Kumaresan Selvaraj pillai


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Friday, November 30, 2012

FinNews for November 30, 2012

FinNews for November 30, 2012

Top Stories

The "fiscal cliff" remained in the headlines this week, with sound bites from press conferences a frequent feature. While some participants were optimistic a deal could be made, as the week closes much of that optimism has been diminished. (1) Hostess received the green light to start liquidating their assets this week, which has sparked frenzy of interest from 110 potential buyers. CNBC reports that combined the multitude of Hostess brands worth could exceed $1 billion dollars. (2) Ahead of next month's official retail sales data, this year's holiday season market results are already expected to come in under previous predictions. Due to superstorm Sandy's devastating effects on the most populated part of the country, early November sales were likely down. Both Target and Macy's Inc. reported sales which failed to meet earlier analyst expectations. (3) German lawmakers approved the latest Greek bailout deal. (4)

Economic Releases & Statistics

Gross domestic product growth expanded at a 2.7 annual percentage rate, which is faster than initially predicted 2 percent for the third quarter. (5) Anticipated home sales rose to 13.2 percent, making pending homes sales surge to a number that hasn't been seen since March of 2007. (6) This recent jump doesn't, however, cover all areas. Sandy effect on the Northeast brought about 0.1 percent decrease in sales. (6) October durable goods orders, as reported by the Commerce Department, were virtually unchanged from September. This beat the forecast by Dow Jones surveyed economists who predicted a 1.2 percent decline. (7)


Stocks & Earnings

The biggest U.S. supermarket operator, Kroger Co, has reported an elevated quarterly profit, thus encouraging them to raise its full-year outlook for earnings per share. Total sales beat analysts' expectations coming in at $21.81 billion versus an average guess of $21.65 billion. (8) After reporting poor store sales and weaker than anticipated earnings, Tiffany & Co. lowered its full-year outlook on Thursday for the third straight quarter. (9) The luxury jewelry maker's shares fell more than 7.5% to $58.86 causing them to adjust their 2012 fiscal earnings from a range of $3.55 to $3.70 a share to a $3.20 to $3.40 range. The CEO remained upbeat about upcoming holiday sales. (9) Key clothing retailer earnings were rounded up this week. Thursday morning trading showed Aeropostale and Rue21 falling 7% and 5%, respectively. (10) Guess, which "has been struggling in recent years as operating margins have come under pressure," showed a 2.8 percent increase in Thursday morning trading. (10)


Global Currencies

As the fiscal cliff battle continues the U.S. dollar declined against the Euro. (10) In comparison, "the euro gained against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers." (11) Thursday, Asia's opposition party leader Shinzo Abe called for an unlimited monetary easing until a 2 percent inflation target is attained, causing the Japanese yen to fall in opposition to other major currencies in early Asian deals. (12)


Oil & Energies

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported that crude supplies decreased last week by 0.1 percent, or 300,000 barrels, to 374.1 million barrels. This is an 11.8 percent increase above levels a year ago. For the week ended Nov. 23, analysts had expected an increase of 500,000 barrels. Although gasoline supplies are 2.7 percent below levels year-ago, there has been a 1.9 percent, or 3.9 million barrel, increase to 204.3 million barrels. Analysts forecast gasoline supplies increasing by 1 million barrels. (13)


Grains & Field Crops

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, "China's grain output rose 3.2 percent year on year to hit 589.57 million tonnes in 2012, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth." As such, corn has superseded wheat as China's largest grain. This growth is attributed to not only favorable weather conditions in the country's farming region but the government's increased subsidy program in agricultural production. China also "raised the minimum purchase prices for wheat and rice to stimulate grain production." (14)

U.S. grains showed sharply higher this week, with "wheat posting its biggest daily gain since September," as a result of strong investments towards the end of the month. However, due to poor weather conditions causing drought conditions, there are fears of a "weather-reduced harvests around the world;" thus leading to "record-low wheat condition ratings." (15)

Despite soybeans gaining "1.7 percent, or 24-1/2 cents, to $14.49-1/4 a bushel," South Brazil has also been affected by dry weather conditions.  "The soybean market has been lifted this week by concerns over [the] dry growing conditions." This has brought about doubts as to whether "upcoming South American crops can replenish tight global stocks." (15)


Precious Metals

Brazil increased its gold reserves in October, bringing them to "the highest level in more than 11 years." (16) Gold coin sales in the US are set for a strong November with early performance suggesting it will be the best quarter since the end of 2008. So far, this month's sales of American Eagles have reached 131,000 ounces. (17)

 
Other Commodities

Forecasts for "bountiful harvests" in Central America and Brazil added pressure to coffee prices. Overall coffee futures prices have dropped more than 30 percent this year. (18) Earlier in the week, reports suggested farmers in Vietnam were slowing their sales of beans anticipating a drop in production from record highs. (19) Last week, coffee prices suffered as old coffee was "dumped" as new rules came into effect regarding age and quality for deliverable beans against ICE Futures contracts. (20) In Ghana, a delay in rain has led to concerns about cocoa crop development. The current rainfall pattern is bad, but some farmers are holding out hope that precipitation will come in December. (21) The European Union is looking to "increase the bloc's sugar supplies in the face of dwindling stocks and a growing gap between domestic and global prices." A commission is hoping to increase supplies by more than a million metric tons. (22) Rains in Brazil may cause issues with the current sugar harvest, prompting some analyst to suggest growers may have to leave some cane in the fields. (23)

The Cattle of Feed report for November showed the fewest number of placements in October since the data series began in 1996. Cold storage showed 424 million pounds of beef, down 1 million pounds month on month, but up 7 million pounds year on year. (24)

Upcoming:
Date Currency Event GMT Forecast Previous
2-Dec Sun AUD AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index 21:30   45.20
NZD NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) 21:45 -2.60%
AUD AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) 23:30 0.10%
AUD AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) 23:30 2.40%
JPY JPY Capital Spending 23:50 7.70%
JPY JPY Capital Spending excl Software 23:50 6.60%
JPY JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) 23:50 0.30%
AUD AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) -1456M
AUD AUD Inventories 0.60%
GBP GBP Lloyds Business Barometer 00:01 17.00
GBP GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) 00:01 -0.10%
GBP GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) 00:01 -0.40%
JPY JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Nishimura Speaks at Panel 00:10
AUD AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) 00:30 0.50%
AUD AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 00:30 -4.60%
CNY CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 01:00 55.50
CNY CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 01:45 49.50
JPY JPY BOJ Shirakawa, ECB Noyer Speak at Luncheon at Europlace Forum 04:00
3-Dec Mon JPY JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) 05:00   -9.00%
AUD AUD RBA Commodity Price Index Au 05:30 87.30
AUD AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) 05:30 -16.00%
CHF CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) 08:15 5.40%
CHF CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index 08:30 46.10
EUR EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 08:45 45.50
EUR EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 08:50
EUR EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 08:55
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 09:00
GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 09:30 47.50
USD USD Markit US PMI Final 13:58
USD USD ISM Manufacturing 15:00 51.70
USD USD ISM Prices Paid 15:00 55.00
USD USD Construction Spending (MoM) 15:00 0.60%
USD USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on the Economy in Little Rock AR 18:40
USD USD Total Vehicle Sales 22:00 14.22M
USD USD Domestic Vehicle Sales 22:00 11.10M
JPY JPY Monetary Base (YoY) 23:50
JPY JPY Official Reserve Assets $1274.2B
GBP GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) -0.70%
GBP GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) -1.70%
NZD NZD ANZ Commodity Price 00:00 1.30%
AUD AUD Building Approvals (MoM) 00:30 7.80%
AUD AUD Building Approvals (YoY) 00:30 12.40%
AUD AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) 00:30 -11801M
AUD AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP 00:30 0.30
JPY JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) 01:30 0.00%
AUD AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 03:30 3.25% 3.25%
4-Dec Tue GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction 09:30   50.90
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) 10:00 0.20%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 10:00 2.70%
CAD CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision 14:00 1.00%
NZD NZD Value of All Buildings SA 21:45 0.80%
AUD AUD AiG Performance of Service Index 22:30 42.80
GBP GBP BRC Shop Price Index YoY 00:01 1.50%
AUD AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 00:30 3.70%
AUD AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 00:30 0.60%
JPY JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Nishimura Speaks to Business Leaders 01:30
CNY CNY HSBC Services PMI 01:45 53.50
5-Dec Wed EUR EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services 08:45   46.00
EUR EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services 08:50
EUR EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services 08:55
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite 09:00
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services 09:00
GBP GBP Official Reserves (Changes) 09:30 -$512M
GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services 09:30 50.60
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 10:00 -0.80%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) 10:00 -0.20%
USD USD MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00
USD USD ADP Employment Change 13:15 158K
USD USD Non-Farm Productivity 13:30 1.90%
USD USD Unit Labor Costs 13:30 -0.10%
USD USD Factory Orders 15:00 4.80%
USD USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite 15:00 54.20
NZD NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 20:00 2.50% 2.50%
GBP GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) 12.10%
AUD AUD Employment Change 00:30 10.7K
AUD AUD Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.40%
AUD AUD Full Time Employment Change 00:30 18.7K
AUD AUD Part Time Employment Change 00:30 -8.0K
AUD AUD Participation Rate 00:30 65.10%
6-Dec Thu CHF CHF Unemployment Rate 06:45   2.90%
CHF CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. 06:45 3.00%
CHF CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) 08:15 0.10%
CHF CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) 08:15 -0.20%
CHF CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) 08:15 0.10%
CHF CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) 08:15 -0.10%
GBP GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 09:30 -£8368
GBP GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) 09:30 -£3972
GBP GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) 09:30 -£2699
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) 10:00 -0.20%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) 10:00 -0.80%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) 10:00 0.10%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 10:00 -0.10%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 10:00 -0.60%
EUR EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) 11:00 -3.30%
EUR EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) 11:00 -4.70%
GBP GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 12:00 0.50% 0.50%
GBP GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 375B
USD USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 12:30 11.60%
EUR EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 12:45 0.80%
EUR EUR ECB Announces Interest Rates 12:45 0.00%
EUR EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate 13:00 48.90
CAD CAD Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -13.20%
USD USD Initial Jobless Claims 13:30
USD USD Continuing Claims 13:30
CAD CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA 15:00 58.30
USD USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 15:30
CAD CAD Bank of Canada Releases Financial System Review 15:30
USD USD Household Change in Net Worth 17:00 -$322B
AUD AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index 22:30 35.80
NZD NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index 00:00 114.10
NZD NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM 00:00 3.30%
GBP GBP CBI Trends Total Orders
GBP GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices
GBP GBP CBI Reported Sales
EUR EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) -0.60%
EUR EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) 4.60%
7-Dec Fri JPY JPY Leading Index 05:00   91.60
JPY JPY Coincident Index 05:00 91.50
AUD AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) 05:30 A$49.4B
EUR EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) 07:00 2.50%
EUR EUR GermanLabor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) 07:00 1.50%
CHF CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 08:00 424.4B
GBP GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 09:30 -1.70%
GBP GBP Industrial Production (YoY) 09:30 -2.60%
GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 09:30 0.10%
GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) 09:30 -1.00%
GBP GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths 09:30 3.20%
EUR EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) 11:00 -1.80%
EUR EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) 11:00 -1.20%
CAD CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) 13:30
USD USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 13:30 171K
CAD CAD Unemployment Rate 13:30 7.40%
USD USD Change in Private Payrolls 13:30 184K
CAD CAD Net Change in Employment 13:30 1.8K
USD USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 13:30 13K
CAD CAD Full Time Employment Change 13:30 7.30
USD USD Unemployment Rate 13:30 7.90%
CAD CAD Part Time Employment Change 13:30 -5.50
USD USD Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp 13:30 0.00%
CAD CAD Participation Rate 13:30 66.80
USD USD Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp 13:30 1.60%
USD USD Avg Weekly Hours All Employees 13:30 34.40
USD USD Change in Household Employment 13:30 410.00
USD USD Underemployment Rate (U6) 13:30 14.60%
USD USD U. of Michigan Confidence 14:55
GBP GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 15:00 0.50%
USD USD Consumer Credit 20:00 $11.365B

1. http://www.cnbc.com/id/50007173
2. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000132407&play=1
3. http://us.mobile.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSL1E8MT1WW20121129?feedType=RSS&feedName=economicNews
4. http://www.cnbc.com/id/50018864
5. http://www.cnbc.com/id/50007681
6. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49998877
7. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323830404578144873345826296.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
8. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/29/kroger-results-idUSL1E8MS78720121129
9. http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/11/29/tiffany-lowers-full-year-outlook-again/
10. http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=a4c8042a-84df-4ae8-887f-53fb1e1039aa
11. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-29/dollar-pares-losses-against-euro-after-boehner-damps-optimism.html
12. http://www.rttnews.com/2013948/yen-falls-as-ldp-leader-abe-calls-unlimited-easing-until-inflation-at-2.aspx?type=cm&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=sitemap
13. http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/140544?type=ap
14. http://www.globaltimes.cn/DesktopModules/DnnForge%20-%20NewsArticles/Print.aspx?tabid=99&tabmoduleid=94&articleId=747523&moduleId=405&PortalID=0
15. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/markets-grains-idUSL4N0971TQ20121127
16. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-21/brazil-boosts-gold-reserves-to-the-highest-in-more-than-11-years
17. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/usa-mint-coins-idUSL1E8MU7F620121130
18. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/coffee-plunges-on-expectations-of-bountiful-...
19. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/markets-vietnam-coffee-idUSL4N09719A20121127
20. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/arabica-ice-rule-change-idUSL1E8ML1MB20121121
21. http://www.citifmonline.com/index.php?id=1.1157824
22. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/08/eu-sugar-idUSL5E8M8JEZ20121108
23. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-22/sugar-rises-as-rainfall-may-cut-brazilian-supplies-cocoa-drops
24. http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Cattle-Outlook-Lowest-October-cattle-placements-on-record-181583301.html
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