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Monday, February 18, 2013

Minesite Newsletter 18th February 2013

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 11th - 18th February 2013
Dear Minesite subscriber,
Weekly Review

The apocalypse at Avocet Mining entered a new phase last week when the company dramatically cut its reserves from upwards of 1.8 million ounces to closer to one million.

A reserve downgrade had been expected, but its severity took most analysts by surprise, not least the number-crunchers at RFC Ambrian who had tipped Avocet as their top performing stock in their review of the junior and mid-tier gold space released in August last year.

In those halcyon days, Avocet was trading at 91p, and RFC Ambrian set a target of 134p, arguing that there was a "turnaround around the corner". Admittedly that was some way lower than the 277p target RFC Ambrian had set a year earlier, but then the entire gold operation at Inata hadn't gone belly up at that stage. It did that in June 2012, when problems with grades, scheduling, processing and recoveries all combined to cut the share price in half, to 75p.

And on the latest news though the shares have halved again, from 51p to 24.5p. Dismal for existing Avocet shareholders, but is it now a recovery play? Is the "turnaround" really "around the corner" this time? Not yet, because with lower production on the cards the company finds its hedging arrangements suddenly over-burdensome, and needs to raise equity to buy out its positions.

Even so, at around 100,000 ounces per year Avocet still has significant gold production, and if it can get costs down, the shares will eventually bounce. The crux will be the gold price, which many pundits think is likely to fall further. If it does, companies like Avocet will struggle to survive – and it was on that sentiment that gold companies on the Australian market underperformed the mining sector last week, as we reported on in our Australian That Was The Week That Was.

On the other hand, recent reports out of China say that China's gold demand is likely to beat supply by 2015, and Minesite's own estimation is that the gold price will go through US$2,000 within the next 12 months on global political uncertainty and a growing lack of faith in fiat currency. If so, it will allow companies like Avocet a last period of grace to get their house in order.

But high gold won't last forever, which is why a swathe of fund managers have said in recent months that gold producers, and especially the juniors, need to shape up or die. A near-death experience at US$1,600 gold would be fatal at US$1,000.

Whatever happens, you can follow all the twists and turns here on Minesite.

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Latest News

News: February 17, 2013

That Was The Week That Was … In London

News: February 15, 2013

That Was The Week That Was … In Canada

Press releases

February 18, 2013 - Condor Gold Plc Issue of Equity 
February 18, 2013 - Sirius Minerals Plc York Potash signs KEYTRADE AG marketing...
February 18, 2013 - Stellar Diamonds Plc Change of Adviser 
February 18, 2013 - Sunrise Resources Plc Cue Diamond Project Update 
February 18, 2013 - Evolution Mining Half Year Financial Results Conference Call
February 18, 2013 - Northland Resources S.A. Notice to Attend the Creditors' Meeting...
February 18, 2013 - Kryso Resources Plc UPDATE ON CONSTRUCTION OF PAKRUT GOLD PROJECT
February 18, 2013 - Toledo Mining Corp Plc Mandatory Cash Offer for Toledo 
February 18, 2013 - Vatukoula Gold Mines plc High Grade Drilling Intersections - Philip...
February 18, 2013 - Toledo Mining Corp Plc Toledo Mining Corporation PLC : Disposal...
February 18, 2013 - EMED Mining EMED Mining completed an updated Technical...
February 18, 2013 - Vatukoula Gold Mines plc High Grade Drilling Intersections - Philip...
February 15, 2013 - Gold Bullion Development Corp Gold Bullion Appoints New CFO for Castle...
February 15, 2013 - Perseus Mining Ltd Consolidated Interim Financial Statements...
February 15, 2013 - Forum Uranium Corp Forum Increases Private Placement
February 15, 2013 - Anglesey Mining Plc MS and LIM third quarter results 
February 15, 2013 - Thor Mining Plc New A$1 Million Funding Facility 
February 15, 2013 - Pan African Resources PLC Acquisition of Evander becomes unconditional 
February 15, 2013 - SolGold Plc Notice Received Requisitioning Shareholder...
February 14, 2013 - Kibo Mining Plc Invitation from Tanzanian Government to...
February 14, 2013 - Mwana Africa plc Freda Rebecca Gold Mine Incident 
February 14, 2013 - Patagonia Gold Price Monitoring Extension
February 14, 2013 - Minco Plc Drilling Update 
February 14, 2013 - African Consolidated Resources Plc Holding(s) in Company 
February 14, 2013 - UMC Energy PLC Prospective Structures Identified 
February 14, 2013 - Eastern Platinum Ltd Operations Resume At Zandfontein
February 14, 2013 - Stratex International Plc Afar JV Update
February 14, 2013 - Silver Mines Ltd Placement Announcement and Section 708 (A)...
February 14, 2013 - Centaurus Metals Limited Centaurus Awards Management Support...
February 14, 2013 - First Majestic Silver Corp First Majestic Considering Superior Offer...
February 14, 2013 - Gold Bullion Development Corp Summary of metallurgical tests performed...
February 14, 2013 - Scotgold Resources Ltd Holding(s) in Company 
February 13, 2013 - Kootenay Silver Inc. Kootenay Silver Announces Kristian...
February 13, 2013 - Regency Mines Plc Direct Nickel Limited Update
February 13, 2013 - Anglesey Mining Plc LIM completes C$29 million equity financing
February 13, 2013 - Anglo Pacific Group Plc Preliminary Results 2012 
February 13, 2013 - Mincor Resources NL Appendix 4D and Half Year Financial Report
February 13, 2013 - Perseus Mining Ltd Conference Call Half Year Results and...
February 13, 2013 - Mincor Resources NL NIU: Kubuna Exploration Licence
February 13, 2013 - Pan African Resources PLC Interim Results for the six months ended...
February 13, 2013 - Richland Resources Ltd Sorting house break-in - insurance...
February 13, 2013 - Minera IRL Ltd Successful Completion of Exploration Drive 
February 13, 2013 - Mwana Africa plc Trojan Nickel Mine Update 
February 13, 2013 - West African Minerals... Gravity survey indicates large scale...
February 13, 2013 - Sirius Minerals Plc Project Update
February 13, 2013 - Anglo Pacific Group Plc Preliminary Results 2012 
February 12, 2013 - ECR Minerals Plc COMPLETION OF GOLD CREST SALE 
February 12, 2013 - Kingsrose Mining Limited Credit Suisse Provides US$15m Financing...
February 12, 2013 - Latin Resources Limited Managing Director speaks on Webcast
February 12, 2013 - Botswana Diamonds Plc New Broker in Botswana Appointed 
February 12, 2013 - Northland Resources S.A. Northland Files for Reconstruction for Two...
February 12, 2013 - Tertiary Minerals Plc MB Project Tonnage Grade Estimate 
February 12, 2013 - London Mining Plc SETTLEMENT OF LITIGATION WITH WITS BASIN
February 11, 2013 - Northland Resources S.A. Northland Announces New Release Date For...
February 11, 2013 - Kibo Mining Plc Change in UK Broking Arrangements
February 11, 2013 - Stratex International Plc Holding(s) in Company
February 11, 2013 - Continental Coal Ltd Updated Corporate Brochure for Investor...
February 11, 2013 - Stratex International Plc Holding(s) in Company 
February 11, 2013 - Richland Resources Ltd Q4 Operational and Sales Update 
February 11, 2013 - Alkane Resources Ltd Tomingley Mining Lease Granted
February 11, 2013 - Kirkland Lake Gold Inc Kirkland Lake Gold Announces Third Quarter...

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