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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring ITV, Talk Talk and Adept Telecom


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 13th November
2012


The Markets

The CPI measure of inflation grew from 2.2% to 2.7% in October amid increases in tuition fees and food prices, according to the Office for National Statistics. Eduflation was the main cause of the rise, with the costs of education up by 19.1% last month after the government increased the cap on university tuition fees. A rise in restaurant & hotel and transport costs also fuelled the increase.

Over in Greece, the government sold 3.24 billion pounds worth of treasury bills in its latest financing round. The money raised will help to cover 4 billion pounds of previously issued treasury bills which are due to be paid on Friday. Greece has been forced to resort to this method of raising finance as it has not yet received the next installment of its bailout loans from the EU.

Meanwhile, a report by the International Energy Agency suggests that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the leading oil producer by 2017 to become a net oil exporter. Prospective new oil production, combined with new American policies to improve energy efficiency, should mean that the country will become "all but self sufficient" in meeting its energy needs in two decades time.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 67.28 points at 12,882.36 and the Nasdaq rose by 1.21 points to 2,583.98.

In London the FTSE 100 increased by 18.98 points to 5,786.25; the FTSE 250 finished 6.08 points down at 11,797.22; the FTSE All-Share gained 7.86 points to 3,020.45; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped 2.49 points to 689.68.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its "buy" recommendation on Majestic Wine (MJW) with an unchanged target price of 505p. The broker envisages positive times ahead as spend on advertising in the second half of the year will be cut, removing a substantial squeeze on profits. Secondly, the broker believes that the 6-8 new shops the wine company opened in the first half of the year positions it well to exploit the Christmas market, a time that traditionally yields 60% of all profits. Shares in the company slipped by 0.75p to 475p.

Panmure Gordon has re-issued a "sell" recommendation on Cineworld (CINE) with a target price of 220p. The broker feels that the cinema operator had a particularly weak period for the 19 weeks ended 8th November 2012 as admissions fell 4.1% on last year's corresponding period. Although the broker noted the firm has had a promising start to the fourth quarter, with a strong performance from Bond film "Skyfall", it is nervous that there is not enough time for admissions to play catch up on the relative underperformance over the last quarter. The shares gained 10.25p to 249p.

N+1 Singer maintained its "buy" recommendation on Trifast (TRI), the manufacturer of mechanical fastenings, with a target price of 60p, up from 58p. The broker recognises that the firm has had a good first half, with sales growing by 11% to 62.1 million pounds, boosted by last year's acquisition of Power Steel. Coupled with the leverage of Power Steel's low cost, high margin manufacturing operation the broker believes that the share price could and should increase. The shares were up by 1.875p at 44p.

Blue-Chips

ITV (ITV) announced 4% growth in external revenues to 1.6 billion pounds for the nine months ended 30th September 2012, driven by strong momentum in net advertising revenues. However, in the third quarter alone advertising revenues were down 10% as the well watched Olympic Games were aired by rival BBC. Leisure industry guru Mark Brumby commented. "With I’m a Celebrity now keeping punters out of the UK's pubs (and the X Factor, Strictly and the rest doing the same), it’' interesting to see ITV, so often the company dishing out this treatment, bemoaning the fact that it took a hit..." The shares shot up by 7.8p to 94.6p.

Vodafone (VOD) posted a 1.4% fall in group service revenues, reflecting ongoing income and not one-off items such as handsets, for the second quarter. This was driven by an 11.3% dip in revenues from Southern Europe. The telecoms giant also reported free cash flow of 2.2 billion pounds for the period, a figure which was short of analysts' forecasts of 2.5 billion pounds. The shares slipped by 4.1p to 162.5p.

Building materials giant CRH (CRH) scaled back its forecasts for this year on the back of a slowdown in demand in Europe, coupled with disruption to operations in Eastern America due to Hurricane Sandy. The third quarter saw much lower growth in its Americas operations than initially expected and there was a higher rate of decline of operations in Europe which resulted in a 3% dip in like-for-like sales. The shares climbed 5p to 1,140p.

Mid Caps

Workspace Group (WKP), the provider of space to new and growing companies, announced a 46% increase in pre-tax profits to 24.6 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September 2012. Profits were boosted by an 8.6% increase in demand for space as well as rental prices per square foot increasing by 1.7% to 12.99 pounds. The shares decreased by 2.3p to 304.5p despite the company increasing its Interim dividend by 10% to 3.22p per share.

Talk Talk (TALK) posted a 2% dip in group revenues to 828 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September 2012, despite a 1.3% increase in corporate revenues. These figures come after the telecoms operator reported a 4,000 net loss in customers in the three months prior to 30th September 2012. However, gross profits were up by 4% at 453 million pounds, driven by an improved customer mix as off-net and broadband only customers were replaced by higher value on-net broadband customers. The shares surged by 34.4p to 221p.

Afren (AFR), the Africa focussed oil and gas company, reported a 245% rise in revenues to 1.08 billion dollars (0.68 billion pounds) for the nine months ended 30th September 2012. This record level of income was primarily driven by increased production from the Ebok and Okoro fields off the coast of Nigeria. Net working interest production has been 42,033 barrels of oil per day, which is in line with expectations, leaving the group well on track to meet its 2012 production guidance. The shares fell by 2.5p to 137.1p. Broker N+1 Singer has a 160p target price.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Real Good Food (RGD) announced a 17% fall in profits to 1.17 million pounds, despite a 7.5 % increase in sales to 137.8 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September 2012. Profits were dented by an increase in the cost of commodities, including sugar, and its Hayden bakery business exhibiting slow signs of growth. Broker Shore Capital commented "...(the shares trade) on a forward PER of 6.2x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.4x, which we see as an undemanding valuation given the group's strong growth prospects." The shares lost 1.5p to 45p.

Adept Telecom (ADT), the provider of telecommunications services, posted a 32% increase in pre-tax profits to 0.86 million pounds for the six months to September. This was driven by a reduction in interest costs and improved margins. Fixed line product margins improved by 2.9% to 35.7%, achieved through management of supply contracts combined with the impact of regulatory price changes on mobile interconnect rates. Notably, the firm has reduced borrowings by 2.08 million over the past 12 months, ending the period with net debt of 4.39 million pounds. Adept also increased the dividend by 50% to 0.75p per share. The shares rose by 0.5p to 53.5p.

Crimson Tide (TIDE) has won a contract with the Hampshire Autistic Society to develop a smartphone application to help people with autism, for an undisclosed fee. The application is being developed to help people with autism communicate and interact positively with those around them, including strategies to help a person remain calm if they experience anxiety. Shares in mobile technology company gained 0.025p to 1.3p.

Africa based uranium company Forte Energy (FTE) reported that a Reverse Circulation drilling program on its A238 block in Maruritina will start on 14th November, including 54 holes totalling over 8,400 metres in depth. The aim of the campaign is to test highly prospective areas along strike in the Zendes shear zone to the northwest and southeast of the A328 prospect, as it aims to double resources at the prospect. The shares finished up by 0.09p at 1.07p.

De La Rue (DLAR), the money printer, issued a profits warning due to delays to several key currency contracts. The firm said that it will now be too late for those orders to benefit the current financial year. The 199 year old company warned that "a number of significant orders" had been postponed until next year and as a result downgraded its estimated revenue to 528 million pounds from 550 million pounds. However, some analysts have forecast a more significant drop to nearer 490 million pounds. In reaction, the shares dropped by 58p to 1,006p.

Oxford Instruments (OXIG), the provider of high technology tools, posted a 7.4% increase in revenues to 170.8 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September, driven by introductions and demand for nanotech tools. Despite some "softness in the industrial sector" pre-tax profits climbed by 23.5% to 23.1 million pounds for the period. Net cash of 37.1 million pounds was up from 11.9 million pounds at the same time last year. The shares were up by 21p at 1,279p.


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