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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring RBS, British Airways and National Express

From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 28th February 2013

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The Markets

UK consumer confidence remained low but steady in February according to research group GfK NOP. GfK's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remained flat at -26 in February (a reading above 0 indicates optimism and vice versa) after improving by 3 points in January. The report also revealed that the personal finances index - a measure of optimism in the state of personal finances in the UK - rose by 2 points to -5 which is the highest level since May 2011. Nick Moon, managing director of social research at GfK commented, "Consumers may be regaining their breath before moving on to a new base camp in the ascent towards the -9 that is the overall average of the index across its almost 40-year life."

Inflation in the Eurozone slid back towards the European Central Bank's medium-term target of "close to but below 2%" in January, easing to 2% from 2.2% according to statistics agency Eurostat. The drop takes inflation to its lowest level since November 2010 when inflation was recorded at 1.9%. The lowest rates were observed in Greece (0%) and Portugal (0.4%) as pricing pressure remained subdued due to the poor health of the underlying economies.

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), the 81% government controlled bank, reported a pre-tax loss of 5.17 billion pounds for 2012, its fifth annual loss since it was rescued by government in 2008. The bank has recently set aside money to cover PPI mis-selling and the mis-selling of interest rate swaps. However, the bulk of the loss came from a 4.6 billion pounds accounting charge for changes in the value of its own credit. The bank also revealed that it plans to sell some of its US businesses in around 2 years time in a move which was welcomed by Chancellor George Osborne who said, "I have been very clear that I want to see RBS as a British-based bank, focused on serving British businesses and consumers, with a smaller international investment bank to support that activity, rather than to rival it."



At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 12.71 points at 14,088.08 and the Nasdaq grew by 10.09 points to 2,751.35.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 34.93 points at 6,360.81; the FTSE 250 finished 78.53 points up at 13,704.02; the FTSE All-Share gained 18.31 points to 3,349.39; and the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 0.51 points to 740.61.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on video search engine Blinkx (BLNX) with a 125p target price. The broker believes the company is in a prime position to capitalise on the continued sharp rise in online advertisement spend, boosted by the growth of smartphones and tablets. Furthermore, the broker noted that, despite the recent share price rally, Blinkx still trades at a material discount to peers such as Google, Yahoo, and Millennial Media. The shares remained flat at 91.5p.

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation on broadcaster ITV (ITV) increasing its target price by 40p to 180p. The broker is impressed with yesterday's full year results, which revealed that profits from the studio and interactive business were ahead of market expectations. In addition, the broker feels that the growth of the operating margin to 24% is indicative of strong cost control and the emerging profitability of less mature revenue streams; traits which bode well for the long-term future of the group. The shares climbed by 5.2p to 124.2p..

Shore Capital re-iterated its "sell" stance on insurers Direct Line (DLG) despite conceding that the group is making progress with pricing, claims and costs. The broker has fears over the implications of the on-going Competition Commission investigation into the UK personal motor market, being particularly cautious on the sustainability of margins for the group. This is despite the insurance group insisting that any regulations which come into play will have a "net neutral" impact in the medium-term. The shares jumped to 0.5p to 211p.

Blue-Chips

British Airways and Iberia owner International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) posted an operating loss of 68 million euros (58 million pounds) for 2012 compared to a 485 million euros (420 million pounds) profit in 2011. The deteriorating performance was driven by a 20% higher fuel bill and increased competition from low-cost airlines and high speed trains. However, if the restructuring costs at Iberia are included the loss stands at 613 million euros (529 million pounds). Opinion amongst analysts, who felt the loss for the period was going to be worse, remains split, with the likes of Deutsche Bank and Oriel Securities issuing "buy" recommendations, while Liberium Capital and Espirito Santo Execution stick with "sell". The shares gained 17.5p to 239.2p.

British American Tobacco (BATS), the world's second largest cigarette maker, posted a 15% increase in operational profit to 5.4 billion pounds, despite a 1.6% fall in volumes due to "industry contractions", for 2012. Over 60% of its profit came from developing markets which offset declining smoking levels in Western Europe and North America as governments increase initiatives to fight concerns over the long-term health costs of smoking. The shares rose by 18.5p to 3,434,5p.

Outsourcing giant Capita (CPI) announced a 10% increase in reported pre-tax profits to 290 million pounds for 2012 driven by a record year of contract wins. The group won 4 billion pounds worth of new work during the year, double the 2 billion pounds worth of work it acquired in 2011. In its outlook the group stressed that good opportunities lay ahead in defence, health, justice and emergency services as departments are under pressure to reduce cost while maintaining frontline services. The shares were up by 18.5p at 3,434.5p.

Mid Caps

Recruitment company Hays (HAS) reported a 4% decline in fees to 360.3 million pounds during the 6 months ended 31st December 2012 and a 6% slide in pre-tax profits to 56.7 million pounds as a result. The group demonstrated good growth in Germany and Canada, while markets in Australia and France declined over the period, with the UK business returning to profit after a substantial cut in costs. The shares increased by 2.1p to 98.15p.

Coach operator National Express (NEX) reported a 9% decline in pre-tax profits to 164.1 million pounds on a 18% fall in revenues to 1.8 billion pounds for 2012. The fall in performance was driven by a decline in elderly coach passengers in Britain due to the loss of a government concession programme. On a positive note, the group's Spanish arm, ALSA, grew revenues by 4% despite the gloomy economic backdrop as it acquired new intercity bus routes. The shares climbed by 24.7p to 220p.

Engineering group Atkins (ATK) has agreed to sell its UK highway services business to SKANSA UK for a cash consideration of 16 million pounds, potentially rising to 18 million pounds depending on the future performance of the business. The business in question employs approximately 1,200 people and generated 80 million pounds in revenues in the six months ended 31st September 2012. The shares slipped by 9p to 869p.

Small Caps & AIM

IT services provider to the healthcare market Instem (INS) revealed that the US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences has agreed to purchase its Provantis preclinical software suite to support national toxicology program studies. Revenue generated from the 10 year contract is expected to be in the region of between $6.2 million and $7.6 million depending on performance. The firm was keen to stress that the contract includes the option to expand to a larger number of additional sites on the same terms which would significantly increase revenues. The shares soared by 29p to 126.5p.

Angle (AGL), the medical technology company, announced the launch of its Parsotix non-invasive cancer diagnostic product to the market. At present the company is placing machines on loan with a number of "key users" around the world in order to obtain data which can then be used to support regulatory submissions for approval by the Food and Drug Administration. The shares swelled by 8p to 65p.

Coal mining outfit Coal of Africa (CZA) announced the suspension of rail links from its mines in South Africa to the port of Malota due to a derailment of a train earlier in the month. The group stressed that it will do everything in its power to mitigate the commercial and operational impact of the rail suspension and said that production at its Mooiplats and Woestalleen operations would continue until stockpile capacity was exhausted. The shares slid by 1.5p to 16p.

Waterlogic (WTL), the manufacturer of drinking water dispensation systems, announced that it has acquired Water Filters Ltd which trades as Aqua Cure Scotland, a water purification specialist. The acquisition of Aqua Cure is in line with the group's strategy of gaining direct access to the Scottish market. For the full year ended 30th June 2012, Aqua Care Scotland generated an EBITDA of $87,000 (57,000 pounds). The shares lost 1p to 186.5p.

Baker Finsbury Food Group (FIF) declared that it has sold its Free From business for 21 million pounds to Genus Foods Limited as it looks to focus on its core cake and bread businesses. The Free From business is comprised of two separate subsidiaries, Livell Limited and United Bakeries and accounts in total for 14% of group revenues. Finsbury went on to stress that it will continue to search out the right bolt on acquisitions to further develop its licensed brand portfolio. The shares surged by 7.5p to 51p.

Logistics group Hargreaves Services (HSP) announced a pre-tax loss of 9.1 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th November 2012, down from a 13.1 million profit in 2011, despite a 19.3% increase in revenues to 385.1 million pounds over the period. The results were negatively impacted by the mothballing of the Maltby mine in South Yorkshire, and a fraud investigation at its Belgium operations. The shares were up by 30.5p at 854.5p

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