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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Inside Commodities Friday December 23 2011

Thomson Reuters
Inside Commodities
 

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2011

 
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COLUMN:
 
Bakken by the numbers: John Kemp
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The magnitude of North Dakota's oil revolution is hard for outsiders to grasp. Superlatives fail to convey the speed and scale of the transformation and its impact on the economy of the state. 
The fracking boom is upending the traditional petroleum geography of the United States. On current trends, North Dakota will overtake California as the third-largest oil-producer in the United States by the end of Q1 2012. Output is likely to exceed production from Alaska by the end of 2012 or early 2013. Only Texas will be producing more crude.
 
Financiers blur China's copper import flows: Andy Home
--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own-- 
LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The surge in China's copper imports last month has been greeted with the predictable hurrahs from metal bulls, who haven't had a lot to cheer about recently. 
At almost 344,000 tonnes imports of refined copper were the second highest monthly total on record. 
 
January USDA report may reignite the corn market: Maguire
--Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. To get his real-time views on the market, please join the Global Ags Forum.-- 
CHICAGO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - With spot corn prices more than 20 percent off their early September highs and trading volumes stunted as investors and businesses wind down activity for the year, it is tempting to consider the corn market rally that saw prices more than double between mid-2010 and mid-2011 to be well and truly over 
But with emerging crops encountering challenging growing conditions in South America, and the USDA looking likely to make a further downward adjustment to the U.S. corn yield for the 2011/12 crop, the corn market may start 2012 with a bullish bang that could set it on course to remain the crop to watch as a new U.S. planting season gets underway in the spring.
 
 
ENERGY:
 
Brent steady above $107, supported by U.S. econ data
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Brent futures were steady above $107 a barrel, supported by fresh signs of a strengthening U.S. economy and the prospect of supply disruptions from the Middle East. 
"The highlight is the continuation of good data on the U.S. economy. China also seems to have managed to orchestrate a soft landing, which is supportive of oil prices," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst with OptionsXpress in Sydney. "The problem child is still Europe."

Vietnam 2012 coal output to rise, alumina expected
HANOI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Vietnam's top coal miner Vinacomin said on Friday it plans to produce 48.9 million tonnes of the fossil fuel next year, up 2.3 percent from 2011, adding that it will also start alumina production. 
The Hanoi-based group plans to step up production of coal, electricity and minerals next year and also aims to sell 45.5 million tonnes of coal, including both domestic sales and exports, Vinacomin said.
 
Spill delays Appomattox drilling "a few weeks" - Shell
HOUSTON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Drilling at Shell's  Appomattox prospect in the Gulf of Mexico will be delayed a few weeks to repair a drilling fluid booster line that leaked Sunday, a spokeswoman said Thursday. 
"Repairs could take a few weeks," Shell spokeswoman Kelly op de Weegh said. "We will not resume drilling until the repair is completed."
 
Major maintenance completed at Venezuela upgrader
CARACAS, Dec 22 (Reuters) - A major maintenance program has been completed at Venezuela's Petroanzoategui heavy crude upgrader, state oil company PDVSA said on Thursday. 
The 130,000 barrel per day (bpd) facility had been offline since September. In a statement, PDVSA said work was done on its vacuum, distillation and gas recovery units, among others.
 
US natgas rig count drops for 8th week, hits 23-month low
NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States slid by 16 this week to a 23-month low of 802, the 8th  straight weekly decline, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.  
Baker Hughes released the data a day early this week due to the upcoming Christmas holiday, and will do the same next week ahead of New Year's.
  
Valero says no impact from McKee power disruption
HOUSTON Dec 22 (Reuters) - Valero Energy Corp  said a Thursday morning partial power disruption was not expected to have a material impact on production at its 156,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. 
The refinery's main production units remained in operation during the loss of one of the main feeder lines to the refinery in the Texas panhandle between Oklahoma and New Mexico, Valero spokesman Bill Day said in a statement.
 
Rosneft ups investment 35 pct, upgrading refineries
MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's biggest oil producer Rosneft  expects to increase its total investment programme by around 35 percent to 480 billion roubles ($15.13 billion) in 2012 as it seeks to upgrade its refineries, the company said on Thursday. 
Major Russian oil companies need to upgrade their refining plants, many of which were commissioned as long ago as the 1930s, as the growing number of motorists outpaces supply. This  led to fuel shortages earlier this year and prompted the government to increase gasoline export duties.
 
 
AGRICULTURE:

 

Soy, corn dip on position squaring; LatAm weather eyed
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. soy fell half a percent as the market took a breather after six straight days of gains, while corn slipped from its highest in five weeks with investors squaring positions ahead of the year-end break. 
"We have seen fund buying in wheat, corn and soybeans in the last few days with dryness in South America the fundamental story floating around," said Brett Cooper, senior manager of markets at FCStone Australia.

U.S. approves Monsanto drought-tolerant GM corn
WASHINGTON/CHICAGO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Monsanto  won approval on Thursday to sell a genetically engineered variety of drought-resistant corn in the United States, raising hopes for increased production of the grain. 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture approved the variety after reviewing environmental and risk assessments, public comments and research data from the seed giant. The company has been developing the product for years in collaboration with German chemical firm BASF.
 
Richardson boosts W. Canada grain-handling space
Dec 22 (Reuters) - Richardson International, Canada's second-biggest grain handler after Viterra , said on Thursday that it is expanding storage capacity at Estevan, Saskatchewan. 
Richardson is building an additional 12,000-tonne storage facility to complement its existing grain elevator at Estevan, pushing total capacity to more than 24,000 tonnes.
 
Main Brazil, Argentine soy areas remain dry
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The main soy areas of Brazil and Argentina have not gotten enough rain in recent days to fully relieve fields that are baking under the southern hemisphere's summer sun, experts said Thursday. 
There has been no rain to speak of in Brazil's key south and center-west farming zones over the past three days. And the showers that have fallen in Argentina's soy belt have been too scattered and inconsistent to help parched plants.
  
German wheat sowings for 2012 crop up 2 pct
HAMBURG, Dec 22 (Reuters) - German winter wheat sowings for the summer 2012 crop have been expanded by 2.0 percent on the year to 3.233 million hectares, the German national statistics agency said on Thursday. 
Winter grain sowings of all types have been expanded by 3.2 percent on the year to 5.516 million hectares, the agency said in its first estimate of grain plantings for the 2012 harvest.
 
Philippines cuts 2011/12 sugar output forecast by 7 pct
MANILA, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Philippines lowered its estimate for 2011/12 raw sugar output by 7 percent to 2.24 million tonnes due to a decline in cane tonnage, the government said on Thursday. 
The Southeast Asian country, however, is keeping its target of exporting more than a fourth of its downscaled crop estimate.
 
Indonesia keeps Jan palm oil, cocoa export tax unchanged
JAKARTA, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has kept its export tax for crude palm oil at 15 percent for January, unchanged from the previous month, an industry ministry official said on Thursday. 
The government also left its January cocoa bean export tax at last month's level of 5 percent, said Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the Indonesian trade ministry.
 
 
BASE METALS:

 

Copper heads for weekly gain on rosier U.S. economic outlook
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 23 (Reuters) - London copper inched up as it headed for its first weekly gain in three after signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy boosted investor
hopes that demand for the industrial metal may pick up. 
"Indicators continue to suggest a potentially decent spring-up in economic growth in the fourth quarter," said Thomas Lam, a Singapore-based chief economist at OSK-DMG, a joint venture of Malaysian securities firm OSK Holdings Bhd. and Germany's Deutsche Bank AG.

Freeport, Cerro Verde Peru workers sign wage accord
LIMA, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Freeport-McMoRan said on Thursday it had reached a labor agreement with workers at its Cerro Verde mine in Peru, three weeks after laborers returned to work at the mine that produces 2 percent of the world's copper. 
Some 1,000 unionized workers ended a strike on Nov. 30 after a two-month walkout. The new agreement is valid until Aug. 31, 2014, according to a filing with Peru's securities regulator CONASEV.
 
 
STEEL NEWS:
 
Qatar Steel ups South Steel stake to 29 percent
DUBAI, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Qatar Steel, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Industries Qatar , increased its stake in South Steel of Saudi Arabia to 29.74 percent, the company said on Thursday, a nearly nine percentage point increase in ownership.  
A statement issued by the company said it will be involved in most aspects of South Steel's business, including operations, production and administration.
 
 
PRECIOUS METALS:
 
Gold edges up after upbeat US data; Europe weighs
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Gold inched higher in thin trade, taking cues from higher equities after upbeat U.S. economic data encouraged investors, while the persistent gloom hanging over the euro zone weighed on sentiment. 
"It's the year-end redemption," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures. "Even though gold suffered sharp declines recently, the price is still up more than 10 percent this year, so some investors are cashing in the profit."
 
 
GLOBAL MARKETS:

 

Asian shares up as U.S. data spurs year-end bounce
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged up, as signs of a strengthening economy in the United States encouraged a modest year-end rally in riskier assets. 
"The highlight is the continuation of good data on the U.S. economy. China also seems to have managed to orchestrate a soft landing...," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst with OptionsXpress in Sydney. "The problem child is still Europe."
 
 
CHART OF THE DAY:
 
LME COPPER - 24 HRS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
 
 
BEYOND THE HEADLINES:
 
Oil fund BlueGold loses focus, sinks deep into red
NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Respected commodities hedge fund BlueGold has veered from its energy-focused strategy, betting half its money on equities and other trades that are worrying investors as it turns in its first down year. 
The London-based fund, founded by former Vitol oil traders Dennis Crema and Pierre Andurand, is heading for a negative annual return, losing 34 percent through mid-December. Its asset base is down to $1.2 billion from $2 billion about a year ago.
 
For want of a seed, a corn crop at risk
CHICAGO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Illinois farmer Dave Ebert intends to drive nearly five hours early next year to buy thousands of pounds of a specialized, high-yield corn seed he needs to sow a bumper crop this spring. Dealers near his farm in Gilman are already sold out. 
In Iowa, the top corn-producing state, Bret Davis -- a farmer who also sells Monsanto's  DEKALB brand -- says he has not been able to get his hands on enough corn seed for his customers or himself. He'll rely on a mix of existing varieties in sowing his 1,600 acres, lacking the new, high-quality seeds.
  
 
Inside Commodities
 

EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY (GMT)
 
U.S. Quarterly Hog Inventory Q3 (2000)
 
U.S. CFTC commitment of traders data Weekly (2030)
 
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