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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Centrica, Kier and Caza Oil & Gas


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 15th November
2012


The Markets

The Eurozone has slipped back to recession for the first time since 2009 as the debt riddled countries within struggle with reduced demand. GDP of the 17 nation bloc shrunk by 0.1% between July and September after contracting by 0.2% in the previous three months. Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank said "This fall into recession was totally expected because of austerity policies, combined with world growth slowing".

In the UK, The Office for National Statistics reported that UK retail sales fell by more than expected in October as shoppers cut back on food and clothing purchases. Sales volumes fell by 0.8% last month after rising by 0.5% in September, with food stores reporting the biggest monthly decline in sales since November 2011.

In the U.S, Barack Obama has reiterated his call for high earners in the country to pay more tax in an attempt to stimulate the floundering economy. This is part of the President's plans to make 380 billion pounds worth of savings. He went on to say "We should not hold the middle class hostage while we debate tax cuts for the wealthy".

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 34.39 points at 12,536.56 and the Nasdaq fell by 8.65 points to 2,523.22.

In London the FTSE 100 decreased by 44.26 points to 5,679.27; the FTSE 250 finished 51.23 points down at 11,667.42; the FTSE All-Share lost 20.61 points to 2,968.42; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped 3.53 points to 685.46.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital maintained its "buy" recommendation on insurance firm Amlin (AML) after it released its Q3 management statement. The broker interpreted the release as largely positive and noted the 11% growth in premiums written in the 10 months so far this year as well as an "excellent" average investment return of 3.6%. The broker also believes that the company is well positioned to absorb claims resulting from hurricane Sandy. The shares gained 6.5p to 373.5p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation on Snoozebox (ZZZ), the producer of mobile accommodation, and increased its target price to 86p from 56p. This comes after the company raised 8.4 million in a placing at 55p per share. The proceeds will fund 117 rooms to be installed at Thorpe Park. The broker also notes strong progress made by the company's Contrax product - which has a lower specification and used more for commercial purposes - and promising licensing opportunities in India, the Middle East and Russia. The shares dropped by 2p to 61.5p.

Canaccord Genuity has stuck with its "sell" stance on chemicals company Croda International (CRDA) with a target price of 1,900p, despite many of its competitors opting to upgrade their own recommendations. The broker feels that although the firm is better positioned than others in the sector, its portfolio is more sensitive to cyclical slowdowns then the market had expected. The broker is also cautious of the fact that growth in operating profits has slowed to less than 10% in the last two quarters as opposed to 2006-2011, where growth was over 30%. Shares in the company inched up by 1p to 2,278p.

Blue-Chips

National Grid (NG.) reported a 37% increase in pre-tax profits to 1.285 billion pounds as earnings shot up by 32% to 1.05 billion pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September, excluding the impact of major storms. As a result, the firm has raised its interim dividend by 4%. National Grid estimates that expenses following hurricane Sandy will not exceed 100 million pounds. The shares slipped down 3p to 691p.

Copper giant Antofagasta (ANTO) posted a 16.3% increase in group revenues to $4.852 billion dollars (3.061 billion pounds) for the nine months ended 30th September. The increase was largely driven by increased copper, gold and molybdenum volumes, but partly offset by a fall in the average realised copper and molybdenum prices. The reported 13% increase in EBITDA to $2.832 billion dollars (1.787 billion pounds) over the period was squeezed by an increase in the weighted cash costs per pound, which were up from 142.5 cents (90p) to 146.4 cents (92p). Shares in the company dropped by 14p to 1,229p.

British Gas owner Centrica (CNA) is on track to make 1.4 billion pounds of profits after tax this year as customers brace themselves for a 6% rise in energy bills. Average UK gas consumption was up 9% for the first 10 months of the year reflecting colder than normal weather and an unusually warm 2011. The profit figure comes despite increased costs involving the UK's gas and electricity carbon reduction targets which have added approximately 50 pounds to the cost of supplying the average household, on top a 13% increase in wholesale gas prices. The shares fell by 1.8p to 316.5p.

Oil Giant BP (BP.) is the subject of the biggest criminal fine in US history as part of a settlement plan relating to the deepwater horizon disaster in 2010 when 11 people lost their lives. The 4 billion dollars (2.5 billion pounds) fine imposed by the department of justice will be paid in installments over a period of 5 years. The disaster, which released millions of barrels of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico over 87 days, may even result in a small number of BP staff being arrested. The shares shrunk by 0.35p to 425.4p.

Mid-Caps

Construction firm Kier (KIE) is in line to meet expectations for the current financial year, with a bias towards the second half, as forecast. The Construction division of the business has secured 400 million pounds worth of new work since 1st July 2012, where margins remain within expectations. In the Services division, the firm has secured new work in excess of 200 million pounds, which underpins the 2.1 billion order book already in place. The shares were up by 37p at 1,143p.

Civil engineering company Atkins (ATK) reported a 14% increase in profit before tax to 50.4 million pounds for the 6 months to 30th September, despite a 3.2% decrease in revenues to 815.7 million pounds. The drop in revenue was driven by a UK asset management sale in 2011, while increased profits were boosted by strong growth in the Asia Pacific region , Europe and Energy. As a result of these promising figures, the overall outlook for the full year remains unchanged and the company has raised its dividend by 2.6%. The shares climbed by 72p to 710p.

Global technology company Invensys (ISYS) reported a 2% dip in revenues to 1.2 billion pounds as good growth in operations management more than offset an expected decline at Invensys Rail and a softening demand in appliances. However, operating profits grew by 2% to 102 million pounds driven by strong growth in higher margin software revenue. The shares rose by 5.7p to 221.7p.

Small Caps & AIM

Security Research Group (SRG) announced a 122% increase in pre-tax profits to 8.6 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September as the company remained focused on fulfilling a 50 million pounds contract it was awarded by the Ministry of Defence. As this contract will be completed by the year end, resources will then be available for the company to develop new products and markets. The shares soared by 16p to 123.5p.

Nakama Group (NAK), the digital recruitment company, announced an 81% increase in revenues to 8.64 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th September 2012, primarily reflecting additional sales following the acquisition of Nakama in October 2011. On a more downbeat note, the board recently discovered the significant misappropriation of company funds and of misreporting from the Hong Kong office. The manager in question has been instantly dismissed and related debtors are being pursued. The shares tumbled by 0.5p to 1.5p.

Ablon Group (ABL), a property developer in Central Europe, reported a 7% drop in gross rental income to 16.5 million euros (13.3 million pounds) as a consequence of lower rent levels, while occupancy levels remained virtually unchanged. As the depressed market conditions continue, the company is currently negotiating a mid-term loan prolongation with Deutche Pfandbriefbank in an attempt to turn its three core projects from being cash flow negative to cash flow positive. The shares lost 0.88p to 15.13p.

Clean Air Power (CAP), the developer of combustion technology, has received a "significant" Genesis Edge systems order from an undisclosed European logistics operator. The order is for a further 30 units of its Renault Magnum compatible Genesis Edge Dual-Fuel retrofit systems which it launched last year. The shares increased by 0.25p to 7p.

Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA) reported a 2% increase in production to 21,999 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the three-month period ended 30th September 2012. Despite this increase in production, revenues from oil and gas sales decreased by 9% to 902,602 dollars (569,500 pounds), primarily driven by an 11% decrease in commodity prices. The shares lost $C0.04 to $C0.26.

Opsec Security Group (OSG), the supplier of anti-counterfeiting technology, revealed a 28% rise in group revenues to 25.5 million pounds and a 115% surge in operating profits to 25.5 million pounds. This strong performance reflects the strong ordering from our customers in the government protection sector and the impact of the acquisition of Delta Labelling earlier this year. The shares were up 1p to 45p.


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