. Under the new agreement Thalassa will provide equipment and services as part of the seismic data acquisition surveys being conducted by SMG in Ecuador. The new deals will bring the total revenue generated in relation to these surveys to $6.7 million (4.4 million pounds) . The shares jumped by 7.5p to 157.5p.

Stamp dealer Stanley Gibbons (SGI) announced an 11% increase in adjusted pre-tax profits to 6 million pounds for 2012 despite a slight drop in revenues from 35.7 million pounds to 35.6 million pounds. The group cited the acquisition of online trading platform bidStart as well as its expansion into Hong Kong as reasons for its growth. The shares slipped by 3.5p to 276.5p.

Oil and gas producer Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG) revealed that revenues nearly tripled to 16.3 million euros (13.9 million pounds) in 2012 and operational profit stood at 4.1 million euros (3.5 million pounds) in contrast to the 1.8 million euros (1.53 million pounds) the group recorded in 2011. The group attributed this success to an improving production performance in its assets onshore and offshore Italy, underpinned by its Guendalina field which averaged a rate of 4.1 million square cubic feet of gas per day. The shares were down by 0.13p to 10.13p.

Oil exploration company Enegi Oil (ENEG) revealed that it has acquired data which will allow it to assess the feasibility of drilling a well on the Phoenix discovery in the North Sea. The company will now undertake its own in-house analysis and modelling in an attempt to ascertain the full range of resources available in the Phoenix discovery. This includes analysis currently being carried out by partner Azimuth Limited which should help to determine the viability of further appraisal and development. The shares edged up by 0.25p to 10.875p.

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