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Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Gulf Keystone, Royal Mail and Burberry


From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 10th July 2013

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The Markets

Credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded its outlook on the UK banking sector from negative to stable. The upgrade marks the first time since May 2008 that Moody's has not had a negative outlook on the much maligned banking sector as the industry begins to benefit from an improving economic outlook and a healthier capital position amongst banks. The upgrade also comes as the European Union outlined new rules that would shift loss incurring responsibilities from the taxpayer to shareholders and bondholders in the event of banks going under. An extract from Moody's report read, "We believe that UK banks are sufficiently well-capitalised to sustain expected losses from both our central and adverse stress scenarios..we believe that UK banks will be well capitalised for the risks they face and will compare favourably to their European peers."

Over in Asia, it appears that the engine behind the supposed economic growth machine that is China may be starting to lose power. The world's second-largest economy has posted an unexpected fall in both imports and exports, fuelling already increasing concerns of slowing economic growth. Exports fell by 3.1% in June from a year earlier as global demand for Chinese goods weakened, while imports were down by 0.7% on last year as domestic demand slumped. The drop off in exports was particularly unforeseen as analysts had expected a 4% surge in Chinese shipments. Analysts do not expect the situation to necessarily improve in the short-term as Wang Jin, an analyst at Gutai Junan Securities in China, warned, "We expect both export and import data may remain at a relatively low level in the second half, due to weak demand at home and abroad."

Meanwhile in Europe, S&P slashed Italy's credit rating from BBB+ to BBB, two levels above junk. The downgrade is centred on the continuing economic struggles of the Eurozone as a whole, as well as the Italy's floundering economy. The Italian economy is currently on track for its eighth successive quarter of contraction while the unemployment rate is at its highest level since 1977. A statement from the S&P said, "The rating action reflects our view of a further worsening of Italy's economic prospects coming on top of a decade of real growth averaging minus 0.04 percent."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 30.26 points at 15,270.08 and the Nasdaq increased by 4.44 points to 2,988.76.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 8.12 points to 6,504.96 and the FTSE 250 plummeted by 89.35 points to 14,531.23. The FTSE All-Share was down by 12.29 points to 3,439.06, while the FTSE AIM Index slipped by 3.49 points to 704.29.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Singer maintained its "sell" stance on wholesaler Booker (BOK) with a target price of 115p. The broker notes yesterday's announcement which revealed that sales were up by 13.6% year-on-year on the back of the acquisition of competitor Makro. However, although N+1 Singer is impressed overall with Booker, it feels that the strength of the investment case is now well priced and that now is the right time to take profits. The shares slid by 1.7p to 128.6p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on rental firm Lavendon Group (LVD)with a target price of 199p. The broker admits that it does not expect much improvement in UK trading. However, Panmure feels that the Middle East operations should be seeing on-going additional activity levels and believes that Lavendon's self-help measures should also continue to drive internal efficiencies, improving margins in the process. The shares were down by 1.5p at 160.5p.

Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its "buy" recommendation on oil explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) with a target price of 235p. Following a successful exploration programme at Shaikanb, the broker feels that GKP's move into full field development is a significant milestone in the company's strategy to become one of the region's largest producers. However, Cantor does accept that the outcome of the firm's protracted legal battle with Excalibur will have a significant impact on company valuation. The shares crept upwards by 0.5p to 160p.

Blue-Chips

Luxury brand Burberry (BRBY) posted an 18% increase in revenues to 339 million pounds for the three months ended 30th June as its spring/summer collection proved to be popular with consumers. Burberry explained that the sale of outerwear and large leather goods accounted for around half of its growth while men's accessories and tailoring also performed well. Geographically, Burberry demonstrated double digit sales growth in the Asia Pacific and Americas regions and managed single digit growth in Europe despite the ongoing economic problems on the continent. The shares climbed by 69p to 1,509p.

Advertising agency WPP (WPP) revealed that Kantar, its data investment management division, has acquired Sirius Marketing & Social Research Limited, a market research agency in Bangladesh. The acquisition is in line with WPP's strategy of developing a network in fast growing markets and territories. The announcement comes a day after Investec retained its "buy" recommendation on the group, increasing its target price from 1,175p to 1,250p. The shares edged upwards by 2p to 1,173p.

Mid Caps

Bike and car parts merchant Halfords (HFD) reported an 8% uplift in revenues for the 13 week period ended 28th June, in an increase boosted by a solid performance from its car maintenance division. Halfords - which did admit that it was up against weak 2012 comparators - also cited the impact of drier weather as reason for its success. On the back of the update broker N+1 Singer retained its "buy" recommendation on the group with a target price of 380p. The shares drove upwards by 36.3p to 354.5p.

Business Secretary Vince Cable confirmed that the government is to list Royal Mail on the London Stock Exchange later this year. A majority stake will be sold to investors, with 10% of shares being given to employees. Royal Mail is expected to be valued in the range of 2-3 billion pounds, which would put it at the top end of the FTSE 250.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH) has sold National Veterinary Services, Dechra Laboratory Services and Dechra Specialist Laboratories to Patterson Companies for a total consideration of 87.5 million pounds. Dechra argues that the transactions allow the business to focus on high margin, specialist vetinary pharmaceutical products which, according to Dechra, offer "attractive long term growth prospects". Separately, the group conceded that, although trading in the three months ended 30th June was good, it was not enough to offset the impact of adverse weather and supply issues in the US in the previous quarter. The shares dived by 45.5p to 700p.

Brokerage ICAP (IAP) confirmed that revenues were up by 2% over the three months ended 30th June with trading remaining mixed over the period. ICAP explained that low interest rates have squeezed demand for its risk mitigation services, while trading in commodities slumped on the back of a drop off in investment in the sector. Espirito Santo Execution Noble stuck with its "neutral " recommendation on the company after it upgraded its "sell" stance at the back end of last month. The shares fell by 15.1p to 384.9p.

Small Caps

Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) , the radiotherapy specialist, announced that it has raised 0.5 million pounds before expenses, issuing 16.75 million new shares at 3p - an 85% premium to yesterday's closing price. The new shares have been placed with two unnamed new investors, one in Switzerland and one in the UK. Management stressed that it will pay down debt with the proceeds in an attempt to increase the financial stability of the group. The shares surged by 0.3p to 1.93p.

Oil exploration group Rialto Energy (RIA) revealed that its Starfish-1 well in the Offshore Accra Contract Area in Ghana has not encountered any commercially viable oil or gas. The findings come after the well was drilled to a depth of 4,380 metres before wireline logging operations were undertaken to evaluate the hydrocarbon potential of the primary target. Rialto went on to confirm that the well will now be plugged and abandoned. The shares plummeted by 0.77p to 1.06p.

Satellite operator Avanti Communications (AVN) warned that revenues generated over the year ended 30th June are likely to be 10 million pounds below market expectations as a "result of timing movements of certain contracts". According to Avanti, Several major contracts in Africa which were expected to close before 30th June are now expected to fall in the next financial year. The shares sank by 101.75p to 145p.

Mission Marketing (TMMG), the communications and advertising group, conceded that its recent acquisition of the Addiction Group will result in a lower level of profit than was achieved last year. The group also admitted to poor management and used this to explain why its Branded Content businesses lost clients such as B&Q over the first half of the year. However, the firm remains confident in its future financial position and cited the trends of reducing net debt and lowering the leverage ratio as reasons for its optimism. The shares were down by 3.25p at 23p.

Provider of office services Restore (RST), claimed that it has traded in line with expectations for the first 6 months of 2013. The company reserved praise for its Document Management division which has "performed strongly" while Restore said that the acquisitions of File & Data, Atix and IT Efficient are proceeding as planned. The group went on to say that its office relocation division continued to benefit from improved market conditions and a reduction in its cost base. The shares grew by 4p to 121.5p.

Water technology manufacturer Modern Water (MWG) has secured a "substantial product development contract" with United Phosphorous Inc, an agrochemical company. The deal will see Modern Water develop and supply a new herbicide testing system to test for Endothall, an aquatic weed control. The financial details of the contract - which builds upon a 13 year partnership between the two companies - were not disclosed to the market. The shares increased by 0.75p to 41.75p.

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