To download the full report (PDF document) please click here COLUMN: Commodity index returns reconsidered: John Kemp
 --John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Commodity index investors must be starting to wonder if anything will ever go right. Just as roll losses on major products such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) have begun to diminish, an increase in predicted oil and gas supplies has blunted expectations of a super-cycle.
For most of the last six years, from 2005 to 2011, index investors have made money from rising spot prices, only to lose it on rolling their positions forward each month. Lead's defensive qualities back in focus: Andy Home
 --Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--
LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The narrative in the industrial metals markets has shifted dramatically over the last couple of months.
Previous exuberance was blown away by the vicious sell-off of late September and early October. With prices managing only a half-hearted claw-back from the lows and the macro picture darkening by the day, the collective focus has now shifted to each metal's defensive qualities. Asia oil buyers key as West raises Iran stakes: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - It's clear the United States and Europe are increasing the pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear programme by going after its oil trade in Asia. What's not clear is how this will play out.
Iran sends more than 1.4 million barrels of crude a day to Asia, about 60 percent of its total exports, and the planned U.S. sanctions target the payment for shipments. ENERGY: Brent falls below $103 on N.Korea news, euro zone jitters
SINGAPORE, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures fell below $103, as the prospect of rising tension on the Korean peninsula following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il pushed the U.S. dollar higher, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive.
"In light of uncertainties about what would follow after his death and what implications it would have on Asia, the initial reaction is to seek safe-haven in the dollar," said Takao Hattori, an analyst with Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.
Kenya buys 138,050 T oil products for Jan - trade
SINGAPORE, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Kenya has bought 138,050 tonnes of oil products through a spot tender for delivery in January, after already buying over 200,000 tonnes for the month, industry sources said on Monday.
Kenya's Ministry of Energy bought 25,000 tonnes of gasoline, 58,000 tonnes of gasoil, 25,000 tonnes of jet fuel and 30,050 tonnes of fuel oil from Addax Kenya, Galana Oil Kenya, Gulf Africa Petroleum Corp (Gapco) and Gulf Energy, they said.
China's Sinopec eyes 2.7 bln Repsol stake - FT
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Chinese oil firm Sinopec is eyeing a multibillion-euro stake in Spain's Repsol , as indebted Spanish builder Sacyr-Vallehermoso races to sell half of its shares in the oil company to pay back loans in order to avoid a possible collapse, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
Sacyr ran into debt trouble when it acquired 20 percent of oil group Repsol just before the global financial crisis and the collapse of Spain's property and construction bubble, and it must refinance a 4.9 billion euro ($6.39 billion) syndicated loan this year.
Petrochina's crude output reaches 2.15 mln bpd -paper
BEIJING, Dec 19 (Reuters) - PetroChina will have produced 107.53 million tonnes or 2.15 million barrels per day of crude oil this year, up 2.12 million tonnes from a year earlier, the China Petroleum Daily reported on Monday.
This was the second year that the increase in crude oil production by the top Chinese oil producer surpassed 2 million tonnes, according to the newspaper, which is run by parent China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
Exxon reports leak at Baytown refinery unit -filing
HOUSTON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp's 560,640 barrel per day (bpd) Baytown, Texas, refinery reported a leak in a naphtha line on a crude light ends unit on Saturday, according to a notice filed with state pollution regulators.
The leak was to be repaired with a clamp but did not impact production at the refinery, according to the notice filed with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
Protests spread in troubled Kazakh oil region
AKTAU, Kazakhstan, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Hundreds of demonstrators confronted riot police on Sunday as Kazakhstan's biggest protests in decades spread to the capital of a western oil region where 15 people have been killed in clashes.
The unrest in Mangistau region, triggered by the sacking of oil workers, is the worst to hit Kazakhstan in the 20 years since it gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union. AGRICULTURE: US soy, corn firm on LatAm weather concerns; wheat dips
SINGAPORE, Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. soy and corn rose, with soybeans gaining for a third straight session as dry weather in parts of agricultural powerhouses Brazil and Argentina raised concerns over supplies in the new year.
"There is support from dry weather in South America and there could be more upside for corn because of the tight global supplies," said Lynette Tan, an analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Canada court won't suspend Wheat Board law for now
WINNIPEG/OTTAWA Dec 16 (Reuters) - A Manitoba judge rejected a request on Friday by former directors of the Canadian Wheat Board to suspend immediately a new law ending the board's grain marketing monopoly.
While Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz celebrated the newly opened market for sales of western wheat and barley, the CWB's former chairman and farmer directors launched a court challenge.
Mexico seeks private involvement in grains hedging
MEXICO CITY Dec 16 (Reuters) - Mexico is looking to scale back subsidies for a government-backed grains hedging program and bring in more private financing to help farmers protect themselves from volatile swings in the commodities markets, the agriculture minister said on Friday.
The Mexican government provides a subsidy to local producers and commercial traders of mostly corn and wheat, but also other agricultural products like meat and cotton, to buy futures options at the top U.S. futures exchange Chicago.
Informa pegs U.S. corn area at most since 1944
CHICAGO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Memphis-based analytical firm Informa Economics on Friday forecast 2012 U.S. corn acreage at 94.389 million, the most since 1944 and above the firm's outlook in November for 94.0 million acres, trade sources said.
The area is well above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) corn plantings number of 91.9 million for 2011. BASE METALS: Copper falls on Europe's credit-rating downgrade worries
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Copper fell as fears over possible credit rating downgrades in Europe stoked worries the region may take longer to pull out of its two-year sovereign debt crisis, dragging down global economic growth.
"People don't believe in any bright spots in demand," said Henry Liu, the Hong Kong-based head of commodity research at Mirae Asset Securities.
Indonesia tin group fires chairman as infighting begins
PANGKAL PINANG, Indonesia, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Following the breakdown of a self-imposed tin export ban, political infighting has broken out in the Indonesia Tin Association (ITA), a smelter organisation established to create a unified front for producers.
Rudy Irawan, a chairman at the ITA, has been removed from the group of 28 smelters in the world's top refined tin exporting country, the association's President Hidayat Arsani said late on Sunday.
India's NALCO offers $38/T discount across products
BHUBANESHWAR, India, Dec 17 (Reuters) - India's state-run National Aluminium Co or NALCO has offered a discount of 2,000 rupees ($37.9) per tonne across all products in the domestic market.
It raised prices by 2,500 rupees a tonne early this month.
Freeport Indonesia workers delay start of work to next week-union
JAKARTA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Striking workers at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc's giant Indonesian mine delayed on Saturday until next week a plan to go back to work after a three-month strike because of technical issues, a union spokesman said.
The union representing miners at the Freeport's Grasberg mine struck a pay rise deal on Wednesday and agreed to end the strike which has crippled production in the world's second biggest copper mine. It agreed to start mobilising workers to work on Saturday.
Brazil mining state approves new tax on iron ore
RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest mining state, passed a new tax on iron and other ores, the second levy on the industry introduced this week by regional governments, that would add millions of dollars to the cost of its minerals.
State deputies approved late on Thursday a tax of 2.18 reais ($1.17) per tonne of ore extracted, nearly one percent of the current spot price of about $132 per tonne. The tax is also applicable on gold and copper as well as niobium, which is used to strengthen steel.
Sierra Leone plans hike in London Mining tax -draft
FREETOWN, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Sierra Leone plans to increase iron ore miner London Mining's tax rate by 19 percentage points to 25 percent, according to a draft agreement between the miner and government seen by Reuters on Friday.
The changes to London Mining's lease agreement are outlined in a renegotiated agreement which is still to be signed by Sierra Leone's president and approved by parliament. PRECIOUS METALS: Gold weakens after Fitch downgrade warning
SINGAPORE, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell as much as 0.8 percent, extending their biggest weekly loss in nearly three months last week, as rating agency Fitch's warning on downgrading France kept investors on the edge about the situation in Europe.
"In the short term we are seeing greater downside for gold," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures, adding that $1,550 would provide support in the near term.
Goldcorp gets construction permit for Cerro Negro
TORONTO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Goldcorp Inc said on Friday it has received the permits for its Cerro Negro project in Argentina and that full construction of the gold mine will begin immediately.
Goldcorp said its amended Environmental Impact Assessment was approved by Santa Cruz provincial authorities, allowing for immediate development and mining of three underground veins. The approval also allows the company to build a 4,000 tonne per day processing plant.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Stocks fall, dollar up after death of Kim Jong-il
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Asian stocks and U.S. index futures fell, with South Korean shares tumbling as much as 5 percent, and the dollar gained after North Korea announced the death of leader Kim Jong-il, raising fears of regional instability.
"The risk or fear that the death of Kim Jong-il will lead to provocation by North Korea is pressuring selling," said Hiroyuki Fukunaga, CEO of Investrust, in Tokyo. "Right now, there's going to be a sell-off as part of a risk-off." CHART OF THE DAY: SPOT GOLD - 3 MTHS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK BEYOND THE HEADLINES: Commodities prices to withstand Australian cyclones
PERTH/SYDNEY, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Australia's commodities sector is bracing for another active cyclone season, but unlike last year, prices of key exports such as iron ore, coal and sugar may show little reaction as Europe's economic turmoil and surplus crops pressure markets.
A barrage of cyclones and tropical storms during the last November-to-March "wet" season flooded collieries and halted iron ore mining while ripping apart sugar and wheat crops, driving up commodities prices around the world.
I.Coast to start forward cocoa sales in Jan -draft
ABIDJAN, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast from January 2012 will start the forward selling of future cocoa crops, according to a document seen by Reuters which outlines government plans to reverse a decade of liberalisation in the world's largest grower.
"External sales from the 2012/2013 season onwards will be handled by a computer-driven auction system. Commercial operations will start in January 2012," said the 48-page document issued by sector regulator CGFCC to market players at the start of this week. | |
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