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Thursday, June 7, 2012

Conygar Investment Company - Go Ahead for Marina Development at Holyhead Waterfront. Buy at 89.125p with a 145.5p target price

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7th June 2012

Analyst: Andrew Noone
Email: andrew.noone@gecr.co.uk
Tel: 0207 562 3361


Conygar Investment Company - Go Ahead for Marina Development at Holyhead Waterfront. Buy at 89.125p with a 145.5p target price

Key Data

EPIC

CIC

Share Price

89.125p

Spread

87.25p - 91p

NMS

3,000

Total no of Shares

100.15 million

Market Cap

£89.26 million

12 Month Range

84p - 117p

Market

AIM

Website

www.conygar.com

Sector

Real Estate Investment

Contact

Robert Ware Chief Executive Officer 020 7258 8670


Conygar Investment Company (Conygar), the AIM listed real estate investment and development group, announced on 6th June that the Isle of Anglesey County Council has resolved to grant planning permission for its marina development at Holyhead, Anglesey in Wales. The project is a joint venture between Conygar and Stena Line Ports Limited, called Conygar Stena Line Limited.

This will be a mixed use, large scale development that will include the construction of:

· 326 apartments and townhouses

· A 500 berth marina

· A 50,000 square foot flexible development providing retail, leisure, restaurant, hotel and office space, all of which is marine related and overlooking the marina

It is expected the project will bring much new investment to the area, helping to make the surrounding community more sustainable. Further, public access is a key element of the development, and many provisions built in to the development should assist local amenities and visitor attractions. As a result, all stages of the development, from construction to operation, should create a range of employment and business opportunities. In addition, a number of historical listed buildings along the waterfront should be put back into use by this development.

It is hoped that the development of the marina should enhance the profile of the entire town, attracting more visitors and improving Holyhead's reputation as a holiday destination. Ultimately, this should lead to further redevelopments in other parts of the town. This includes:

· Regeneration of further listed structures along the waterfront

· An extension of the existing Promenade and the creation of a new beach to the east of the new marina

· Regeneration of and improved access to public spaces

· Formation of partnerships with local businesses and attractions, such as the Breakwater Country Park, to provide benefits to the wider community

While the Isle of Anglesey County Council has resolved to grant planning permission, this resolution is still subject to a number of relevant planning conditions, and the signing of a S.106 agreement to make the terms of the development legally binding.

Valuation

Shares in Conygar are currently trading at a 43.6% discount to NAV, which is significantly wider than our selected peer group. All peer companies have exposure to the UK property market, and two of them, LXB Retail Properties and A&J Mucklow Group PLC, actually trade at a premium to NAV per share.

Table: Peer Group Comparison

Company

Share Price (p)

NAV (p)

(Discount)/Premium

Dividend (p)

Dividend Yield

Conygar

89.125

158

(43.6%)

1.1

1.23%

London & Stamford I

111.8

116.7

(4.2%)

7

6.26%

LXB Retail Properties II

114

111

2.7%

0

0.00%

Max Property Group III

106.5

130

(18.1%)

0

0.00%

IRP Property Investments IV

66.25

79.9

(17.1%)

7.2

10.87%

St. Modwen Properties V

166

232

(28.4%)

3.1

1.87%

A&J Mucklow Group PLC VI

360

306

17.6%

18.21

5.06%

Source: Growth Equities & Company Research

Notes: I NAV as at 31st March 2012, Dividend as at 31st March 2012

II As at 31st March 2012

III NAV as at 31st March 2012

IV NAV as at 31st December 2011, Dividend as at 30th June 2011

V NAV as at 30th November 2011, Dividend as at 30th November 2011

VI NAV as at 31st December 2011, Dividend as at 30th June 2011

The average discount of the six peer companies is 7.9%, and if we apply this discount to Conygar's shares we get a value per share of 145.5p – our new base case target price. We believe the group has continued to add value to its portfolio despite tough trading conditions, through active portfolio management and development. We feel this announcement adds further weight to our argument, as the company is now one step closer to the implementation of a project that could provide significant future returns. We retain our stance of Buy at 89.125p with a 145.5p target price.

Financial Records Table

Year to 30th September

Sales
(£000)

Pre-tax
Profit (£000)

Earnings Per Share* (p)

Price Earnings Ratio** (x)

NAV
(p)

Discount to
NAV** (%)

2008A

9,375

(103)

(0.89)

N/A

163.8

45.6

2009A

16,468

13,688

31.51

2.8

139.5

36.1

2010A

18,515

14,878

11.57

7.7

150.5

40.8

2011A

13,010

1,761

0.98

90.9

155.2

42.6

Source: Company and Growth Equities & Company Research
Notes: * Diluted Earnings per Share

** Based on share price of 89.125p

 



This research note cannot be regarded as impartial as GE&CR has been commissioned to produce it by Conygar Investment Company. It should be regarded as a marketing communication.

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