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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Greek Tragedy - When the Hades is the final act asks Tom Winnifrith in the ShareCrazy Morning Market View

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Tuesday 19 June 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY

Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre
- Warren Buffett


THIS MORNING IN LONDON

FTSE 100

5,536.17

45.08   0.82%

FTSE 250

10,791.51

70.07   0.65%

FTSE 350

2,934.59

23.27   0.80%



FTSE All Share

2,870.24

22.40   0.79%

AIM 100

3,043.21

10.78   0.36%

AIM All Share

676.62

2.10   0.31%


11:37 am

Stimulus hopes drive gains

- G20 to take 'all necessary policy measures'
- UK, US stimulus hopes boost markets
- Whitbread, Home Retail rise strongly

UK stocks were trading near their highest levels of the day by lunchtime on hopes that the world's leaders can pull together to battle the global financial crisis.

According to a leaked draft communique, Eurozone leaders of the Group of 20 said that they "will take all necessary policy measures to safeguard the integrity and stability of the area, improve financial markets and break the feedback loop between sovereigns and banks."

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde revealed yesterday that its resources were getting an additional boost of $26bn to take its anti-crisis firewall to a total of $456bn. "Countries large and small have rallied to our call for action, and more may join. I salute them and their commitment to multilateralism," Lagarde said in a statement.

UK inflation fell unexpectedly in May to back within the government's target level, raising expectations that the Bank of England would soon ramp up its quantitative easing programme. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 2.8% in May, from 3% in April, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. Analysts had expected it to remain steady but lower fuel prices, as well as food and drink, helped push it down.

Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee comes together today for a two-day meeting; markets are hoping that members will vote on further easing measures in light of recent economic data and Eurozone concerns.

Greek leaders that will form part of the new coalition government are to put together a team to renegotiate the conditions of the EU bailout programme. The announcement came shortly after the Greek press confirmed that the meeting between New Democracy's Antonis Samaras and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis has ended. Kouvelis has said that his party will also support the coalition government.

In other news, Germany's economic sentiment indicator fell to -16.9 points in June from the previous month's 10.8, according to the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). It is the second consecutive decline for this leading indicator and the largest one-month drop since October 1998.

FTSE 100: Whitbread and Weir provide a lift

Forecast-beating like-for-like (LFL) sales growth in its first quarter saw shares of Whitbread jump this morning. The Premier Inn and Costa Coffee owner reported that LFL sales increased by 4.5%, better than expectations of a 3% improvement.

Engineering group Weir was also making impressive gains after reiterating its full-year forecast at its capital markets presentation today. Jefferies has said that this implies the reconfirmation of the pre-tax profit guidance of GBP470m "which would in theory be equivalent to a 4% upgrade versus Bloomberg consensus forecasts".

Property firm Hammerson rose after announcing that it is set to off-load most of its London office space as it pushes forward with plans to focus solely on retail space. The company has exchanged contracts on the majority of its office portfolio with Brookfield Office Properties for GBP518m.

Consumer products and food groups were firmly out of favour today after France's Danone slashed its 2012 guidance on the back of the tough trading environment in Europe in the second quarter. Household cleaning and cosmetic firms Unilever and Reckitt Benckiser were unwanted, along with sweeteners giant Tate & Lyle and bread manufacturer AB Foods.

FTSE 250: Home Retail rockets on Argos performance

Shares in Home Retail Group leapt after Argos sales held up in the first quarter, delighting investors who expected them to be hit by bad weather. The stock jumped nearly 24% after Argos revenues came in at GBP819m for the quarter, down 0.2% on a like-for-like basis. The City consensus was for a 4% fall in like-for-like sales in the three months to the start of June after the wettest April in 100 years.

Fellow retailer Dixons was on the up after Bank of America upgraded the stock to 'neutral'.

Engineering and construction group Kentz rose strongly after it said it was on track to hit its revised targets as its backlog of work continued to grow.At the end of May 2012 that backlog had grown to $2.5bn, up from $2.46bn in April.

Military counter-measures specialist Chemring was a heavy faller after saying that global defence markets continue to be uncertain, with budget cuts in all NATO countries. Nevertheless, it remains confident of a strong second half and meeting full-year expectations.


FTSE 100 - Risers
Whitbread (WTB) 1,963.00p +6.17%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,501.00p +4.45%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 508.00p +3.55%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,105.00p +2.98%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,534.00p +2.81%
Evraz (EVR) 282.10p +2.58%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 963.00p +2.45%
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. (ENRC) 424.20p +2.44%
Hammerson (HMSO) 427.10p +2.25%
BG Group (BG.) 1,257.50p +2.15%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Unilever (ULVR) 2,039.00p -2.30%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 3,325.00p -1.89%
Experian (EXPN) 919.50p -1.50%
Diageo (DGE) 1,579.50p -1.40%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 639.00p -1.16%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,544.00p -0.90%
Serco Group (SRP) 544.00p -0.73%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,579.00p -0.62%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 1,222.00p -0.57%
Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) 2,392.00p -0.33%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Home Retail Group (HOME) 91.85p +23.54%
Dixons Retail (DXNS) 14.90p +9.56%
Kentz Corporation Ltd. (KENZ) 353.70p +8.83%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 256.00p +4.49%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 175.70p +4.46%
SEGRO (SGRO) 220.80p +3.32%
Stobart Group Ltd. (STOB) 121.40p +3.32%
Genus (GNS) 1,166.00p +3.09%
Raven Russia Ltd (RUS) 57.90p +2.93%
Phoenix Group Holdings (DI) (PHNX) 469.00p +2.90%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Chemring Group (CHG) 294.10p -9.06%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 450.40p -7.29%
Bumi (BUMI) 345.50p -3.71%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 609.50p -2.71%
NMC Health (NMC) 197.50p -2.47%
Domino Printing Sciences (DNO) 552.00p -2.30%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 575.00p -2.29%
Ruspetro (RPO) 127.30p -2.08%
Melrose (MRO) 364.20p -1.73%
AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI) (AZEM) 292.40p -1.32%


ON THE SHARECRAZY BLOG

Greek Tragedy - When the Hades is the final act asks Tom Winnifrith

The latest state of play is thus. Back at the Death Star the Imperial council is celebrating the win for New Democracy and the fact that it appears that Pasok will play ball and agree to a coalition of fat old crooks. There will be some horse-trading as they work out which crook gets to put his gingers in the till at which department but a deal will be done. Crack open the retsina and let's party. The EU establishment is smugly please.

But hang on, Syriza (the rebel alliance) is the second largest party in Greece and it will just sit there opposing every diktat coming from the Death Star which ND/Pasok will agree to as a condition of bailout. I know that Greece has 4 times as many Civil Servants per head of population than Germany and that 150,000 of them ( 1.5% of the entire population, 3% of the working population) needs to be fired. But before my pal Waz Shakoor pipes up that Greece needs a German diktat to introduce much needed reforms, let us remember that this is not a textbook academic exercise, we are talking about real people here.

Click here to read the read of the article


TIP OF THE DAY

Regency Mines* - 67% increase in the JORC Resource for the Mambare nickel-cobalt project. Speculative Buy at 1.8p with a 4.9p target price

A report by Growth Equities & Company Research

Regency Mines is a mineral exploration & development company focused on the exploration of copper and nickel in Western Australia, Queensland and Papua New Guinea. The company has just announced an increased JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate for the Mambare nickel-cobalt project in Papua New Guinea of 162.5 million tonnes grading 0.94% nickel and 0.09% cobalt which equates to 1.53 million tonnes of contained nickel at a 0.60% nickel cut-off grade. This represents a 67% increase in contained nickel compared to the April 2012 estimate.

Click here to read the read of the article


WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
Glencore: Jefferies keeps buy rating.

TalkTalk: Jefferies hikes target from 166p to 225p, buy recommendation maintained.

Click here for the rest of the broker recommendations

THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD

The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:

Hornby Group

Rivington Street Holdings

Falkland Oil & Gas

Xcite Energy

Running trading thread

Click here to discuss shares with other ShareCrazy members


BOOK OF THE WEEK

The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It's Too Good to Be True

By Simon Lack

A book review by Luka Lukic of t1ps.com

Hedge funds have always been the talk of the town. Every year we read about the billions paid to top 10 hedge fund managers and investors rush to give their money to them in the hopes of exceptional return. However, in this brutally honest book, industry insider Simon Lack looks to strip away the facade and reveal the cold truth about the profits hedge funds actually make. In the first sentence of the book he writes: "If all the money that's ever been invested in hedge funds had been put in treasury bills instead, the results would have been twice as good." A staggering statement which leads us to question why they have been placed on a pedestal.

Click here to view the rest of the article

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ShareCrazy Poll
Which will be the first country to leave the Euro ?

Germany
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
None will leave

View Results
 
 
 
 



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