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Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring HSBC, Betfair and Iofina

From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 7th May 2013

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The Markets

One in five households in Britain were forced to dip into savings or borrow in order to pay for food in April according to a survey from consumer group Which?. The figures seem to be at odds with data revealed last week which suggested that personal insolvencies had fallen to their lowest level in five years. The data also revealed that the households which struggled to cover food costs were mainly comprised of families with income lower than 21,000 pounds per annum, with 30-49 year old parents faring the worst. Which? Executive Director Richard Lloyd warned, "Our tracker shows that many households are stretched to their financial breaking point, with rising food prices one of the top worries for squeezed consumers."

Despite these findings, new car sales in the UK were up by 14.8% year-on-year in April, hitting their highest level since April 2008, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders . It is thought that improved consumer confidence, coupled with a broad range of finance deals, boosted sales in a continuation of a trend which has seen the UK automotive industry outperform the rest of Europe in recent months. However, experts remain cautious on the prospects of the industry with Howard Archer, an Economist at IHS Global Insight, commenting, "The auto sector faces far from easy conditions over the coming months, with consumers confronted by significant headwinds and businesses under pressure to contain costs."

Over in Australia, the nation's central bank trimmed interest rates from 3% to 2.75% in an attempt to combat slowing economic growth within the country. It is thought that the rate cut will encourage investment in the country's mining sector - a driver of growth in recent years - as well as boosting other areas of the economy. The rate cut comes a week after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main rate from 0.75% to 0.5% in a similar attempt to get its economy moving again. Shane Oliver, Chief Economist with AMP Capital Investors was supportive of the cut and said, "I think it was appropriate for the reserve to provide a bit more confidence so that when the mining investment boom starts to wane the rest of the economy will fill the gap."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 49.42 points at 15,018.31 and the Nasdaq was 1.96 points lower at 2,953.40.

In London the FTSE 100 grew by 35.84 points at 6,557.30; the FTSE 250 finished 4.81 points lower at 14,101.42; the FTSE All-Share swelled by 12.56 points to 3,448.22; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped by 1 point to 713.76.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on insurance company esure (ESUR) with a "buy" stance and target price of 330p. The broker is impressed with the group's track record of underwriting profitability from its low risk portfolio and superior market returns. Furthermore, Canaccord feels that the group's key strategic differentiator is the female insurance brand, Sheila's Wheels, which has a base of 0.7 million female drivers, even after the ban on gender pricing came into effect back in December. The shares climbed by 6p to 306p.

Cantor Fitzgerald retained its "buy" recommendation on oil and gas group Providence Resources (PVR) with a target price of 630p. The broker noted that Cairn Energy has agreed to farm into three Providence licenses in the Porcupine Basin. Cantor Feels that the move is beneficial to Providence and brings additional deepwater expertise to the group's technical resource base prior to spudding its first well next year. In the near term the broker is encouraged with prospects at Dunquin and feels that the project could generate significant upside for the group. The shares were flat at 595p.

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation on fashion retailer Next (NXT) with a target price of 4,840p. The broker's long term view is that Next will be the winner in the online race, given its historic and ongoing investment in home shopping. Panmure was also pleasantly surprised with the group's preliminary results - which came in slightly above its expectations in terms of pre-tax profits - and feels that the market as a whole may be slightly under-estimating Next's future fortunes. The shares fell by 19p to 4,406p.

Blue-Chips

Security firm G4S (GFS) revealed that revenues grew by 7.5% over the first three months of the year in an increase boosted by a 12% uplift in turnover from within its emerging markets. G4S - the largest company in the FTSE 100 by number of employees - went on to reveal that group margin was down by around 0.6% in a reflection of tough trading conditions in Europe. Staying in Europe, the group stressed caution on its Dutch business which will have to contend with 30 prison closures as the Netherlands' Ministry of Justice continues with its cost control programme. The shares dived by 45.5p to 260p.

Banking group HSBC (HSBA) posted a 95% increase in pre-tax profits to $8.435 billion (5.45 billion pounds) for the first three months of the year in a rise driven by a successful efficiency drive and a reduction in bad debt charges. Geographically, a good trading performance in Asia - which accounted for two thirds of profits over the period - more than offset a sluggish performance across the Eurozone. Divisionally, the group's investment banking division performed well and grew revenues by 16.5%, underpinned by good returns from its equity investments. The shares were up by 21.1p at 735p.

Supermarket Sainsbury's (SBRY) confirmed that it is in negotiations with Lloyds Banking Group to take full ownership of Sainsbury's Bank. The update from the supermarket group followed a weekend of speculation which rightly suggested that Sainsbury's were to make a bid for Lloyds 50% stake in the bank. Recent consensus on the stock amongst brokers has not been positive, with Goldman Sachs re-iterating its "strong sell" recommendation on the group last month. The shares jumped by 5.6p to 396.5p.

Mid Caps

Online gambling group Betfair (BET) announced that full year profit would be higher than previously thought, partly due to a successful cost cutting campaign which is ahead of target. Betfair now forecasts full year profit of 73 million pounds for the year ended 30th April, ahead of its previous guidance of between 65-70 million pounds. The update comes just weeks after Betfair rejected a 880p per share bid from CVC Capital, an offer which represents a 3.4% premium to today's closing price. The shares increased by 6p to 851p.

National Express (NEX), the transport operator, claimed that trading over the first three months of the year was in-line with expectations, in a period which saw the group launch new services in both the UK and Germany. Revenues generated from within the core UK business were up 1% on last year as a 7% rise in passenger volume was offset by a 10% decline in concession revenues. The shares finished up by 6.4p at 210p.

Oil exploration group Premier Oil (PMO) revealed that it has carried out a "successful" test on its Luno II discovery for which it holds a 30% interest. According to Premier, the production test delivered an average flow rate of 2,044 barrels of oil per day of crude oil. The exploration firm believes that 75 - 130 million barrels of oil equivalent are stored within the site. On the back of the update, Deutsche Bank retained its "buy" recommendation on Premier Oil, increasing its target price from 570p to 615p. The shares were down by 2.7p at 382p.

Small Caps

Surveillance technology firm Synectics (SNX) has secured a three year contract with Stagecoach for the installation of CCTV systems across its coach fleet in a deal worth around 5 million pounds. Synectics claims that its CCTV products offer superior image quality and higher storage capacity compared to the technology of its peers. The deal builds on a 7 million pound contract which the group secured in March for the provision of CCTV for a large unnamed corporate client in Singapore. The shares increased by 8.5p to 438.5p.

Gold producer Patagonia Gold (PGD) expects its Lomada de Leiva gold project in Argentina to start producing cash for the company in the second half of this year. Lomada represents one of four projects Patagonia operates in Argentina including its flagship COSE project. The group also stressed that drilling has recommenced at its nearby La Manchuria project with a total of 4,000 metres of exploration drilling scheduled to be complete by the end of June. The shares inched up by 0.75p to 13.75p.

Ideagen (IDEA), the business software group, declared that it expects to report revenue growth of at least 62% for the year ended 30th April, an increase boosted by improved performances from its UK and US healthcare businesses. The company went on to hint that it may look to expand with further acquisitions after the successful intake of both Plumtree and Proquis Healthcare in the last financial year. The shares crept upwards by 1.875p to 22.125p.

Iodine extraction group Iofina (IOF) reported a 16% increase in revenues to $18.6million (12 million pounds) for 2012 boosted by a record second half to the year, while its pre-tax losses fell from $2.8million (1.8 million pounds) to $1.2 million (0.77 million pounds) over the period. The group, which built its second iodine extraction plant over the period, claimed that it planned to further expand this year, focusing on particular geographic regions where it can "operate most efficiently". The shares swelled by 34.75p to 222p.

Outsourcing group Quindell Portfolio* (QPP) posted a 904% increase in revenues to 137.6 million pounds for 2012, while profits grew 10 fold to 41.2 million pounds. The significant improvement in results came as a result of a succession of earnings enhancing acquisitions and contract wins completed throughout the year, predominantly in the insurance sector. Looking ahead, the group expects to win additional major customers over the remainder of the year as it attempts to build on its recent growth. The shares finished 1.25p lower at 12p.

Stockbrokers Numis Corporation (NUM) announced a 39% increase in revenues to 32.4 million pounds for the six months ended 31st March, while adjusted pre-tax profits were up from 2.6 million pounds to 9.2 million pounds. The group cited a strong flow of funds into equities as market sentiment begins to improve as reason for its uplift in results, which also benefitted from 3 IPOs and 4 retail bond offerings. The shares were up by 6p at 154p.

* Quindell Portfolio is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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