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Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Next, Ted Baker and Ultimate Finance Group



From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 21st March 2013

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The Markets

The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned Cyprus that it has until Monday to agree terms on a bailout package with the EU and the International Monetary Fund. If Cyprus fails to come to an agreement with European policy makers on the issue by then it will not be eligible for the low cost loans which are sustaining the nation's banks at present. The warning comes after Cyprus rejected a proposal from European ministers earlier in the week that would have imposed a 10% levy on savers in the country. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chair of the committee of the 17 Eurozone finance ministers told the European Parliament, "I don't think the ECB is using threats. There has to be at least the prospect in the near future of a programme of recapitalisation, of bringing these banks within a safe haven again."

After some gloomy economic figures released in yesterday's Budget announcement, the Chancellor was given cause for optimism as official figures revealed that the retail sector enjoyed a strong February. The Office for National Statistics confirmed that UK retail sales rose by 2.1% in February over January in a rise fuelled by a hike in sales of computers and tablets as UK consumers spent an average of 6.3 billion pounds per week. However, the figures may be slightly deceptive as January's retail sales were hit by the snowy weather that plagued large areas of the country. Alan Clarke, an analyst at Scotiabank, said: "Retail sales were strong probably because prices were low. And when there are smaller-than-normal price increases in things like clothing, people spend more, so that's understandable."

Manufacturing activity in China has increased in March after a dip in activity either side of the Lunar New Year holidays in February. HSBC's Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 from 50.4 in February in a reading significantly above the 50 mark which separates expansion from contraction. Despite the month-on-month rise, March's manufacturing levels were still shy of January's level in a continuation of an underlying trend which suggests that the economy is growing, but at a much more subdued rate than levels seen before the financial crisis. The data was consistent with Bank Of America Economist Lu Ting who wrote in a note yesterday, "China is still on track for a recovery but the pace is weaker than we previously expected."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 48.54 points at 14,463.19 and the Nasdaq lost 23.44 points to 2,782.47.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 44.15 points to 6,388.55; the FTSE 250 finished 49.86 points down at 13,980.82; the FTSE All-Share was down by 22.73 points to 3370.78; and the FTSE AIM Index fell by 3.14 points to 740.67.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon initiated coverage on UK ceramics manufacturer Portmeiron (PMP) with a target price of 657p. The broker bases this stance on a loyal customer base in the UK and the US, as well as a growing revenue base in South Korea and emerging markets such as India. Furthermore, Panmure has faith in management's capability to complete value adding acquisitions in the medium-term following the encouraging recent acquisitions of Spode and Royal Worcester. The shares climbed by 5p to 542.5p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on market research group Brainjuicer (BJU) with a target price of 298p. The broker is impressed with the group's start to 2103 in which the research firm has demonstrated strong year-on-year growth and, according to Canaccord, built on its increasingly global reputation. In particular, Canaccord is encouraged with the company's growth in Brazil and China and is excited about the group's recent expansion into India and France. The shares remained flat at 238.5p..

Shore Capital re-iterated its "sell" recommendation on rival financial services firm Brewin Dolphin (BRW) after Chief Executive Jamie Matheson stepped down from his position as CEO. The move does not come as a surprise to the broker but it does open up the possibility of the group being subject to a takeover bid. Furthermore, Shore Capital is cautious on the group's transition into completely new IT systems across its office network because of the risk of double running costs that this implementation brings. The shares jumped by 11.4p to 206.5p.

Blue-Chips

Retailer Next (NXT) announced a 3.1% increase in total sales for the 12 months ended 31st January 2013 while pre-tax profits were up by 9% at 621.6 million pounds. The increase was driven by 9.5% growth in its online and catalogue business. Since the start of the year Next has continued to open more stand alone outlets, expanded online and has bought back shares, factors which have helped the equity outperform the benchmark U.K FTSE 100 index. The shares were up by 167p at 4,314p..

United Utilities (UU.) revealed that its underlying operating profit for the year ended 31st January is expected to be slightly higher than last year due to tight management of its cost base. Britain's largest listed water company said it was trading in line with expectations, with analysts' forecasting the group to report pre-tax profits of 348 million pounds when it posts its full year results on 23rd May. The shares increased by 13.5p to 709p.

ITV's (ITV) annual report revealed that Chief Executive Adam Crozier took home 3.7 million pounds in cash and shares in 2012, up nearly a fifth on 2011. The CEO achieved 91.33% of the maximum bonus he could have received as the TV broadcaster delivered a 6% rise in pre-tax profits and a 13% hike in earnings. The recent consensus amongst brokers on the stock has been positive, with Goldman Sachs retaining its "buy" recommendation on the group yesterday, increasing its target price from 131p to 154p. The shares slipped by 0.5p to 129.6p.

Mid Caps

Fashion retailer Ted Baker (TED) reported a 18% increase in revenues to 254.5 million pounds for e 52 weeks to 26th January, while pre-tax profits grew by 16.5% to 31.5 million pounds. The increase in profitability was driven by a reduction in promotional activity which helped to boost gross margins from 61.3% to 62.4%. As a result of the improvement Ted Baker is upping its final dividend from 16.25p to 18.7p, bringing the total dividend paid for the year up to 26.6p per share, an increase from 23.4p. The shares were down by 34p at 1,320p.

Electronics distributor Premier Farnell (PFL) posted a 2.8% fall in revenues to 952 million pounds for the 53 weeks ended 3rd February, while operating profits were down by 2.8%. The company - which sells products such as cameras and batteries - attributed the decline in profitability to a fall in generated revenue from its US distribution business (MDD). Despite these sluggish results broker Espirito Santo Execution reiterates its "buy" recommendation on the group with a target price of 225p. The shares jumped by 6p to 224.7p.

Soft drinks group A.G BARR (BAG) announced a 6.6% increase in turnover to 237.6 million pounds for the 12 months ended 26th January while pre-tax profits were up by 4.3% to 35 million pounds. The Irn-Bru maker said its stringent cost control and pricing actions helped to offset squeezed margins which were pressurised by higher costs. In its outlook, A.G BARR remains adamant that it has the capability to deal with the challenging economic conditions regardless of whether the group's proposed merger with Britivic receives approval from the competition commission. The shares swelled by 19p to 539.5p.

Small Caps & AIM

Energy group Turbo Power Systems (TPS) announced that it has received $2.4 million (1.6 million pounds) in the form of a follow up order for the supply of electrical machines and unit drives from McQuay International, a building services group. The order follows on from the original $5.4 million (3.56 million pounds) award which was secured back in May 2011. It has been a successful month for the group as this supply agreement follows on from a $3.2 million (2.1 million pounds) rail order. The shares soared by 0.13p to 0.61p.

COMS (COMS) a provider of hosted VoIP business phone systems, announced that it has signed a 24 month contract with Worldstone, a communications company, to commit to add an additional 400 hosted seats per month selling across the international reseller base of Worldstone. By the end of the term, according to the group, the additional seats are expected to effectively double the size of the existing Coms' core business. The shares inched up by 0.005p to 0.83p.

Ultimate Finance Group (UFG), the financial services group, announced a 70% increase in pre-tax profits to 560,000 for the six months ended 31st December 2012 on a revenue increase from 5.4 million pounds to 5.9 million pounds. The group attributed this success to good performances within its new divisions which offer financial services tailored specifically to small business in many different industries such as the construction, haulage and recruitment sectors. The shares were up by 1.875p to 23.25p.

Stockbroker and investment bank Panmure Gordon (PMR) posted a pre-tax profit of 0.6 million pounds for 2012 in a swing from a loss of 6.3 million pounds in 2011. The broker cited a reduction in overhead costs (even after increased bonus payments to staff), lower operating costs and increased market sentiment as reasons for this improvement in performance. The group also boasted a 26% increase in client numbers to 96 over the year further helping it in its return to profitability. The shares increased by 0.375p to 21.25p.

Smart technology group UbiSense (UBI) announced that it has won a significant new contract with a US cable operations company for the supply of its "myWorld" product. The product assists network operations teams to make more informed decisions by providing fast and easy access to network asset and customer data. Sales of this product doubled during 2012 across a customer base ranging from electricity utilities in Europe to cable operators in North America. The shares grew by 4.5p to 203p.

Lenders Manx Financial Group* (MFX) reported that banking subsidiary Conister grew its loan book to 63 million pounds for the year ended December 2012, up 19% on the previous year. Manx said that the fact that it has access to the Isle of Man's multi-billion pound deposit market coupled with reduced lending to SME's from the main clearing banks has provided it with an opportunity to offer loans on very competitive terms and therefore attract more business. The shares flew by 0.75p to 5p.

*Manx Chairman, Jim Mellon, and CEO, Denham Eke, are also Non-Executive Directors of Rivington Street Holdings, the owner of UK-Analyst.

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