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Monday, February 18, 2013

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Vodafone, Crest Nicholson and Toledo Mining


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 18th February 2013

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Competition

Congratulations to Alan Carroll whose caption (below) has been voted the funniest and has won the UK-Analyst Friday competition. Look out for another contest at the end of the week.

"The nursery regrets to inform you that traces of ‘Hobby’ the school’s pony have been found in toddlers dinners..."

The Markets

David Cameron arrived in India for the start of a visit in which the Prime Minister hopes to convince the Indian government to open up its economy to British firms. Cameron's visit comes just days after a similar visit by French President, Francois Hollande, as European countries fight to do business in the fast-growing emerging economy. The Prime Minster argued, "Britain is an open economy and we encourage that investment, I think, in return, we should be having a conversation about opening up the Indian economy, making it easier to do business here, allowing insurance and banking companies to do more foreign direct investment."

Staying in Asia, Thailand's economy grew at a rate above expectations in the last three months of 2012 as the country continued to recover from the previous year's devastating floods. The country's Q4 GDP surged by 18.9% on the previous year, a rate well above the average analyst forecast of around 15%. Floods in 2011 compounded a slowdown in demand from key global markets in terms of Thailand's exports, a key driver of growth in the country. Rahul Bajoria, Economist at Barclays Capital, said, "Overall the Thailand economy is in pretty good shape right now."

According to Lars Seier Christensen, CEO of Danish group Saxo Bank, the Euro currency is set to fail because the continent hasn't supported it with a fiscal union. This is despite the Euro's 8.3% gain versus the US dollar in the past 6 months, the highest level the currency has traded at since November 2011. However, although the Euro has strengthened, the economies of Italy, Germany and France all shrank in the last 3 months of 2012, fuelling fears that the rise is poorly founded. Christensen warned, "The whole thing is doomed, right now we're in one those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn't at all."

In London the FTSE 100 decreased by 10.07 points to 6,318.19; the FTSE 250 finished 59.36 points down at 13,498.99; the FTSE All-Share slipped 6.30 points to 3,322.72; and the FTSE AIM Index crept up by 0.76 points to 751.46.

The U.S financial markets were closed for Presidents' Day.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation on self storage provider Lok'nStore (LOK) with a target price of 137p. The broker expects the current trend of increasing levels of occupancy to continue and believes that the firm will build on a 12.4% increase in move-ins since VAT imposition upon self storage - a trend which would inevitably improve the bottom line. The broker also cited the current 38% discount to NAV and the average 15-20% hike in competitor share prices since VAT imposition as further justification for its stance. The shares were up by 3p at 117.5p.

N+1 Singer upgraded its "hold" stance to "buy" on electrical retailer Darty (DRTY), with a target price of 60p. The broker does acknowledge that the outlook remains uncertain for the company, with low visibility surrounding near-term profitability, but has faith in the strategic actions being implemented by management. On this basis the broker has downgraded its target price by 9% to 60p but maintains the company has a sound 3 year investment case. The shares gained 0.75p to 46.75p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on industrial materials group Low and Bonar (LWB) with a target price of 81p. The broker was impressed with the group's full year results for 2012 which came in marginally ahead of the broker's expectations in terms of pre-tax profits and net debt. Furthermore, Canaccord believes that these results are indicative of the strength of the group's underlying market niches, particularly given the sales reliance on the UK and Europe. The shares increased by 1.125p to 69.25p.

Blue-Chips

Telecommunications giant Vodafone (VOD) has entered into a partnership with BAE systems, the defence and aerospace firm, to provide advanced communications security products and services, initially for smartphones and tablets. The first initiative of the partnership will see the implementation of Vodafone's Mobile Threat Manager package - which monitors traffic across all networks in an attempt to avoid malicious attacks without affecting device performance. In addition, Vodafone was also announced as BAE's preferred supplier of mobile communications worldwide, excluding the US. The shares slipped by 1p to 166.80p.

Oil and gas giant BG Group (BG.) has commenced a new extended well test in the Sapinhoa North Area of its concession offshore Brazil. During the initial test phase, which is expected to last up to six months, the 3-BRSA-788-SPS well is expected to produce around 15,000 bopd. BG Group has a 30% interest in the well, with Petrobas and Repsol Sinopec Brazil also holding stakes. The news comes after investment banks Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse both retained their neutral stance on the shares earlier this year. BG Group shares jumped by 4.5p to 1,146.5p.


Mid Caps

Micro Focus (MCRO), the software specialist, announced that one of its subsidiaries has acquired the intellectual property, assets and certain liabilities associated with the Orbix, Orbacus and Artix Software product lines from Progress Software Corporation for a total consideration of $15 million (9.7 million pounds). In the financial year commencing 1st May 2013 Micro Focus predicts that the acquisition will generate $14 million (9.04 million pounds) in revenues and will significantly help to stabilise its Visibroker business in the process. The shares were down by 31.5p at 644p.

Housebuilder Crest Nicholson (CRST) began full dealings on the premium listing segment of the London Stock Exchange. The admission marks the biggest initial public offering so far in London this year. The shares closed at 261.25p, up significantly on the 220p IPO placing price. To read a full analysis of the Crest Nicholson IPO sign up for t1ps.com now.

Oil and gas exploration firm Salamander Energy (SMDR) revealed that four of its sixteen wells in its Bualuang Oil Field in the Gulf of Thailand have now reached production and are producing ahead of pre-drill production projections. In 2012, the average production rate from the Bualuang oil field was 7,200 bopd and the full year production rate in 2013 is forecast to be between 11,000 bopd and 14,000 bopd, representing a minimum of a 50% increase in year on year production. The shares inched up by 0.8p to 202.80p.

Small Caps & AIM

Toledo Mining Corporation (TMC), an investment holding firm with interests in privately owned nickel companies in the Philippines, has received a 50p per share offer from DMCI Mining Corporation. This follows DMCI Mining recently increasing its stake in Toledo to 37.7% after it bought out major shareholder Jason Cropper's 20.7% stake in the group. The terms of the offer value Toledo at approximately 24.9 million pounds. The shares soared by 17.5p to 48p.

Drug developers Phytopharm (PYM) announced that the Phase II trials of its Cogane product, a prospective treatment for patients with early stage Parkinsons disease, have suggested that the medication has no beneficial effects on patients' symptoms. The results exhibited no statistically significant effects or trends towards any improvement in patient condition. As a result management will now review the options of either pursuing the development of the drug further or abandoning anymore development of the product. The shares plummeted by 8.1p to 1.9p.

Sound technology company HiWave Technologies (HIW) announced that revenues for the three months ended 31st December 2012 were 200,000 pounds, well below management expectations. In addition, the group is currently engaged in a sale process but said it was unsure if it would be able to create any value for shareholders, even if it was able to dispose of all or parts of its business. The shares nose-dived by 0.5p to 0.2p.

Gold asset developer Vatukoula Gold Mines (VGM) revealed additional high grade drilling results from a drilling campaign at the company's Vatukoula gold mine in Fiji. The results include 53.14 grammes of gold per tonne over 1.29 metres, with one section reporting 264.47 grammes of gold per tonne over 0.23 metres. This comes as a further boost to the reputation of the site after the measured resources increased by 7% during the year ended August 2012. The shares gained 1.75p to 25.25p.

Developer of cancer-fighting drugs Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) has agreed in principle to make an acquisition of a company which has developed state of the art technology for treating cancerous tumours using relatively cost effective Proton Beam Therapy. The deal, which is still conditional on both parties completing due diligence, is set to be satisfied by the issue of new ordinary shares in the company. The shares were up by 0.08p at 0.98p.

Kryso Resources (KYS) admitted that construction of its underground mine at the Pakrut gold project in TajikIstan has fallen behind schedule and will now not be completed by March 2014 as it previously guided. Pakrut contains a JORC compliant estimated resource of 5 million ounces of gold and is situated in the lucrative Tien Shan gold belt, which covers Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and China. The shares fell by 3.75p to 30.625p.

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