Kumaresan Selvaraj pillai


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Monday, December 3, 2012

| 12.03.12 | JPMorgan CIO unit "a secret hedge fund"

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December 3, 2012
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Today's Top Stories
1. Short seller offers to pay for Olam credit rating
2. Cohen deposed by SEC earlier this year
3. Technical analysis reborn as "The Math of God"
4. JPMorgan CIO unit "a secret hedge fund"
5. Citigroup's chairman on the hot seat

Editor's Corner: Which financial deal is the worst in history?

Also Noted: Progress Software
Spotlight On... Hedge fund assets still above $2T
Analyst predicts Bank of America rally;Basel committee ponders rules delay; and much more...

News From the Fierce Network:
1. BNY Mellon's concrete Big Data plans
2. Dark pool auditing services may rise
3. Smartphones transforming mortgage app process


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Tuesday, December 11th, 11 am ET / 8 am PT

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Editor's Corner

Which financial deal is the worst in history?

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn


When it comes to the worst deal in history, a New York Times article sets up an interesting debate: Is it the AOL deal to buy Time Warner in 2000, or is it the Hewlett-Packard deal for Autonomy last year?

There's a strong case to be made for both when you look at the sheer destruction of value. HP paid $11.1 billion for the British software maker, and it wrote down recently a whopping $8.8 billion, generating massive headlines, as it accused the software maker of accounting irregularities. HP shares have fallen nearly 60 percent since the deal was announced.

As for AOL-Time Warner, at the time the deal was announced in January 2000, "the combined value of the two companies was more than $300 billion. By the time Gerald Levin announced that he was stepping down as chief executive of AOL Time Warner in December 2001, the value of the company was about $159 billion, down nearly 50 percent," the Times notes.

These are horrible deals and the debate is legitimate. But I think the Bank of America-Countrywide deal deserves some mention as perhaps the worst of all time. Bank of America bought Countrywide in 2008 for $4 billion, which then CEO Ken Lewis, whose career subsequently foundered, touted the transaction as a real coup for the bank. But since then, the costs have surged steadily.

As of now, the bank has been forced to write-off more than $40 billion, mainly in retail real estate, litigation and settlement costs with government authorities. The legal tab could rise even more, as there are tricky cases that may require more additions to reserves still working toward resolution. As for the stock price, in January of 2008, when the deal was announced, the stock hit $45 a share. Now it trades below $10 a share. You can't attribute all of that to the Countrywide deal, of course.

So what do you think? Perhaps we can all agree that it was the worst ever deal in the financial services industry and leave it at that.  -Jim

Read more about: deals, mergers
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Today's Top News

1. Short seller offers to pay for Olam credit rating

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Muddy Waters has struck again, this time against Singapore commodities trader Olam, which plunged in the wake of a negative report from the increasingly well-known research and trading outfit.

This time, Muddy Waters, led by Carson Block, has come forward with a new tactic. It has publicly offered to pay for Olam to have its debt rated by a credit rating company, in this case Standard & Poor's. The offer highlighted the fact that the company's debt currently is not rated by such a firm.

"Olam now has no good reason to avoid having its debt rated. Should it continue to refuse a rating, investors should wonder whether the company is worried that a rating would mortally wound it by making clear that the market has been underpricing its risk," wrote Muddy Waters in its report.

Some advocates of credit rating reform have suggested that having investors pay for credit rating services would be superior to the issuer-pays-for-their-own-ratings system that we have now. Certainly, it takes out the main conflict of interest. In this arena, Muddy Waters is on high moral ground, as Olam runs the risk of appearing as if it has something to hide if it doesn't agree.

Muddy Waters has issued a deadline of COB December 5 for Olam to agree to the offer. Olam is not likely to take the company up on its offer. Instead it has been playing up the fact that it was audited by Ernst & Young, which has said it stands by its audit. 

For more:
- here's a Deal Journal item

Related articles:
Commodity trader fights back against short-seller
 

Read more about: Short seller
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2. Cohen deposed by SEC earlier this year

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The Financial Times notes that Steven Cohen was deposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this year, where he delivered his first (and only) explanation for SAC's controversial trading in shares of Elan and Wyeth before the companies announced negative clinical drug trial results.

Cohen told investigators that he made the trades because he was simply no longer comfortable with the positions.

"Cohen's memory was otherwise vague and that he could recall few details of the content of a 20-minute phone conversation, held in 2008, with Mathew Martoma, the portfolio manager who allegedly told Mr Cohen he was not comfortable with the position," FT reported.

Martoma of course was recently arrested and charged with criminal insider trading. He was highly sought after as a witness against Cohen, but so far, he has refused. The FT notes that at least two other SAC employees were interviewed by the SEC. One was Phillipp Villhauer, Cohen's "head trader."

The next milestone in this saga will likely involve the SEC filing civil charges against the hedge fund firm and possible Cohen himself. Jail time will not be an issue, but it's quite possible that investors will start to trickle away. As for criminal charges, as of now, Martoma seems to be standing firm, though the chances of a long prison term may change his mind. He is free after posting a $5 million bond.

Cohen remains the Teflon Trader as of now. It's going to be hard to make criminal charges stick without Martoma or someone else.

For more:
- here's the article

Related articles:
Sink or swim at SAC Capital
The SEC may hit SAC Capital with civil charges
 

Read more about: SAC Capital, Criminal Charges
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3. Technical analysis reborn as "The Math of God"

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

You can be forgiven if you assumed that technical analysis was dead.

The sell-side has been cutting back in this area for years, some of the predictions fell flat, and much of the industry has trended toward rigorously quantitative approaches, driven by Ph.Ds in math and science, which seemed to make chart watchers look like tea leave readers.

But the Washington Post reports that a renaissance is underway among technical analysts, led by Tom DeMark, who has grounded his analysis in Fibonacci numbers the Golden Ratio. He has attracted a crowd of devotees, including hedge fund managers such as Steven Cohen of SAC Capital, Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman and others.

One of them was quoted as saying, "When I use DeMark's work, I feel like I'm wielding Thor's hammer." Another said that, "This mathematics is embedded in the structure of the universe. It is the language of God."

That might be going a bit overboard, but it's clear that DeMark has hit some sort of nerve, as have other technical analysts. The fact that the markets are so much more correlated, in the wake of the financial crisis, may have a lot to do with it. It seems like a new generation of technical leaders are emerging, to replace the old guard, which some see as somewhat discredited.

For more:
- here's the article                    

Read more about: technical analysis
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4. JPMorgan CIO unit "a secret hedge fund"

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

A few years ago, the notion came into vogue that Goldman Sachs was one giant hedge fund.

Company executives hated the concept, and I would have to agree that the Goldman Sachs in its entirety was far from a hedge fund. Still, it would be hard to deny that proprietary trading and trading more generally has come to dominate the company. Given the reliance on trading, it's easy to see why the description seemed to stick.

Perhaps the description is more apt when it comes to the JPMorgan Chase pre-London Whale implosion CIO unit. A new class action suit charges that the bank turned the ill-fated unit, which on paper was supposed to hedge against other risks held by the bank, into the equivalent of a hedge fund.

Finextra notes a class-action complain filed last week in New York that alleges JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon "secretly transformed the CIO from a risk management unit into a proprietary trading desk whose principal purpose was to engage in speculative, high-risk bets designed to generate profits."

The suit also claims that "JPMorgan senior management made a conscious, strategic decision to use the CIO for proprietary trading in pursuit of short-term profits."

The plaintiffs include the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, Ohio Public Employees Retirement System and the state of Oregon.

So what to make of this? One of the more interesting questions that has yet to be resolved is just what the disastrous trades were hedging  against. Some think they were legitimate economic hedges, but the view that that they were hedges in name only and meant to generate huge returns has proven persistent. The discovery process in this suit just might turn up some very interesting information.  

For more:
- here's the item

 

Read more about: London Whale, JPMorgan Chase
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5. Citigroup's chairman on the hot seat

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

For years, shareholders have been asking boards to step up and aggressively confront management on key performance and other issues.

In the case of Citigroup, critics of the management ostensibly got what they wanted when Chairman Michael O'Neill ousted then CEO Vikramn Pandit in a clumsy power play that earned lots of negative press for the board. O'Neill also hand-picked Pandit's successor, Michael Corbat.

While the CEO is place, it would appear that the real puppet master at the bank remains the chairman. Reuters puts it bluntly: "O'Neill, 66, is effectively running Citigroup."

That may be an overstatement, but you can bet that he has the upper hand in the always tricky chairman-CEO relationship. But is O'Neill qualified to run a global bank of the scale and complexity as Citigroup? Citigroup once considered O'Neill as a candidate to run the bank but ultimately decided that he didn't have right experience, as he had only managed small banks in the past. He was, however, deemed qualified to serve on the board, even as chairman.

"It remains far from certain that O'Neill can use the methods he has previously used to turn Citi around. It not only dwarfs Bank of Hawaii but is also seven times as large as BankAmerica was in 1997, when O'Neill was that bank's chief financial officer. Citigroup is also vastly more complicated and has been exiting businesses for years."

Can this work? The stock price over the next year or so will tell all. If the bank flounders, people will be second guessing a lot.

For more:
- here's the article

Related articles:
Citigroup's backroom drama
 

Read more about: CEO, chairman
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SPOTLIGHT ON... Hedge fund assets still above $2T

It's been a rocky year for the hedge fund industry, but as of now, assets under management remain historically high. Global hedge funds now oversee $2.2 trillion in assets, up from $2 trillion at the end of the 2011 and more than double what they invested for their wealthy clients in 2005, according to data from Hedge Fund Research. New commitments have been slow, just $31 billion this year, compared with $70.6 billion in 2011 and $194.5 billion in 2007. Article

Company News: 
> Analyst predicts Bank of America rally. Article
> Goldman Sachs execs exercise options. Article
> Janus quant exec steps down. Article
> Morgan Stanley: More banks deals coming. Article
> A look at Wells Fargo. Article
> Wells Fargo Securities gets new home. Article
Industry News:
> Smaller profits for banks in 2013. Article
> Money funds eye Eurozone banks. Article
> U.K. banks warned on capital. Article
Regulatory News:
> SEC settles insider trading charges with exec. Article
> Should banks hold more capital? Article
> Basel committee ponders rules delay. Article
And Finally…Retailers run from Groupon, others. Article


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Events


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> ABA Wealth Management and Trust Conference 2013 - March 3-5 - New Orleans, LA

Make uncertain times the best of times. At the ABA Wealth Management and Trust Conference, you’ll hear the latest in practice management to help you build your business despite a challenging market. Learn more at aba.com/WMT. To receive conference updates, click here.



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