Sunday 25 November 2012
THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS
Cash in the Attic of Dividend Manor
By Malcolm Stacy
Hello Share Shovellers,
I said recently that dividend pay-outs were at a record in the UK. I still can't get over this pleasant shock to the system. All this talk of doom and gloom and the big British companies are able to make bigger pay-outs than ever. Astonishing. And very encouraging, don't you think. Tasty dividends usually mean healthy cash piles.
I've also said that these generous dividends are distorting the market a bit. The big and small traders are buying into the giants for the dividends they provide. This is because bank interest is so miserable these days.
So less dough is being invested in the small companies which do not pay dividends. This is why your penny shares may be disappointing at the mo. Still penny shares, when they do rise, go far further and faster than Footsie companies (as a rule). So I will not divest myself of my tiddlers, yet.
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The Week Ahead
Severn Trent, United Utilities, Kingfisher
Next week will see traders return to their desks in full-force following the long Thanksgiving Day holiday in the United States. Foremost on their minds will be two things, the most recent survey data for US retailers out over this past weekend and Monday evening's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, the so-called Eurogroup. The former will help them gauge the health of the US consumer heading into the critical Holiday shopping season, while the latter may see a deal on Greece finally achieved. Certainly, that is the hope. In the UK, ONS will release its preliminary estimate of first quarter gross domestic product growth (Consensus: 1.0% quarter-on-quarter).
Meantime and on the corporate front, Utilities will be the flavour of the week, with first half results due out from Severn Trent (on Tuesday) and United Utilities (on Wednesday).
Analyst Tina Cook at Charles Stanley is forecasting a 4% increase in revenues, to £920m, for the former; driven by the regulated water business. Challenging market conditions at SVT Services (risk of further deterioration) and higher costs at SVT Water are expected to result in slightly lower profits before interest and tax (PBIT) of £267m (-3%). Profit before tax (PBT) is seen coming in broadly flat at £157m. Dividends per share (DPS) are seen growing at an 8% pace to 30.3p, in line with the current policy of 3% real growth per annum to 2015.
The next day will see United Utilities weigh in with its own half yearly figures. Revenue is expected to be around +5% higher at £835m as a result of allowed regulatory price rises offset by customer switching and lower commercial volumes. Here too profits before tax (PBT) are seen coming in broadly flat at £188m (+2%). DPS growth of +7% to 11.4p is expected.
Thursday will see Kingfisher release its third quarter interims, from which investors will try to glean information on the state of the UK economy. Ironically, the company's results may be more indicative of the state of affairs in the Eurozone, given its exposure to France.
Thus, analysts at UBS expect the company's third quarter profits before taxes to have reached £265m, down by approximately 3% on last year. The consensus estimate is for £255m. Group like-for-like sales (LFL) is expected to be -2%. UK profit is expected to be ahead by 10%, but France down 8% (all from currency) and International sales off by more-or-less 5%. Poland zloty profit is expected to be down modestly but with the last of the big currency hits.
Be that as it may, the broker does add that: "macro weakness in France suggests the near-term forecast risk remains on the downside. However, from here, gross margin gains should accelerate, especially if plans to reinvest close to 50% of supply-chain gains into the offer are reined back as a result of weaker market conditions and a general pull-back in competitive activity."
Also to watch out for in the Utilities sector, the long awaited Energy Bill is expected to be published next week, with a further announcement on 'gas strategy' in the Autumn Statement by George Osborne. While the main market impact is expected to be on stocks with electricity generating capacity (or plans to build it), analysts at Seymour Pierce think it will have little impact on shares -despite speculation in the press to the contrary. Amongst the potentially affected stocks are: Centrica, Drax Group, National Grid and SSE.
Monday November 26
INTERIMS
GB Group, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings, Quintain Estates & Development
Q3
Espirito Santo Financial Group SA
GMS
UBM
FINALS
Aberdeen Asset Management, Infrastrata
AGMS
Aisi Realty Public Ltd. (DI), Origin Enterprises, West Pioneer Properties Ltd. (DI)
Tuesday November 27
INTERIMS
Caledonia Investments, De La Rue, Findel, KCOM Group, Naspers Ltd. ADR, Plastics Capital, Scapa Group, Severn Trent
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
APR Energy, Toyota Motor Corp.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
Q3
Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
Britvic, Gooch & Housego, Greencore Group, Renew Holdings, Sanderson Group, Topps Tiles
ANNUAL REPORT
Mining Investments Resources
EGMS
Blackstar Group SE (DI)
AGMS
Clean Energy Brazil, Inland Homes, JPMorgan Smaller Companies Inv Trust, St Ives, Thor Mining
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Close Brothers Group, Third Point Offshore Investors Ltd. EUR Shares, Third Point Offshore Investors Ltd. GBP Shares, Third Point Offshore Investors Ltd. USD Shares
Wednesday November 28
INTERIMS
Advanced Computer Software Group, Assura Group Ltd., Creston, Daisy Group, Telford Homes, United Utilities Group, VP
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Konami Corp., Restore
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Amec, Anglo Pacific Group, Castings, Clean Energy Brazil, E2V Technologies, Hansa Trust, Hansa Trust 'A' Non Voting Shares, Helical Bar, Intermediate Capital Group, JD Sports Fashion, Johnson Matthey, Mckay Securities, MS International, National Grid, Sepura, Tate & Lyle, Telecom Plus, Young & Co's Brewery 'A' Shares, Young & Co's Brewery (Non-Voting)
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Canaccord Financial Inc., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di), Molex Inc., Molex Inc. 'A' Shares, Premier Energy & Water Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (GER) (07:00)
Beige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Q3
OJSC Cherkizovo Group GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
GW Pharmaceuticals, Hangar 8
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Lancashire Holdings
EGMS
East Balkan Properties
AGMS
Jupiter Primadona Growth Trust, Kea Petroleum, Neos Resources, Plexus Holdings, Seeing Machines Ltd., Wildhorse Energy Ltd. (DI)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AIREA, Allocate Software, Impax Asian Environmental Markets, JPMorgan Global Markets Emerging Income Trust, Kier Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
A&J Mucklow Group, Daily Mail and General Trust 'Ord' Shares, Daily Mail and General Trust A (Non.V), Diploma, Dunelm Group, Games Workshop Group, GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd, JPMorgan Japanese Inv Trust, Northern Venture Trust, Smart (J) & Co., St Ives, Standard Life Equity Income Trust, Utilitywise
Thursday November 29
INTERIMS
API Group, Dixons Retail , Hogg Robinson Group, Mountview Estate, PayPoint, Pennon Group, Phoenix IT Group, WYG
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Moss Bros Group, Prime People
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Schlumberger Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
GMS
Media Corporation
FINALS
Marston's, Shaftesbury
AGMS
Avia Health Informatics, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, Berkeley Resources Ltd. (DI), BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Harbourvest Senior Loans Europe Ltd., Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI), Red Rock Resources, Victoria Oil & Gas, Wolseley
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Impax Asset Management Group, Kingfisher
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (estimate) (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (estimate) (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
Trends in Lending (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Wetherspoon (J.D.)
Friday November 30
INTERIMS
Acal, Creightons
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BAE Systems, Bloomsbury Publishing, Booker Group, Charles Taylor, DCC, Development Securities, Downing Planned Exit VCT 2 'C' Shares, Downing Planned Exit VCT 2 'D' Shares , Downing Planned Exit VCT 2 'F' Shares, Downing Planned Exit VCT 2011 (General Shares), Downing Planned Exit VCT 2011 (Low Carbon Shares), Downing Planned Exit VCT 2011 (Structured Shares), Downing Planned Exit VCT 3 'C' Shares, Downing Planned Exit VCT 3 'D' Shares , Downing Planned Exit VCT 3 F Shares, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Hilton Food Group, Howden Joinery Group, ITV, Laird, Lookers, Octopus AIM VCT, Old Mutual, Panther Securities, Provident Financial, Senior
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., Henderson International Income Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Q3
Frontline Ltd.
GMS
Prime Focus London
FINALS
Cambria Africa
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IndigoVision Group, Ryanair Holdings
EGMS
Alpha Real Trust Ltd.
AGMS
Aquarius Platinum Ltd., Charteris, Ferrum Crescent Ltd NPV (DI), Forte Energy NL, Pan African Resources, Prime Focus London, Utilitywise
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
SThree
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IndigoVision Group, JPMorgan Overseas Inv Trust, London Finance & Investment Group, Manchester & London Inv Trust, Swallowfield, Wolseley
ALTERNATIVE BET OF THE WEEK Your local betting shop may be great for the footie, but you must go online for the truly weird bets.
This week from Paddy Power: Who will win the Croydon North By-Election?
Singles Only applies to Croydon North By-Election. Voting taking place on November 29th 2012.
| Labour | 1/40 |
| Respect | 12/1 |
| Conservatives | 30/1 |
| UKIP | 50/1 |
| Green | 100/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 100/1 |
| Christian Peoples and Alliance | 200/1 |
| Communist Party | 200/1 |
| National Front | 250/1 |
| 9/11 was an inside job | 250/1 |
| Official Monster Raving Looney Party | 500/1 |
| Young People's Party | 500/1 |
Regards,
ShareCrazy
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