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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring SSE, WH Smith and Leni Gas & Oil


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 10th October 2013

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The Markets

European markets reacted positively to news that U.S law makers are making progress on an agreement to increase the debt ceiling. The news will be welcomed by investors who feared that saga would rumble on beyond the 17th October deadline that would result in the U.S technically defaulting. Any such an event could be catastrophic for the global economy and could potentially drag the U.S back into recession. Jawaid Afsar, sales trader at SecurEquity said on the current shape of the FTSE 100, "The FTSE 100 may bounce from here given its oversold nature but may struggle to make any real headway. The downside is the least path of resistance with the 200-day moving average (6,416) acting as a ceiling."

Yet again the Bank of England (BoE) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% - they have now remained at this level since March 2009. The decision is consistent with Governor Mark Carney's pledge to only consider increasing rates when the unemployment rate falls to 7%. David Tinsley of BNP Paribas said the decision came as no surprise, commenting, "Overall, UK monetary policy settings for now are on auto-pilot, barring the US debt ceiling debate getting very messy."

French industrial production grew by less than expected in August despite a sharp increase in output from car manufacturers. According to data from the French Statistics Institute INSEE, Industrial output in France grew by 0.2% in August, well up on the 0.6% contraction which was delivered in July. Although the August data represent an improvement on July's figures, the numbers still came in below expectations. Dominique Barbet at BNP Paribas said the data, "showed that French manufacturing is still on a falling trend, despite structural reforms."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 186.11 points at 14,989.09 and the Nasdaq grew by 46.03 points to 3,188.57.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 92.58 points at 6,430.49 and the FTSE 250 swelled by 258.61 points to 14,896.61. The FTSE All-Share increased by 50.57 points to 3429.82 while the FTSE AIM Index was up by 8.83 points at 780.26.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Singer initiated coverage on wine merchant Majestic Wine (MJW) with a target price of 590p. The broker is encouraged by the company's plans to expand its store estate and is impressed with Majestic's ambitions to drive multi-channel sales, growing market share in fine wine and commercial wine in the process. N+1 Singer is also seduced by the company's above average EPS growth forecast along with "solid" ROCE relative to peers. The shares increased by 6.5p to 540p. The shares increased by 6.5p to 540p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "hold" recommendation on investment manager Ashmore Group (ASHM), increasing its target price from 380p to 400p. The broker acknowledges risks to Ashmore in the form of the unknown pace and trajectory of US tapering as well as the current debt ceiling saga. Despite this, Canaccord argues that the long term investment case remains intact given the group's prominence in emerging market debt markets. The shares increased by 10.3p to 402.5p.

Northland Capital stuck with its "buy" stance on Aureus Mining (AUE) after the Liberia based gold mine developer raised 9.9 million pounds. The broker feels that, given the progress on its debt facilities and the exciting exploration potential at Bea Mountain, Aureus offers a more robust, lower-risk investment with the prospect of better returns than typical of its peers. As such, Northland continues to view the company as one of the top-picks in the West African Junior gold mining sector. The shares slid by 0.25p to 30p.

Blue Chips

Defence giant BAE Systems (BA.) claimed that trading has been in line with expectations since July, with double digit growth in earnings expected for 2013. The company - which has major contracts with the US and UK governments - said that the benefits from the share buyback should more or less offset downside arising from reductions to US defence budgets. However, the update failed to convince Bank of America Merill Lynch which re-iterated its "underperform" recommendation and 412p target price. The shares swelled by 10.7p to 450.7p.

Energy provider SSE (SSE) confirmed that it is it to increase household electricity and gas tariffs on 15th November, blaming the increase on the rising cost of buying wholesale energy, the hike in price to deliver it to customers' homes and the implementation of government-imposed levies. The announcement comes soon after Labour leader Ed Miliband declared that gas and electricity bills would not go up for 20 months if Labour won the 2015 election - a pledge which drew criticism from politicians and business leaders alike. The shares were down by 5p at 1,449p.

Engineering firm Melrose (MRO) claimed that it has signed an agreement for the disposal of lifting equipment company Crosby and material handling equipment maker Acco to private equity firm KKR & Co in a combined deal worth around $1.01 billion (627.3 million pounds). Melrose said the sale was an example of its "buy, improve, sell" strategy in its endeavours to return value to shareholders. The news comes after Investec upgraded its "add" stance to a "buy" recommendation earlier this week. The shares inched up by 5.1p to 295.2p.

Mid Caps

High street retailer WH Smith (SMWH) announced a 6% increase in pre-tax profits to 108 million pounds for the year ended 31st August despite a 5% fall in like-for-like sales over the period. The company - which operates from over 1,200 stores - attributed the increase in profitability to good delivery of its cost cutting programme and a sales mix of more profitable products. As a result of the success, the company increased its full-year dividend by 14% to 30.7p. The shares surged by 47p to 882p.

Recruiter Hays (HAS) said that trading was "encouraging" over the 3 months ended 30th September, with a poor performance in the Asia-Pacific more than offset by growth in the UK, continental Europe and the rest of the world. Divisionally, it was the temporary unit which once again delivered the better growth figures as businesses look to service the extra demand bought about by moderately improving economies without jumping the gun and over committing themselves. The shares crept upwards by 2.5p to 118.1p.

Healthcare outsourcer Synergy Health (SYR) claimed that earnings for the 6 months ended 29th September are likely to be delivered in line with expectations due to increased margins rather than growth in revenues. For precise numbers, investors will have to wait until the 12th November when the interim results are released. On the back of the update, broker N+1 Singer put its "buy" recommendation and 1,220p target price under review. The shares dropped by 2p to 1,003p.

Small Caps

Oil producer Leni Gas & Oil (LGO) says that combined net oil production from its operations in Trinidad and Spain has breached the 500 barrels per day mark. Leni explained that most of the growth was driven by its assets in Trinidad where it is having success in reactivated existing wells. Given this new level of production, the company's post-tax profit from operations now exceeds US$300,000 per month - an amount which the oil producers not only say is sustainable, but expandable too. The shares edged up by 0.11p to 0.85p.

The Real Food Group (RGD) announced that its trading subsidiary, Napier Brown, has secured two major new supply contracts from Asda and Booker,the retailer and wholesaler respectively. The deal commits The Real Food Group to supply 60 separate product lines each day, including the Whitworths everyday and specialist ranges. Separately, the group said construction of its 3.5 million pounds sugar handling facility in Humberside was nearing completion, a facility which should apparently help the group to distribute products across the north of the UK more efficiently. The shares jumped by 2p to 53.5p.

X-ray imaging specialist Image Scan Holdings (IGE) warned that full year revenues are likely to come in at 2.5 million pounds for the year ended 30th September, well down on the 4.3 million pounds which was recorded in the previous year. The company attributed the shortfall to a combination of a large one-off contract in the nuclear sector in 2011 and the relatively small order book at the start of this year. On a positive note, the group said that its ongoing restructuring efforts have helped cut overheads by 20% over the period. The shares shares rose by 0.25p to 3p.

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Driver Group (DRV), the engineering consultancy, said that it was "delighted" with its trading performance over the year ended 30th September. The group said that revenues are "significantly ahead" of last year while pre-tax profits are likely to be delivered in line with expectations. The group hinted that Africa, Europe and the Middle East all finished the year strongly and now have "strong" order books going into this financial year. The shares drove upwards by 6.5p to 128p.

Software provider Lombard Risk Management (LRM) responded to recent speculation by confirming that it is in the final stages of securing a major "contract" to provide its COLLINE collateral product to a large European bank. Although financial details of the arrangement were not disclosed to the market, the company did stress that the deal would support the company in meeting market forecasts for the current year. The shares were up by 0.5p to 12.5p.

Immudiagnostic Systems Holdings (IDH), producer of medical diagnostic kits, revealed that trading over the six months ended 30th September was in line with market expectations. The medical group expects revenues for the year to come in at 27 million pounds, an increase of 13% on the prior year period. The revenue growth was driven by an expansion in activity in the firm's automated sector, in a trend which helped to cancel out a 14% slump in revenues generated by the manual division. The shares swelled by 15.625p to 476.75p.

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