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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Inside Commodities Thursday December 15 2011

Thomson Reuters
Inside Commodities
 

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2011

 
To download the full report (PDF document) please click here
 
  
 
 
REUTERS INSIDERS:
 
OPEC will make room for Libya output - Al-Badri
OPEC will make room for rising Libyan output within a newly agreed production cap of 30mln barrels per day, says cartel Secretary General Abdullah Al-Badri.
  

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Nigeria oil minister expects dip in oil price
Diezani Alison-Madueke, Nigerian minister of petroleum resources expects the price of oil to drop slightly in the coming months as Libya returns to the market.
  

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Live: Opec news conference
Live news conference following the Opec meeting of oil ministers in Vienna.
  

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COLUMN:
 
Fracking revolution goes global: John Kemp
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-- 
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Forget OPEC. By far the most important oil news today is that Saudi Aramco  and China's giant Sinopec  and CNOOC  energy firms are each in talks to buy up to a 30 percent stake in U.S. oil and gas services company Frac Tech International. 
Frac Tech's expertise in hydraulic fracturing makes it a major player in the fast-growing part of the oil and gas industry, which is set to radically alter the world's energy supply picture in the next decade.
  
OPEC bows to Saudi as oil swing producer-Campbell
-- Robert Campbell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. -- 
NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on a supply target on Wednesday but the real deal was acquiescence to Saudi Arabia's right to do as it pleases in oil policy. 
With the global economy facing an uncertain path and diplomatic tensions between Iran and the West heating up again, Saudi Arabia has whipped OPEC back into line after a six-month rebellion.
 
Cracking aluminium's enigma code: Andy Home
--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own-- 
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Almost 300,000 tonnes of aluminium has surged into the London Metal Exchange warehousing system in the past four days. Registered tonnage is now at an all-time high of 4,826,275 tonnes. 
Even by the standards of the LME aluminium market, this is a lot of metal, and the LME "Street" is expecting still more.
 
Goldman's oil bulls seize forecasting crown: John Kemp
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-- 
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - For the second year running, analysts at Goldman Sachs are among the most bullish for oil prices over the next 12 months. 
In 2011, the bank's analysts took a risk by making a bold call on prices -- and won big when prices soared. Rivals and customers will be watching closely to see if its call for continued price rises in 2012 proves equally prescient.
 
E.U. debt fight a threat to world crop exports: Maguire
-- Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. To get his real-time views on the market, please join the Global Ags Forum. -- 
CHICAGO, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The spiraling debt worries plaguing European politicians in recent months is starting to have an impact on U.S. agricultural trade and could well restrict U.S. and global crop shipments throughout much of 2012. 
Europe is the World's second largest importer of soybeans  and wheat, and a major importer of corn, beef and many other  agricultural products, and so represents a significant trading  partner for U.S. crop and food producers. However, the recent  strangling of credit in the region has served to stifle trade  finance there to the degree that U.S. agricultural shipments to  the E.U. have already dropped off sharply in recent weeks and  pose a notable risk to the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade  in 2012.
 
India fuel demand growth headed lower: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--     
SINGAPORE, Dec 14 (Reuters) - India's oil-product demand appears poised for a sharp decline as the economy is battered by slowing industrial growth, a weakening currency and fiscal constraints on the government. 
Fuel demand rose 4.1 percent in the first 10 months of 2011 from the same period a year earlier, running ahead of the International Energy Agency's forecast for an increase of 3.6 percent for the whole year.
 
 
ENERGY:
 
Brent little changed at $105 after biggest drop since Sept
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures were little changed at $105, after plunging the most in nearly three months in the previous session after Italy's borrowing costs skyrocketed and renewed fears about the euro zone's debt crisis. 
"There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Europe and that is worrying investors," said Ken Hasegawa, commodity derivatives manager at Newedge Brokerage in Tokyo. "Although there was an agreement, a lot of countries are involved and they need to get the deal cleared," he said, referring to last week's European summit.

Diesel runs dry in southern China gas stations - report
Dec 15 (Reuters) - Widespread diesel shortages are hitting southern China, with many filling stations posting "no diesel" signs ahead of high seasonal demand, the China Review News reported on its website. 
The newspaper reported long queues at filling stations along the expressway linking Beijing and Hong Kong, while in the southeastern province of Zhejiang, a line of trucks awaiting fuel at a gas station stretched for 2 km.
 
ENN Energy shares tumble as China Gas rejects bid
HONG KONG, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Shares of Chinese city piped gas distributor ENN Energy  fell nearly 6 percent on Thursday as analysts expect it to raise its joint $2.2 billion offer with Sinopec Corp  for industry counterpart China Gas Holdings . 
China Gas on Wednesday night rejected the unsolicited cash bid from state-run oil and gas giant Sinopec and ENN Energy, saying it failed to reflect the fundamental value of the company.
 
S.Korea Nov LNG imports drop 34.5 pct y/y after stock build
SEOUL, Dec 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) dropped 34.5 percent in November from a year ago, as the world's second-largest buyer reduced volumes after building winter inventories in September and October, customs data showed on Thursday. 
South Korea imported 2.32 million tonnes in November, down from 3.54 million tonnes a year earlier, Korea Customs Service data showed.
 
Chevron, Transocean in $11 bln Brazil oil suit
RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Brazilian prosecutors sued Chevron Corp , the No. 2 U.S. oil company, and top offshore oil rig operator Transocean Ltd   for 20 billion reais ($10.6 billion) over their alleged roles in a November oil spill near Rio de Janeiro. 
The civil suit filed by federal prosecutors in Rio de Janeiro state also seeks to suspend the companies from operating in Brazil, the prosecutor's office said in a statement on its website on Wednesday, a move that could halt operations of the 10 Transocean offshore drilling rigs operating in the country.
 
Mexico to open tender for 8.1 mln tonnes of coal
Dec 14 (Reuters) - Mexico's Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) will open a tender on Thursday to acquire 8.1 million tonnes of coal to cover energy needs at one of its main thermoelectric plants. 
The tender will cover 80 percent of coal needed at the CFE's Petacalco plant in the southwestern Mexican state of Guerrero for 2013 as well as 50 percent needed for 2014, the CFE said in a statement said on Wednesday.
 
 
AGRICULTURE:

 

Corn, soy struggle on European debt woes; soy firms
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn was little changed after sliding to a nine-month low in the last session, while the benchmark wheat languished at contract lows as concerns over Europe's worsening debt crisis continued to plague the global markets. 
"Grains and oilseeds are not in a Christmas mood, it's all because of the macro economic situation," said Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "Buyers are seeing some bargain hunting in soybeans near the psychological support level of $11 a bushel."

Vietnam may cut 2012 rice exports to 6.5 mln T-report
HANOI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Vietnam may cut its 2012 rice exports to 6.5 million tonnes after shipping a record volume of 7.2 million tonnes this year, and prices could fall on ample supply, a state-run newspaper quoted an Agriculture Ministry official on Thursday as saying.    
Thanks to high value of the rice sales in 2011, farmers have been expanding the area of low-quality varieties, Nguyen Tri Ngoc, head of the ministry's Crops Department was quoted by the Vietnam Economic Times newspaper as saying.
 
Italy 9-mth soft wheat, maize imports up-Anacer
MILAN, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Imports of soft wheat into Italy, a major grain buyer in Europe, jumped 13.4 percent year on year and maize imports surged 38.3 percent in the first nine months of 2011, Italian cereals body Anacer said on Wednesday. 
Soft wheat imports rose to 4,027,945 tonnes in the January-September period from 3,552,051 tonnes in the same period of 2010. Maize imports rose to 1,918,962 tonnes from 1,387,358, Anacer said in a statement.
 
Colombia coffee output falls 13.7 pct in Nov -Growers
BOGOTA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee output fell for the eighth straight month in November, dropping 13.7 percent from a year ago due to heavy rains that limited flowering, the coffee growers federation said on Wednesday. 
The world's third biggest exporter after Brazil and Vietnam has seen output drop since 2009 and struggled to regain historical production levels because of bad weather and a renovation program to replace aging trees.
 
 
BASE METALS:

 

Shanghai copper, zinc fall on Europe debt fears
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Copper prices in Shanghai fell for a sixth day, tracking losses in most commodities overnight, after Italy's borrowing costs spiked and deepened fears about the euro zone debt crisis. 
"Markets are frustrated and disappointed, waiting for a road map on the resolution of the two-year-old debt crisis," said Ong Yi Ling, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Wisconsin debates law to speed mining permits
MILWAUKEE, Dec 14 (Reuters) - A state measure to speed up the regulatory process for iron mines was met on Wednesday with a mix of support for the jobs a planned northern Wisconsin mine could create and concerns about its potential impact. 
An environmental group also questioned whether the mining bill as proposed would conflict with the Great Lakes Compact, an agreement between the eight Great Lakes states on economic and environmental issues.
 
Top Brazil iron ore state to tax mining from Jan
Dec 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's Para state, home to the country's largest iron ore mine, will impose a 6.45 reais-per-tonne ($3.45) tax on iron ore, likely pushing up the cost of ore produced there by Brazilian mining giant Vale . 
Vale is the world's largest iron ore exporter and the Carajas mine it operates in Para is the source of nearly 10 percent of all world exports. At today's exchange rate and spot iron ore price, the tax could add about 2 percent to the price of a tonne of the mineral.
 
Freeport signs deal to end Indonesia mine strike
JAKARTA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc  expects full operations at its Indonesia mine to resume by early 2012 after reaching a pay deal on Wednesday to end a three-month strike that paralysed output at the world's second-biggest copper deposit. 
The deal, which includes a pay raise of 37 percent over two years for workers, ends Indonesia's longest-running industrial dispute and was achieved as pressure grew to find an agreement before Christmas.
 
Antofagasta approves $1.3 bln copper project
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Chilean miner Antofagasta  has approved the development of its $1.3 billion Antucoya copper project, and sold a 30 percent stake to Japanese trading house and long-time partner Marubeni  to help shoulder the burden of rising costs. 
Marubeni, one of several Japanese trading houses vying for supplies of physical copper in Chile, will pay $350 million for its stake and commit to funding its pro rata share of construction and development costs as the project evolves.
 
Nickel premiums eye Chinese demand next year 
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Nickel premiums in Europe could see a recovery early next year say some traders and producers who expect recently eased bank reserve requirements in China to help spur demand for raw materials.  
"The Chinese government has just eased the lending regulations for its banks so we could see a bit of a pick-up in January if we stay at these levels," a source at a nickel producer said.
 
 
PRECIOUS METALS:
 
Gold steady after carnage, Europe trouble eyed
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Spot gold wallowed near a 2-1/2-month low after dropping 3.5 percent in the previous session, as investors remained nervous about the euro zone debt crisis amid the year-end rush to liquidate positions. 
"It's not only because of the stronger dollar, the year-end fund redemption and margin call demand from other markets also contributed to the sell-off," said a Shanghai-based trader.

India's Rajesh Exports to import more gold for retail thrust
MUMBAI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - India's Rajesh Exports , the world's biggest jewellery maker, expects to raise gold imports 17 percent next year to power its renewed thrust in the competitive and fragmented local jewellery market as a cushion against a volatile export market, its chairman said on Wednesday. 
"The profitability in exports is always lower due to bulk business, and the profitability on retail is higher. The idea is to increase our profitability on our revenues," said Rajesh Mehta, chairman of Rajesh Exports.
 
 
GLOBAL MARKETS:

 

Europe debt woes prompt year-end flight from risk
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell into bear market territory for the year and commodities and the euro nursed stinging losses, after fears that Europe's debt crisis is still worsening prompted investors to dump riskier assets and huddle in the safety of the dollar and Treasuries. 
"We're quite bearish about the world at the moment," said Damien Boey, equity strategist at Credit Suisse in Sydney. "You're looking at basically the three major economies in the world causing problems."
 
 
 
CHART OF THE DAY:
 

SPOT GOLD'S BULL TREND TESTED AS MAJOR SUPPORT GIVES WAY, NEXT TARGET LOOMS

 
BEYOND THE HEADLINES:
 
Syrian oil sanctions won't work-Gulfsands
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Sanctions on Syria's oil sector are squeezing the country in the short term but production and exports are likely to resume once Syrian oil companies find new Asian partners to buy their oil, a Gulfsands executive told Reuters. 
Gulfsands , which sources over 90 percent of its output from Syria, has shut down production there along with oil major Royal Dutch Shell  and Canada's Suncor Energy  due to the latest set of EU sanctions.
 
Rising prices main clue to Iran sanctions impact
TEHRAN, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Tehran does not look like a city under siege. 
Its shops and markets are full of goods and customers; signs that international sanctions are ravaging Iran's economy are hard to detect.
  
 
Inside Commodities
 

EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY (GMT)
 
FRANCE MARKIT MFG FLASH PMI NOV 2011 (0800)
 
GERMANY MARKIT MFG FLASH PMI DEC 2011 (0830)
 
EZ INFLATION, FINAL YY NOV 2011 (1000)
 
U.S. CORE PPI MM, SA NOV (1330)
 
U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MM NOV (1415)
 
U.S. EIA NATURAL GAS STOCKS WEEKLY (1530)
 
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