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Thursday, July 11, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Babcock, Balfour Beatty and Brainjuicer


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 11th July 2013

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The Markets

In its most positive outlook in over two years, the National Bank of Japan (BoJ) claimed that the nation's economy was beginning to recover. The bank praised the impact of its monetary stimulus programme and cited a weakening yen as reason for an increasing level of exports. The central bank also maintained its medium-term, 2% inflation target, a central focus for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he looks to drive the economy forwards. Although the BoJ has been suggesting that the third largest economy - behind the US and China - has been on an upwards curve for the last 6 months, this most recent announcement is the biggest indication yet that the economy is truly beginning to gather some momentum. An extract from the BoJ statement read, "With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to recover moderately on the back of the resilience in domestic demand and the pick-up in overseas economies."

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month revealed that the nation's quantitative easing programme was likely to continue at its current level for some time to come. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake last month sent shockwaves around global markets when he suggested that recent improvements in the US economy may warrant a "tapering" of its stimulus measures. Although this latest set of minutes do not give any firm conclusions, market whisperers reckon that September could be the point where the U.S begin to hold back on its bond purchases. Kate Warne, Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, commented, "The minutes are more consistent with the messages we've been getting since the Fed meeting, which is that we should expect this to occur slowly and it may not happen in September."

Here in the UK, new data has revealed that companies are shelling out increasing amounts on marketing spend on the back of improving business confidence. According to researchers IPA Bellwether, 22% of companies increased advertising spending in the second quarter of the year while only 15% cut back, giving a positive net balance of 7.3% - the highest since the third quarter of 2007. The positive data comes after the International Monetary Fund upped its growth estimate for the UK economy on Tuesday. Director General of IPA, Paul Bainsfair, argued, "Companies are beginning to shake off the cloak of recession and are becoming more confident in the economy."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 142.53 points at 15,434.19 and the Nasdaq increased by 44.28 points to 3,044.94.

In London the FTSE 100 grew by 38.45 points to 6,543.41 and the FTSE 250 was up by 109.72 points to 14,640.95. The FTSE All-Share increased by 20.97 points to 3,465.92, while the FTSE AIM Index swelled by 4.99 points to 709.32.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation on working platform rental firm Lavendon Group (LVD) with a target price of 199p. The broker is impressed with Lavendon's recent progress, especially in terms of Middle East revenue growth. Panmure, acknowledged that there may be some pricing weakness in its UK operations but is adamant that the firm's geographical diversity should offset any bottom line impact this could have.. The shares fell by 5.75p to 154.75p.

Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its "buy" recommendation on fashion retailer Supergroup (SGP), increasing its target price from 900p to 100p. The broker feels that Supergroup's new management team has set the company on a path of building on the strengths of the brand and developing the business on the internet and overseas. Cantor also feels that the current discount to peers such as Ted Baker is unjustified. The shares climbed by 49p to 858p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on engineering group on MDM Engineering (MDM) with a target price of 161p. Although the recent dividend payouts have left MDM with around 45p of net cash per share, Canaccord feels that MDM remains well placed as an independent company. Moreover, Canaccord is impressed with MDM'S overall business model, citing its scalable cost base which would help it to ride out any further worsening of market conditions. The shares inched up by 1p to 122.5p.

Blue-Chips

Primark owner and sugar business Associated British Foods (ABF) posted an 8% increase in revenues for the 16 weeks ended 22nd June despite its sugar business delivering a slump in turnover. The increase was driven by a 20% increase in sales from its Primark business which continued to capitalise on its value offering, selling fashionable clothes priced below the majority of its high street counterparts. Meanwhile, revenue at the group's grocery division, whose brands include Twinings and Ryvita, rose 7%, but turnover declined by 15% at its sugar business. The shares soared by 92p to 1,907p.

Engineering support services group Babcock (BAB) claimed that it has enjoyed a good start to the 2013/2014 financial year, trading in-line with its original expectations. Babcock stressed that these challenging economic times are actually playing into its hands as long term outsourcing opportunities continue to be created. The update prompted Liberum Capital to maintain its "hold" recommendation on the group, sticking with its target price of 1,050p. The shares were down by 8p to 1,176p.

Mid Caps

Recruiters Hays (HAS) revealed that net fees increased by 1% in the three months ended 30th June as activity in the UK and Europe helped to offset weakness in the Asia Pacific numbers. By segment, temporary placements were the main driver of growth as, according to Hays, permanent job markets remained fragile globally. Despite the ongoing uncertainty, Hays insists that it is line to deliver full year operating profit at the top end of current market estimates. The shares jumped by 4.9p to 99.9p.

Construction group Balfour Beatty (BBY) admitted that the market for its professional services business in Australia has worsened since it last updated the market back in May. Balfour explained that the Australian trading environment remains challenging due to a significant number of project cancellations in the natural resources sector as well as planned government spending cuts in the sector. Looking ahead, the group concedes that its markets continue to be challenging and said that its profits are likely to be significantly more skewed to the second half of the year this year. The shares jumped by 6.2p to 225.7p.

Price comparison site Moneysupermarket.com (MONY) declared that interim revenues and profits should be in line with expectations, despite a slowdown in recent months triggered by changes to Google's search methods. Revenues and EBITDA are expected to be up by 10% and 29% respectively - firmly in line with previous guidance. Moneysupermarket.com went on to say that it is overcoming the aforementioned search changes by Google and that it is now regaining its position in the competitive online insurance arena. The update was enough for broker Investec to maintain its "buy" recommendation on the firm, sticking with its target price of 225p. The shares lost 3.5p, finishing the day at 200.1p.

Small Caps

Spreadbetting firm London Capital Group (LCG) expects pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June 2013 to come in at around 3.1 million pounds, up on last year's profit of 2.1 million pounds. The group attributed this improvement to increased volatility which has enticed consumers to take positions on the market. The firm also confirmed that the sales of ProSpreads, its Gibraltar-based subsidiary, should be completed in the next 4 - 6 weeks. The shares increased by 3.75p to 37.5p.

Gold miner Petropavlovsk (POG) stressed that it was not aware of any "particular recent event" which could account for the recent fall off in share price. Petropavlovsk's share price was down by 14% yesterday to 67.25p, partly affected by increasing debt levels. Although the firm acknowledge that the gold price is weak at the moment, it re-affirmed that it is significantly protected from this trend due to its forward selling programme. The shares swelled by 9.25p to 76.5p.

Business support services group Communisis (CMS) revealed that it has secured a 10 year contract with Lloyds Banking Group which will see it become the outsource partner of all transactional customer communications in the UK. According to Communisis, the contract - which remains subject to approval by the board - is the largest of its kind in the UK. Under the terms of the deal, Communisis will assume responsibility for Lloyds' current manufacturing sites in Copley and Crawley. The shares gained 12.5p, finishing the day at 67p.

Mobile marketing group InternetQ (INTQ) announced that underlying revenues have continued to grow across all of its business divisions and that it expects full year revenues for the period ended 30th June to be up around 30% on last year. InternetQ partly attributed its growth to subscriber growth for its Akazoo offering, a digital music service. The firm also reserved special praise for its Minimob business - a service which allows developers to optimise mobile applications - arguing that it "remains well placed to expand its market offering in the current year." The shares were up by 20.5p to 329p.

Market research firm Brainjuicer (BJU) expects a return to growth in 2013 with gross profit up by an estimated 6% so far this year. Brainjuicer cited an improved performance within the UK and US markets which helped to offset falls in business in continental Europe and China. Canaccord Genuity still has faith in the group, impressed with how cost cutting has underpinned a strong margin recovery. As such, the broker has maintained its "buy" recommendation and 298p target price. The shares increased by 10.5p to 257p.

Gold miner Kolar Gold (KGLD) revealed that the Indian government is set to give the nod to the go ahead with the long-awaited tender sale of the Bharat Gold Mines at the Kolar Gold Fields. This long-awaited development - which Kolar originally thought would take between 2-5 years to complete when it floated back in 2011 - will allow Kolar to bid for the mines. Kolar did stress that any acquisition would require a separate fundraising which, in turn, would require shareholder consent. The shares crept upwards by 0.875p to 5.125p.

Oil company Xplorer (XPL) floated on the London Stock Exchange's main market, raising 1 million pounds via the placing of 6.25 million shares at 16p. Xplorer intends to acquire an oil and gas exploration business and feels it can create value for shareholders "by focussing on opportunities where there is less visibility on transaction pricing owing to a combination of context and geography". Although not confirmed in the group's official announcement, it is thought that Xplorer is interested in gaining exposure in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. The shares closed the day at 18p.

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