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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

European Residential Property - The Horror story begins writes Tom Winnifrith in the ShareCrazy Morning Market View

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Wednesday 20 June 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY

The only way not to think about money is to have a great deal of it
- Edith Wharton


THIS MORNING IN LONDON

FTSE 100

5,609.04

22.73   0.41%

FTSE 250

10,922.88

51.95   0.48%

FTSE 350

2,972.84

12.32   0.42%



FTSE All Share

2,907.39

11.95   0.41%

AIM 100

3,083.61

27.15   0.89%

AIM All Share

683.74

4.58   0.67%


11:56 am

Stocks gain on stimulus hopes

- Stocks pare losses after MPC minutes
- Markets await the Fed decision later today
- Aviva, ITV and Sage gain; ex-div stocks drag

The Bank of England's (BoE's) vote on maintaining its asset purchase programme proved to be a contentious issue last month and the news provided a boost to stock markets on Wednesday, as investors showed optimism that the central bank would increase quantitative easing measures at the next meeting.

June's vote on whether to beef up the BoE's asset purchase programme was closer than expected, with a 5-4 split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in favour of maintaining the status quo. The previous month the MPC had voted 7-1 in favour of leaving the QE pot at GBP325bn. This month, Paul Fisher argued for a GBP25bn increase while external committee members Adam Posen and David Miles were joined by Bank of England governor Mervyn King in voting for a GBP50bn increase.

"Most members judged that some further economic stimulus was either warranted immediately or would probably become warranted in order to meet the inflation target," the minutes said.

Nevertheless, markets were trading within a narrow range this morning, as investors await the outcome of the latest two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors are hoping that members will vote on further easing measures in light of recent mixed economic data and Eurozone concerns.

A close eye will be kept on Greece also, as party leaders attempt to form a coalition as early as today. Pasok socialist party leader Evangelos Venizelos has said that an agreement could be reached by midday.

FTSE 100: Insurers gain on Fitch comments

Insurance giant Aviva was on the rise after Fitch Ratings said that insurance companies are less exposed than banks to contagion risk triggered by a Greek exit from the Eurozone "because of insurers' ability to share losses with policyholders and their lower reliance on short-term funding." Prudential, Legal & General and RSA Insurance were also making gains.

Heavyweight utilities stocks Severn Trent and United Utilities were heavy fallers after going ex-dividend; from today, investors will not have the right to their latest dividend payments.

ITV was extending gains after announcing a tender offer for up to GBP250m on Monday in an effort to reduce debt and cut future interest expense. Panmure Gordon said this morning that the action is "very welcome" and should see upgrades to consensus EPS estimates. Meanwhile, rumours that private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) could be considering a bid for the terrestrial broadcaster could also be giving shares a lift today.

Accountancy software behemoth Sage Group rose after acquiring a 75% interest in Folhamatic Group, a provider of accounting, tax and payroll and regulatory content software in Brazil, for GBP125m. Investec upgraded its rating on the stock today from 'sell' to 'hold' after the shares surpassed its target price.

Investors celebrated Rio Tinto's plans to invest billions in two iron ore operations. The mining giant is investing $4.2bn in expanding operations in Western Australia and Guinea. The money is part of a $16bn investment programme that Rio has planned for 2012.

AstraZeneca fell after having successfully completed its acquisition of California-based biotechnology company Ardea Biosciences for $1.2bn.

Oilfield services group Petrofac dropped despite being declared as the selected bidder on the Pánuco integrated production service contract in Mexico.

Mid-cap movers: Aer Lingus flies sky high after Ryanair bid

Irish carrier Aer Lingus has told shareholders to do nothing and wait for advice from the board after rival Ryanair again staged to takeover bid for the airline. The latter has now made three unsolicited offers, with the latest valuing Aer Lingus at EURO694m. Aer Lingus was up 27% early on.

European electrical goods retailer Kesa Electricals sank after saying that Chairman David Newlands is to be succeeded by the group's Senior Independent Director, Alan Parker. The news came as the group slashed its dividend following a sharp decline in profits in a year in which it disposed of its Comet retail chain for just GBP2 - and even then it had to pump in GBP30m of cash to persuade turnaround specialist OpCapita to take it off its hands.

FTSE 100 - Risers
Aviva (AV.) 276.30p +3.64%
Sage Group (SGE) 262.20p +3.43%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 512.00p +3.25%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,127.00p +2.83%
ITV (ITV) 76.30p +2.76%
Glencore International (GLEN) 337.90p +2.39%
Xstrata (XTA) 885.10p +2.34%
Schroders (SDR) 1,310.00p +2.34%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,122.50p +2.34%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 988.50p +2.33%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,645.00p -5.95%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,467.00p -2.98%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 654.50p -2.24%
Unilever (ULVR) 2,037.00p -1.83%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 272.70p -1.30%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 3,353.00p -1.30%
Aggreko (AGK) 2,062.00p -1.10%
Experian (EXPN) 928.00p -1.07%
Next (NXT) 3,171.00p -0.88%
Vodafone Group (VOD) 176.90p -0.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 2,689.00p +4.06%
Chemring Group (CHG) 304.60p +3.78%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 505.50p +3.78%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 124.30p +3.50%
Homeserve (HSV) 158.90p +3.38%
National Express Group (NEX) 205.30p +3.17%
Halma (HLMA) 412.70p +3.07%
Phoenix Group Holdings (DI) (PHNX) 486.30p +3.05%
Senior (SNR) 192.90p +2.93%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 469.40p +2.74%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Carpetright (CPR) 693.00p -4.87%
Dairy Crest Group (DCG) 315.00p -4.57%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 88.50p -3.65%
3i Infrastructure (3IN) 120.70p -2.35%
Electrocomponents (ECM) 204.00p -1.83%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 630.50p -1.79%
Mitie Group (MTO) 269.50p -1.79%
Utilico Emerging Markets Ltd (DI) (UEM) 164.00p -1.74%
Regus (RGU) 90.10p -1.69%
BH Global Ltd. USD Shares (BHGU) 11.3 -1.65%


ON THE SHARECRAZY BLOG

European Residential Property - The Horror story begins writes Tom Winnifrith

The latest state of play is thus. Back at the Death Star the Imperial council is celebrating the win for New Democracy and the fact that it appears that Pasok will play ball and agree to a coalition of fat old crooks. There will be some horse-trading as they work out which crook gets to put his gingers in the till at which department but a deal will be done. Crack open the retsina and let's party. The EU establishment is smugly please.

But hang on, Syriza (the rebel alliance) is the second largest party in Greece and it will just sit there opposing every diktat coming from the Death Star which ND/Pasok will agree to as a condition of bailout. I know that Greece has 4 times as many Civil Servants per head of population than Germany and that 150,000 of them ( 1.5% of the entire population, 3% of the working population) needs to be fired. But before my pal Waz Shakoor pipes up that Greece needs a German diktat to introduce much needed reforms, let us remember that this is not a textbook academic exercise, we are talking about real people here.

Click here to read the read of the article


WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
MoneySupermarket.com: Peel Hunt upgrades to buy, target lifted from 120p to 130p.

Tui Travel: Nomura initiates with neutral rating and 168p target.

Click here for the rest of the broker recommendations

THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD

The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:

Vatukoula Gold

Goldstone Resources

Mobilewave Group

Hornby Group

Running trading thread

Click here to discuss shares with other ShareCrazy members


BOOK OF THE WEEK

The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It's Too Good to Be True

By Simon Lack

A book review by Luka Lukic of t1ps.com

Hedge funds have always been the talk of the town. Every year we read about the billions paid to top 10 hedge fund managers and investors rush to give their money to them in the hopes of exceptional return. However, in this brutally honest book, industry insider Simon Lack looks to strip away the facade and reveal the cold truth about the profits hedge funds actually make. In the first sentence of the book he writes: "If all the money that's ever been invested in hedge funds had been put in treasury bills instead, the results would have been twice as good." A staggering statement which leads us to question why they have been placed on a pedestal.

Click here to view the rest of the article

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ShareCrazy Poll
Which will be the first country to leave the Euro ?

Germany
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
None will leave

View Results
 
 
 
 



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