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Thursday, May 9, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Morrisons, SuperGroup and Roxi Petroleum

From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 9th May 2013

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The Markets

UK industrial output grew by more than expected in March, building on modest gains accumulated over the early months of the year. According to the Office for National Statistics industrial output climbed by 0.7% in March, well above consensus analyst forecasts for 0.2% growth. The increase was boosted by increased production of electronics and metals and was also impacted by the cold weather which helped push up electricity production. Lee Hopley, Chief Economist at the EEF manufacturers' organisation, said: "Manufacturing looks to have had another good month in March with the data pointing to encouraging gains across the board, with almost all sectors posting some growth and on-going strength in transport and electrical equipment sectors."

The Bank of England has decided to keep interest rates unchanged and has also held off on extending its quantitative easing measures after a string of moderately good output figures have hinted that the economy could be regaining momentum. The bank left its main interest rate at 0.5% and did not outline plans to pump any more money into the UK economy in a move which was widely expected by analysts. However, Howard Archer, Chief UK & European Economist at IHS Global Insight feels that the Bank will continue with quantitative easing and commented, "Despite the recent improved news on the UK economy, we believe it is still more a question of when the Bank of England will pull the Quantitative Easing trigger again, rather than will they?"

The Slovenian government is set to unveil a plan that it hopes will help to avoid an EU bailout. This comes a week after rating agency Moody's cut the status of Slovenia's bonds to "junk". In a race to convince investors that it has a credible strategy for raising the funds it needs to stay solvent, it is thought that the country will embark on a path of privatisations, including selling its largest telecoms operator and its second largest bank. Borut Hocevar, an Analyst at the Finance Business Daily newspaper in Slovenia, seemed to be supportive of these measures and said, "Privatisation of several companies could this year bring up to 1 billion euros, which would significantly increase Slovenia's chances to avoid a bailout."

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 5.45 points at 15,099.67 and the Nasdaq was 3.14 points lower at 2,965.10.

In London the FTSE 100 grew by 9.26 points to 6,592.74; the FTSE 250 finished 88.34 points higher at 14,281.62; the FTSE All-Share swelled by 7.23 points to 3,473.99; and the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 1.03 points to 715.28.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon re-iterated its "sell" recommendation on construction group Morgan Sindall (MGNS) with a target price of 450p. The broker notes the disappointing Q1 performance of the group and feels that the outlook does not look much better in the short term. On a positive note, Panmure felt that the proposed dividend cut showed that management is prepared to take action in these tough times but remained adamant that the current 4.9% dividend yield is unlikely to be enough to support the share price. The shares fell by 17p to 543p.

Cantor Fitzgerald retained its "sell" stance on retailer Marks and Spencer (MKS) with a target price of 350p. The broker notes the recent opening of the fully automated e-commerce distribution centre at Castle Donington in the East Midlands and feels this is vital for the long-term competitiveness of M&S. However, Cantor is still cautious on the group's womenswear business which "remains undifferentiated and struggling to regain momentum". The shares were up by 4.9p at 421.6p.

Canaccord Genuity maintained its "sell" stance on banking group Standard Chartered(STAN) with a target price of 1,325p. The broker is concerned about a shift in the consumer book towards unsecured lending and feels that these trends are structural in nature and would therefore require a change in business strategy to reverse. In the short-term, Canaccord believes that market expectations of $8.2 billion (5.3 billion pounds) PBT for FY13 are too ambitious and feels that the upcoming results will expose a PBT figure nearer to $7.47 billion (4.8 billion pounds) - putting the share price under downwards pressure in the process. The shares dived by 41p to 1,584p.

Blue-Chips

Engineering group IMI (IMI) revealed that revenues generated within its core Fluid Power division over the first four months of this year were 4% lower than levels seen in 2012. Despite this, the manufacturer of power-generation equipment remains adamant that it is in line to hit full year expectations on the basis of strong revenue growth within its Merchandising division, which has benefitted from good growth its European cosmetics business and increased activity levels in US automotive arm. The shares were up by 59p at 1,337p.

Supermarket Morrisons (MRW) announced a 1.8% dip in like-for-like sales for the 13 weeks ended 5th May, following the previous quarter's 4.1% drop. In addition, the group re-affirmed that its expansion plan is on track, confirming that it opened a further six stores including two Morrisons local stores over the period as it attempts to compete with Tesco and Sainsbury's. To this end, the group also stressed that its plans to launch its first online food operation in partnership with Ocado is "progressing" and should be up and running by January 2014. The shares were down by 8p at 288.4p.

Retail property group Hammerson (HMSO) announced that the occupancy rate across its property portfolio stands at 96.6%, in a portfolio which now includes 50% of the Bulring shopping centre in Birmingham following the acquisition of a further 17% stake in the shopping centre for 154 million pounds. Hammerson also said that group leasing was "in line" with estimated rental value (ERV) with rates being 4.4% above in the UK and 1.3% below in France. Interestingly, not one major broker has issued a "sell" recommendation on the group since July last year. The shares slipped by 4p to 540p.


Mid Caps

Fashion retailer SuperGroup (SGP) revealed a 14.7% increase in group sales to 360.1 million pounds for the year ended 28th April in a performance driven by new store openings. SuperGroup said the solid trading performance has left the group well placed to deliver underlying pre-tax profits in line with market expectations. Despite the uplift in results, broker Espirito Santo Execution re-iterated its "sell" stance on the company, with a 585p target price. The shares crept upwards by 5p to 725p.

Broker Tullet Prebon (TLPR), declared a 4% drop in revenues to 293 million pounds for the first four months of the year as activity in financial markets remained relatively subdued in the face of low volatility in markets across the globe. The group also reported that it is "well prepared" for the implementation in the US of the rules relating to swap and security-based swap execution facilities, launching platforms which are within the scope of the new regulations. The shares jumped by 17.7p to 269.1p.

Software provider Anite (AIE), claimed that pre-tax profits will be at the top end of market expectations after particularly strong trading over the 3 months ended 30th April. The group's handset testing business finished the financial year especially strongly as organic revenues grew by 10% and margins benefitted from a more profitable mix of software sales. Geographically, the group said that it had made "good progress" in the US and Asia-Pacific but, like most firms, Anite found the European market to be challenging given the tough economic climate. The shares increased by 7.7p to 129.2p.

Small Caps

Consumer electronics firm Armour Group (AMR) announced an 11% fall in sales to 16 million pounds for the 6 months ended 28th February as a result of subdued demand in its UK market. Despite this fall in revenues, Armour posted pre-tax profits of 0.2 million pounds after recording a loss of 0.5 million pounds last year. This improvement was driven by an increasing trend in the group's gross margin as management focused on generating "higher quality" revenues that have more of an impact on the bottom line. The shares edged up by 0.13p to 4.75p.

Risk management software group Brady (BRY) revealed that it has secured a contract with Royce Corporation to handle its trading, risk management and logistics processes. Under the agreement, the ferrous metals and plastics trader will implement Brady's trading package which helps with hedging, sale contract management, logistics and traffic operations. The financial details of the arrangement have not been disclosed. The shares swelled by 5.5p to 81.5p.

Oil exploration group Roxi Petroleum (RXP) revealed that its Well 54 at the South Yelemes project in Kazakhstan flowed at an average of 90 barrels of oil a day in the first of three, six day tests. Work is now underway to test a second interval before a third is carried out soon after. Once these results have been analysed, Roxi plans to carry out a 90 day test on the 'most promising' of the three intervals based on the findings of the initial tests. The shares shot up by 0.5p to 3.63p.

Clean fuel company ITM Power (ITM) has received a 0.5 million pounds grant from the Department of Energy & Climate Change to scale up its low-cost alkali PEM technology used for Power-to-Gas energy storage. ITM's PEM technology involves a low cost electrolyser platform scaled up to 1MW level using 16 individual stacks for Power-to-Gas energy storage. The shares skipped by 1.25p to 44p.

Mood Media Corporation (MM.), the interactive media firm, reported a 54% increase in revenues to $129 million (83.2 million pounds) over the first three months of the year, boosted by growth within its North American business. However, the group recorded an operating loss of $4.97 million (3.2 million pounds) after recording an operating profit of $1.75million (1.1 million pounds) in 2012 in a turnaround driven by higher deferred income taxes and higher foreign exchange losses from financing transactions which more than offset the improvement in EBITDA, reduced transaction and restructuring expenses, and lower financial expenses. The shares gained 1p, finishing the day at 66p.

Manufacturer of nano-technology Nanoco Group (NANO) revealed that its CEO, Michael Edelman, will relocate to Boston in the US. According to the group, the relocation will allow Edelman to be close to its key US strategic partners & prospective clients and increase the company's profile amongst US investors. Brokers Canaccord Genuity and Liberum Capital maintained their "buy" recommendations on the group last week. The shares lost 3.25p, finishing the day at 163.5p.

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