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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Sainsburys, Cairn Energy and Pennant International



From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 19th March 2013

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The Markets

UK inflation rose to a nine-month high in February. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Consumer Price Inflation grew to 2.8% after remaining steady at 2.7% since October, in an increase consistent with analysts' expectations. The ONS attributed the bulk of the increase to an hike in domestic fuel bills and upward pricing pressures on electronic goods such as cameras and computer games. Sterling rose against the dollar on the back of the news, suggesting that some investors feel it is less likely for the Bank of England to now embark on further rounds of quantitative easing as a result of the increase. However, Peter Dixon, an Economist at Commerzbank, said, "What does it mean for the Bank of England? Not a lot. I don't think high inflation will act as a deterrent to their desire to do something else if they want to."

Staying in the UK, average house prices increased by 2.2% to 234,000 pounds between January 2012 and January 2013, although Northern Ireland and Scotland exhibited average price declines of 0.2% and 5.4% respectively. Again according to the ONS, annual growth was driven by upward pricing pressure in London and the South East of England where demand remains strong. Ahead of tomorrow's Budget announcement economists have called for government to assist first time buyers onto the property ladder, with Jonathan Harris, Director of Mortgage Broking at Anderson Harris, commenting, "It is essential that the Chancellor uses tomorrow's Budget to assist first-time buyers further as this would help boost the housing market as a whole."

Over in Asia, the Indian Central Bank has cut interest rates from 7.75% to 7.5% in an attempt to revive economic expansion. Growth levels in India have been hit by significant slowdowns in the manufacturing and services sectors in recent months, while foreign investors have held back on fears that delays in key regulations may dampen growth levels in the short-term. The opinion amongst analysts is that the lowering of interest rates could steadily continue as the year progresses, with Rupa Rege Nitsure, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda in Mumbai, commenting, "There is unlikely to be any aggressive easing, but easing will continue at a gradual pace going ahead."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 31.30 points at 14,420.76 and the Nasdaq slipped by 14.85 points to 2,777.45.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 16.60 points to 6,441.32; the FTSE 250 finished 53.83 points down at 14,035.92; the FTSE All-Share was down by 9.10 points to 3397.56; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped by 3.18 points to 739.00.

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Broker Notes

Cannacord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on housing services firm Mears Group (MER) with a target price of 440p. The broker expects recent healthy levels of organic growth to be sustained in 2013, boosted by existing contracts and an attractive 1.7 billion pounds worth of projects in the pipeline. Furthermore, the group feels as if Mears' care business has medium-term growth potential despite an "unexciting" outlook for 2013-14 given the fact that many local authorities have cut the number of hours of commissioned care. The shares fell by 2.5p to 371p.

Shore Capital re-iterated its "buy" recommendation on pub operator Spirit Group (SPRT) despite a recent drop off in like-for-like sales attributed to the snowy weather. The broker is encouraged by Spirit's pledge to meet full year market expectations with the help of a 100bps margin improvement. Furthermore, Shore Capital sees the potential for the group to exhibit a significant level of growth this summer given last year's poor comparatives, which were muted by poor weather. On this basis the broker is keeping its fingers crossed for dry weather over the summer months in a trading period set to be boosted by the Ashes test series. The shares remained flat at 67p.

N+1 Singer maintained its "sell" recommendation on media group Johnston Press (JPR) with a target price of 8p. The broker notes that Johnston Press is maintaining its debt reduction focused strategy while simultaneously attempting to realign its products with the expected nature of future demand. However, N+1 Singer feels as if this is a tough strategy to follow when loaded with debt and on this basis sees little return for shareholders while leverage remains high and dividends elusive. The shares slipped by 0.75p to 12.5p.

Blue-Chips

Supermarket Sainsbury's (SBRY) revealed a 4.2% increase in like-for-like sales for the 10 weeks ended 16th March 2013, while total sales grew by 7.1%. Sainsbury's said that its Valentine's Day and Mother's Day promotions were particularly strong and that it performed resiliently during the periods of heavy snow in January. Over the 10 weeks the group added three supermarkets and 19 convenience stores to its portfolio, increasing its space by 5%, which is in line with its target rate of expansion. The shares climbed by 6.2p to 371.4p but technical analyst Zak Mir thinks they could rise to 400p imminently. CLICK HERE for his analysis.

Microchip manufacturer Arm Holdings (ARM) announced that its CEO, Warren East, has decided to retire from the company after 12 years in his current position and a total of 19 years with the company. Simon Segar, currently President of ARM, will be the new CEO. Simon has been with ARM since 1991 and has held senior positions within the group both in the UK and USA. Recent consensus on the company amongst brokers has been positive, with Jefferies and Bank of America allocating "buy" recommendations to the shares. Arm shares finished down by 24p at 896.5p.

Mid Caps

Industrial printing firm Domino Printing Sciences (DNO) revealed that sales were up by 11% for the 4 months ended 28th February 2013 but remained cautious on prevailing market conditions in Europe. Growth over the 4 months was boosted by a 9% rise in equipment revenues, while service revenues increased by 13%. Domino went on to warn that it notes "a level of reluctance" in existing customers to reinvest in replacement equipment, particularly in Europe, but is adamant that activity in North America and Asia is returning to "more normal levels". The shares were down by 45p at 655p.

Packaging specialist Filtrona Sciences (FLTR) has acquired 100% of the share capital of Contego Healthcare Limited, in a deal which values Contengo at 160 million pounds. The deal will be funded partly by a placing of over 21 million shares and partly from Filtrona's existing debt facilities. Contengo provides print, packaging and support services to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries and the acquisition is in line with Filtrona's strategy of complementing its organic growth with value-added acquisitions. The shares gained 28p to 690.5p.

Oil and gas producer Cairn Energy (CNE) revealed a sharp drop in losses from $1.2 billion (793 million pounds) to $194.2 million (128 million pounds) in 2012 boosted by a steep fall in unsuccessful exploration costs from $941.8 million (623 million pounds) to $158.7 million 105 million pounds). Cairn - currently valued at around 1.75 billion pounds - went on to confirm that it intends to target over 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the next 18 months in regions spanning Greenland to Morocco. Separately, the group announced a new deal in Senegal to acquire working interest in three blocks which cover a total of 7,490km. To date, around 27% of the area is covered by 3D seismic surveys which have uncovered a number of leads and prospects. The shares were down by 10.8p at 278.4p.

Small Caps & AIM

StatPro Group (SOG), provider of portfolio analysis, announced a new partnership with Interactive Data, a global data company. As a result of the partnership Interactive Data's fixed income evaluations will be integrated into StatPro's services, enabling customers to gain access to evaluated prices for approximately 2.8 million securities. StatPro expects the partnership to significantly expand the breadth of its service and therefore provide additional revenue streams. The shares edged up by 0.5p to 85.5p.

Logistics group Pennant International (PEN) posted a 40% increase in revenues to 14.47 million pounds, while pre-tax profits more than doubled to 1.6 million pounds, for 2012. Growth was driven by an uplift in business generated from its training system divisions with revenues up by 61% boosted by contracts secured with the Singapore Defence Science and Technology Agency and BAE systems. The group went on to claim that it is well placed for growth given a good visibility of revenues for 2013, 2014 and beyond. The shares fell by 4p to 66.5p despite the company increasing its final dividend by 40% to 1.4p per share.

Bowling alley operator Essenden (ESS) announced a narrowing of losses from 2.2 million pounds to 71,000 pounds for the 52 weeks ended 30th December 2012 despite a slight dip in revenues to 47.1 million pounds. The drop off in revenues was attributed to site closures in Bury and Stockport but these falls were more than offset by the elimination off the associated overhead costs. The shares gained 2.5p to 34.5p.



Oil and gas exploration group Northern Petroleum* (NOP) announced that its Cygnus prospect offshore Italy has now been mapped as an estimated unrisked prospective resource of up to 790 million barrels of recoverable oil. This estimate is based on the premise that the Cygnus prospect shares a common oil water contact with Aquilla, an adjacent producing oil field. The shares lost 4p to 50.50p.

Tungsten play W Resources (WRES) announced that exploration work at the Tarouca tungsten project in Portugal delivered "exceptional" results. Of the 98 surface samples it took, 31% of the samples had a grade higher than 0.1% tungsten while 8% of the total samples assayed more than 1% tungsten. The project in question produced over 600 tonnes of concentrated ore between 1963 and 1984 and has since been untouched. The shares slipped by 0.03p to 1.12p.

Online payments company Optimal Payments (OPAY) revealed a 60% increase in revenues to $138.9 million (92 million pounds) for 2012 and recorded a pre-tax profit of $3.6 million (2.4 million pounds) after posting a loss of $26.2 million (17.33 million pounds) a year previously. The growth was attributed to pick up in revenues on the NETBANX side of the business, which accounted for over three quarters of 2012 revenues. Geographically, the business now has a material presence in the North American market, as well as strong market positions in Europe and Asia. The shares inched up by 1p to 168p.

* Northern Petroleum is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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