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Thursday, November 1, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Lloyds, The Restaurant Group and Eros International


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 1st November
2012

The Markets

Growth figures from China showed that manufacturing activities have expanded for the first time in three months, with the Purchasing Manager's Index rising to 50.2 in October, from 49.8 in September. China's economy had been aching after demand for its exports dropped globally and this positive news comes a week before the country's once-in-a-decade change in leadership. Back home, manufacturing in the UK contracted for the sixth consecutive month due to a combination of cost increases and a drop in new orders. Overall, the UK's economy grew in the third quarter but these results may call into question the true health of the recovery. Staying in the UK, a report from Nationwide suggested that the housing market will take time to gain momentum despite a rise in prices this October compared with the previous month. According to the report, prices were down by 0.9% on October 2011, with three months of rises and three months of falls seen since May.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 128.51 points at 13,224.69 and the Nasdaq was down by 18.78 points at 2,969.17.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 79.22 points to 5,861.92; the FTSE 250 finished 156.88 points up at 12091.83; the FTSE All-Share gained 38.88 points to 3,063.28; and the FTSE AIM Index increased by 28.36 points to 3155.35.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce maintained its "buy" recommendation on Dixons (DXNS) and upgraded its target price to 26p from 24p. The recommendation comes amid news that nearest competitor Comet has appointed administrators. Seymour Pierce believes that Dixons is in a position to be a beneficiary of Comet's misfortune. Meanwhile, the broker noted that the firm's position in the Nordic countries is continuing to improve. The shares jumped 2.78p to 23.38p.

Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Experian (EXPN) with a "sell" rating and 890p target price. The broker forecasts a slump in the credit checker's organic growth due to a deterioration of the Brazilian economy, which was the primary engine of growth in 2012, accounting for 20% of sales and 50% of organic sales growth. The broker sees a period of "sharp deceleration" in credit formation in Brazil and cites a sharp drop in real GDP growth from 4% to 0.5% coupled with waning employment prospects. The shares fell by 4p to 1,066p.

Shore Capital reiterated its “buy” stance on Standard Chartered (STAN) after it was impressed with the company's “strong underlying cost control in the face of an increasing macroeconomic headwind.” Shore Capital noted that the group is due to pay a 340 million dollars (210.5 million pounds) settlement package to the New York State Department of Financial Services, but maintained that the firm's long term prospects remain attractive, given its strong presence in emerging markets. The shares dropped 19p to 1,482.5p.

Blue-Chips

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) announced profits of 4.5 billion pounds for the three months ended 30th September 2012, a fall of 15% on last year's comparable performance. The company blamed the fall on lower oil and gas prices. Sales fell by 8.9% to 69.4 billion pounds, which was attributed to the global economic slowdown and lower demand for oil. Chief executive of the world's second largest publicly quoted oil company by revenues, Peter Vosser, said the figures reflected "progress in a difficult industry environment". The shares increased 51p to 2,241.5p.

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) reported a pre-tax loss of 583 million pounds for the nine months ended 30th September 2012, this figure included a 1 billion pound additional provision that the bank set aside to pay back customers who were wrongly sold Payment Protection Insurance. On a positive note, the company reduced its costs by 5% and believes it is in shape to cut them to 10 billion pounds per annum, down 1 billion pounds from 2010 and two years ahead of schedule. The shares decreased by 3.36p to 43.94p.

BSkyB (BSY) revealed revenues of 1.7 billion pounds for the three months ended 30th September 2012, up 4% on same the period last year. The company's customer base grew by 48,000 quarter-on-quarter and 1 in 3 punters now take all three of Sky's home products - TV, broadband and talk. Sky Sports did particularly well for the quarter, with Andy Murray's US open win and Europe's triumph at the Ryder Cup capturing 4.5 million and 4.8 million viewers respectively. The shares soared by 50p to 759p.

Mid-Caps

The Restaurant Group (RTN) reported an increase in sales of 8.25% and a 3.5% rise in like-for-like sales for the 43 weeks to 28th October 2012. The group has opened 16 new sites in 2012 so far, including Brighton Marina and Coast to Coast, which the company said are performing well and in a position to provide good returns in the future. Shares in the company were down 8.2p to 383p.

Oil and gas group Soco International (SIA) saw a 400% increase in production output for the nine months ended 30th September 2012 and averaged 13,755 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This increase was driven by the firm's Vietnamese Te Giac Trang project which commenced a month ahead of schedule in July 2012, driving total average daily production to over 50,000 barrels of oil per day. The shares were up by 11.6p to 349.4p.

Defence firm Chemring Group (CHG) issued a profits warning, stating that there has been a delay in the granting of export licenses which is not likely to be resolved in the short-term. Furthermore, the signing of a contract to provide aircraft countermeasures to a customer in the Middle East has been delayed and there have been technical problems with a different countermeasure, resulting in rejection by the prospective customer of that product. All of this has resulted in Chemring lowering its earnings expectations for the financial year ended 31st October 2012 by 13p per share. The shares plummeted by 53.1p to 260.6p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Audiovisual interaction specialist Mirada* (MIRA) reported an 8% increase in revenues to 2.46 million pounds for the six months ended 30th September 2012. Pre-tax profits were 0.61 million pounds, which was a swing from a 0.23 million pounds loss for the same period last year. The group's performance was boosted by high levels of recurring licence fees from a number of large customers. The firm also noted that negotiations are ongoing with internet television infrastructure supplier Ericsson as both parties look to secure deals relating to Latin America and Eastern Europe. The shares surged up 4p to 14.5p.

Ultrasis (ULT), the provider of cognitive behavioural therapy for stress, has secured a three year contract with South Carolina based Benefit Alternatives (CBA). CBA has 1.2 million members and is South Carolina's biggest provider of behavioural therapy whose customers include Bluechoice Heathplan, the Federal Employee Program and Planned Administrators. Chief Executive, Nigel Brabbins said "This is a significant breakthrough ... and should attract interest from many other health insurers and healthcare providers.” The shares increased by 0.02p to 0.42p.

Indian film company Eros International (EROS) reported a 6.1% dip in revenues to 86.4 million dollars (53.5 million pounds) for the 6 months ended 30th September. Underlying profits fell by 40.9% to 19.1 million dollars (11.8 million pounds). Major film releases in the period included Housefull 2, which grossed over 27.4 million dollars (17 million pounds), Cocktail, Teri Meri Kahaani and Vicky Donor. Shares in Eros fell by 5p to 194.5p.

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC) announced probable ore reserves of 2.5 billion tonnes at 34% iron after completing the pipeline pre feasibility study at its project in the Republic of Congo. Zanaga believe that this project is one of the most attractive iron ore projects globally and would support the development of a 30 million tonne per annum initial development phase over a 30 year mine life. The shares decreased by 0.125p to 37.875p.

Noricum Gold (NMG), the Austrian miner, announced significant gold, silver and copper deposits were identified after a helicopter borne electromagnetic survey at the Wandstollen and Altenberg target areas. These results confirm the presence of gold in a previously unexplored area along an 8km strike length. The company is currently conducting a 3D laser scan of the previously producing Rotgulden Mine. Noricum's shares rose 0.15p to 0.98p.

Wireless technology developer Toumaz (TMZ) has secured a pilot in a major hospital to trial its SensiumVitals product. The product in question is an ultra thin plaster which continuously monitors the patient’s heart rate while allowing the patient to remain mobile. The product can potentially provide cost savings for hospitals as it may be able to reduce the number of patients who need to be admitted or readmitted to costly intensive care. The shares crept up 0.13p to 6p.

* Mirada is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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