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Monday, September 23, 2013

Minesite Newsletter 23rd September 2013

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 16th - 23rd September 2013
Dear Minesite subscriber,
Weekly Review

News from Anglo American last week that it was to pull out of the giant, but low-grade Pebble project in Alaska wasn't altogether surprising, given the recent trend in the industry for cutting back on mega projects.

Anglo's Mark Cutifani is significantly untainted enough by past decisions to be able to wield the axe without bringing the whole roof down on his head, and rightly so. Anglo's shares were not significantly affected by the announcement, although on the Canadian markets shares in its erstwhile partner Northern Dynasty got slammed, even though Anglo's interest reverts back to Northern Dynasty.

The reason for the selling was simple. Even though Northern Dynasty now owns 100 per cent of Pebble, without the support of a major the kind of heavyweight funding needed to develop the project looks a distant dream.

Not that some people haven't done very well out of Pebble already. Back in the early part of the last decade the current editor of Minesite, then at the Investors Chronicle, was threatened with legal action by Jim Slater, whose company Galahad Gold then had a significant stake in Northern Dynasty.

The suggestion had been that Pebble would never be developed, and that Northern Dynasty, and by extension Galahad was therefore not worth taking a serious interest in. That prognosis turned out to be right on one count and wrong on the other.

Pebble is still floundering, like other former Galahad projects, Skaergaard and Malmbjerg. But Galahad managed to exit well ahead of time, and booked a profit of £70 million on the sale of its Northern Dynasty stake to Rio Tinto and divers institutions.

Galahad made a big profit on Malmbjerg too, although that also remains undeveloped. And investors in Galahad itself, including Jim Slater, were quids in. The company dropped its proposed legal action almost as soon as it started it, bided its' time for a while, and then went off to spend its riches.

Which all goes to show that from an investment point of view, timing is everything. Projects come and go, some get mined and some don't. But if you can get in low and out high, there's plenty of money to be made at the right time in the cycle whatever happens. Let someone else – like Anglo American – take the hit.

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