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Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Wolseley, William Hill and Avesco

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From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 4th December 2012


The Markets

Chancellor George Osborne is set to order further deep cuts to the civil service when he gives his Autumn Statement tomorrow, spending the expected 5 billion pounds saved over the next two years on schools, roads and other infrastructure. On top of this, it is reported that Whitehall departments will be required to save an additional 1% on budgets next year and 2% in 2014.

Staying in the UK, GDP forecasts have been increased by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) for 2012 but the body still expects that the economy will shrink. The group predicts that the UK economy will shrink by 0.1% this year, down from the 0.4% contraction it had previously predicted, an improvement boosted by the effect of the Olympic Games. John Longworth, director-general of the BCC said "As we wait in anticipation for the Autumn Statement tomorrow, our new forecasts highlights the challenges still facing the UK economy over the months and years ahead".

In Australia, the nation's central bank has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3% in an attempt to combat a slowdown in the mining sector and to promote growth in other areas. Australia's cost of borrowing is now at the same level it was during the global financial crisis of 2009. "The urgency to actually find a replacement for mining investment has become quite acute" said Brian Redican of Macquarie Bank.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 1.77 points at 12,963.83 and the Nasdaq fell by 15.17 points to 2,656.67.

In London the FTSE 100 decreased by 2.20 points to 5,869.04; the FTSE 250 finished 25.82 points up at 12053.26; the FTSE All-Share gained 0.09 points to 3067.16; and the FTSE AIM Index fell by 5.14 points to 685.74.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce reiterated its "sell" stance on electronics retailer HMV(HMV) with a target price of 1p. This comes after news that like-for-like sales for the 20 weeks ended 15th September were down by 11.6%. The broker has a negative outlook on the company, unconvinced that the shift towards portable digital technology will be enough to offset the structural pressures on its core businesses of music, vision and gaming. The broker also notes that although the recent disposal of HMV Live will be used towards debt reduction, the business will remain highly indebted, with net borrowings of 167 million pounds. The shares slipped by 0.1p to 2.4p.

Canaccord Genuity maintains its "buy" stance on Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) with a target price of 380p. The broker notes that the investment firm continues to display superior financial performance dynamics compared with the rest of the sector, as equity fund and fixed income performances continue to remain robust. The broker is also impressed with the way the company has created higher margin inflows and lower margin outflows creating an overall positive margin trend. The broker goes on to praise management's pledge to return excess cash to shareholders as indicative for a potential spur in valuation. The shares gained 0.2p to 338p.

Shore Capital stuck with its "buy" stance on pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) after a "reassuring" pipeline update. The broker believes that the long-term future at GSK looks rosy given increased productivity from the research and development engine, with the internal rate of return on its way to reaching the target of 14%. This compares to the industry average of 8%. The broker is also excited about the prospect of GSK's new Zephyr product, an inhaled medicine to combat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as it believes the product will have "considerable upside" if regulatory approval is secured. The shares were up 9p to 1,354p.

Blue-Chips

Distributor of heating and plumbing products Wolseley (WOS) revealed a 0.9% increase in revenues to 3.325 billion pounds, coupled with growth in profits of 7.6% to 198 million pounds for the three months ended 31st October. The improvements came as the company grew its market share in key regions, especially the US and Canada. Growth was also supplemented by a reduction of 677 employees, as the company looked to cut costs. Significantly, net debt was 83% lower at the period end than 12 months previously at 87 million pounds. The shares climbed 23p to 2,887p.

Engineering and project management company Amec (AMEC) has been awarded a 330 million pound contract by the Kuwait National Petroleum Company to build a new oil refinery in Al Zour, Kuwait. The new refinery, due to be completed in 2018, is part of Kuwait's long term strategy to produce cleaner fuels while meeting its demand for electrical power generation. The capacity of the refinery will be 615,000 barrels per day and it is expected that 300 new jobs will be created as a result of the new project. The shares jumped by 4p to 1,057p.

Mid Caps

William Hill (WMH) announced that William Hill Online has followed Betfair's lead in deciding to pull out of the Greek market until such time that there is "greater clarity on the regulatory approach" taken by the Greek gambling authorities. The bookmaker believes that there are significant issues with the legality and enforceability of proposals set out in November by the Greek Gaming Commission, which set out financial penalties on gaming operators who operate without a locally issued license. Prior to this decision, William Hill Online had been expected to generate between 4 and 5 million pounds from Greek customers. The shares inched up by 1.5p to 339.8p.

British pub and breweries group Greene King (GNK) posted a 7.3% rise in revenues to 566.2 million pounds for the 24 weeks to October, as well as a 7.1% rise in pre-tax profits to 82.7 million pounds. The Suffolk-based firm attributed part of this growth to an increased amount of customers choosing casual dining over higher end restaurants, as diners continue to keep the purse strings tight. The shares increased by 5.5p to 615.5p..

TUI Travel (TT.) announced an 8% rise in pre-tax profits to 390 million pounds despite a 2% drop in revenues to 14.46 billion pounds for the year ended 30th September 2012. This rise in profits was boosted by a 3% increase in higher margin "unique" holidays, while online accommodation bookings exhibited 3% growth in profits. These results were in line with the company's strategy for growth, where it is looking for an annualised underlying operating profit growth rate of between 7-10%. The shares were up 9.1p at 278.1p.

Organiser of international trade exhibitions ITE Group (ITE) revealed a 10.8% increase in revenues to 172.3 million pounds and a 3.1% increase in pre-tax profits to 53 million pounds for the year ended 30th September. The company attached part of the rise in profits to a growth in the core portfolio and recent acquisitions. However, figures would have been even better if the company did not take the decision to relocate its Mosbuild construction site in Moscow to another venue, a decision that negatively affected profits by approximately 4.5 million pounds. The decision should set foundations for more substantial and sustainable growth in future years, according to the company. The shares surged up by 16.3p to 213.5p.

Small Caps & AIM

Spyware business Datong (DTE) reported growth in pre-tax profits from 48,000 pounds to 269,000 pounds for the year ended 30th September despite a 17.5% drop in revenues to 9.69 million pounds. The company, head-quartered in Leeds, cited higher financial pressures and uncertainties in Europe as the reason for the lower revenues, with sales in Europe down by 80% year-on-year. The group pointed to its continuing cost reduction initiatives as a reason for the rise in pre-tax profits and stated its intention to carry on these schemes into 2013. The shares fell by 1p to 29.5p.

Dewhurst (DWHT), the manufacturer of lift components, reported record sales of 51.6 million pounds for the year ended 30th September, with pre-tax profits up by 26% at 5.4 million pounds. The company, which also produces rail and keypad components, reported growth in all divisions and geographical territories, as sales improved in the UK, Europe and the Far East. The US remained broadly flat however. Despite these promising results, the company warned that customer confidence in the UK has deteriorated and that uncertainty has "crept back in" over the first part of the current financial year. The shares tumbled by 30p to 445p.

Avesco Group* (AVS), the provider of services to the entertainment industry, posted a trading update in which it revealed that business had been good in the year to date, boosted by the London 2012 Olympics. Significantly, the firm also stated that it expects to receive 60 million dollars (37.2 million pounds) in relation to litigation brought by Celador International against Walt Disney and others. The shares rocketed by 43.5p to 197.5p.

Stem cell company ReNeuron Group (RENE) reported a slight reduction in pre-tax losses, from 3.4 million pounds to 3.3 million pounds, for the 6 months to 30th September as a result of lower research and development spending. The Surrey-based firm reported that stem cell trials at Glasgow's Southern General Hospital continue to show promise, with data from trials suggesting that its CTX stem cell line may promote repair in a stroke-damaged brain. The shares were up by 0.12p to 2.12p.

Oil exploration company Creon Resources (CRO) has entered into a 170 million dollar (105.5 million pound) contract with Explorer 1 to construct and deliver one unit of a self-elevating mobile offshore drilling rig. Under the deal, Yangzijiang Offshore Engineering Co, in which Creon's 46.45% owned venture has a 40% stake, will build a rig with specifications allowing it to drill 30,000 feet in sea depths up to 350 feet. The shares climbed by 0.15p to 0.8p.

The Indian developer of clean energy, Greenko (GKO), announced the acquisition of the Sumez 14MW run-of river hydro project in the Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh. This latest deal brings Greenko's total operating portfolio to 289 MW, well on track for its target of 1,000MV in 2015. The run-of river project is located near Greenko's existing cluster of projects in Himichal and has a total value of approximately of 15 million pounds. The shares increased by 2.5p to 137p.

* Avesco Group is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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