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Friday, July 12, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring G4S, Experian, Invensys, Oxford Instruments, Scancell and Emis


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 12th July 2013

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The Markets

The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 surged to record highs yesterday on the back of indications that the US central bank will keep to the current levels of quantitative easing measures for some time yet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up by 1.1% at 15,460.92 while the S&P closed up by 1.3% at 1,675.02. The increase comes just a day after minutes from June's US Federal Reserve policy meeting were released that suggested the "tapering" of stimulus measures is not on the immediate economic horizon, enticing investors back into equity markets. Alec Young, Global Equity Strategist at S&P Capital IQ, explained "The Fed has made it unequivocally clear that they are not in any hurry to do anything. It's very bullish for stocks. "

Here in the UK, construction output remained unchanged in May on April, maintaining expectations that the UK will deliver healthy GDP growth for the April - June quarter. The construction sector - which accounts for 6% of the UK economy - has recently been a focal point for the government as it attempted to revive the sector with measures such as the "Help To Buy" and "Funding for Lending" schemes. The success of these schemes has been reflected of late as a string of housebuilders have released upbeat updates to the market. Howard Archer, Chief UK and European Economist at IHS Global Insight, commented, "It looks highly likely that construction output made a recently all-too-rare positive contribution to gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, thereby helping growth to strengthen and broaden from the first quarter."

Standard & Poor's has upgraded its credit outlook on the Republic of Ireland from "stable" to "positive" as it feels that the nation's debt could reduce quicker than originally anticipated. Although S&P maintained its BBB rating on Ireland's debt, it did say that it saw a more than one-in-three probability it would raise Ireland's credit rating during the next two years. The outlook upgrade highlights the significant disparity between the prospects for Ireland and other bailed out European economies such as Portugal and Greece. Philip O'Sullivan, Chief Economist at NCB Stockbrokers commented, "When you look at some of the cliff-hangers we have had in the rest of the periphery, Ireland has kept its head down and got on with it and I think that has been recognised."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 142.53 points at 15,434.19 and the Nasdaq increased by 44.28 points to 3,044.94.

In London the FTSE 100 grew by 38.45 points to 6,543.41 and the FTSE 250 was up by 109.72 points to 14,640.95. The FTSE All-Share increased by 20.97 points to 3,465.92, while the FTSE AIM Index swelled by 4.99 points to 709.32.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital downgraded its "hold" stance to a "sell" outlook on broker Tullet Prebon (TLPR), urging investors to quit while they are ahead. The broker acknowledges that the revenue environment is stabilising at present but feels that margins and earnings in the near-term will remain under pressure owing to ongoing investment spend on platform development. Shore Capital goes on to argue that Tullet's current valuation is too high given the weak earnings and dividend growth outlook and ongoing regulatory uncertainties facing the industry. The shares slipped by 0.4p to 341.2p.

Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its "hold" recommendation to a "sell" stance on security firm G4S (GFS), slashing its target price from 315p to 220p. The broker notes the recent "overcharging" allegations surrounding G4S. Cantor is concerned by the damage this story is having on the company's reputation and believes its decision not to co-operate with a further forensic audit is straining its relationship with the UK government, its single largest customer. The shares slid by 3.5p to 209.5p.

Beaufort Securities cut its "buy" recommendation to a "hold" on engineering services firm Babcock (BAB) on the back of yesterday's IMS for the second quarter of the year. The broker feels that order book and bid pipeline are looking healthy at present, providing a firm visibility of future revenues. However, Beaufort believes that these positives are already factored into the current price, leaving little scope for further appreciation. The shares were down by 3p to 1,173p.

Blue-Chips

Credit data firm Experian (EXPN) claimed that it was in line to hit its growth targets for the current year despite civil unrest in Brazil which has affected some sectors in this lucrative South American market. Over the three months ended 30th June, total revenue was up by around 7% as business activity increased within the group's North American business. Earlier in the week Deutsche Bank re-iterated its "buy" recommendation on the company, increasing its target price from 1200p to 1300p. The shares fells by 16p to 1,183p.

British Gas owner Centrica (CNA) announced that its North American subsidiary, Direct Energy, has agreed to acquire Bounce Energy, the US electricity retailer. Centrica will pay around 30 million pounds plus additional working capital with a further of $5 million (3.3 million pounds) payable if certain performance criteria market. Centrica argued the deal will provide its customers with "more innovative and efficient energy options" while developing its North American residential energy business. The shares dropped by 3.8p to 370.2p.

Mid Caps

Technology group Oxford Instruments (OXIG) conceded that trading was slow during April and May but insisted that business had improved in June. According to Oxford, order intake in the quarter was above the monthly average for the last financial year in Asia by 18% but below in North America and Europe by 20% and 1%, respectively. Looking ahead, management insist that the group is in good shape, arguing that its strong pipeline of products should continue to underpin the long term prospects of the group. The shares climbed by 120p to 1,370p.

Fund manager Phoenix Holdings (PHNX) has responded to recent speculation in the press and confirmed that it is in "preliminary discussions " with Swiss Re Ltd. The discussion centres on a potential merger between Phoenix and Swiss Re's Admin Re Business Unit which could possibly result in Swiss Re taking a minority shareholding in Phoenix. However, Pheonix was keen to stress that there was no certainty that any transaction will take place. The shares flew by 66p to 719p.

Invensys (ISYS) confirmed that it has received a takeover offer from Schneider, the French power equipment maker, at 505 pence per share - a 15% premium to yesterday's closing price. The board said it was likely to accept Schneider's offer which values the company at 3.3 billion pounds. Recent Consensus on Invensy's amongst brokers has been on the positive side with Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale already retaining positive stances on the group this month. The shares shot up by 67.9p to 508p.

Small Caps

Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG), the Italy-focused oil explorer, revealed that it has been requested to complete an "Autorizzazione Integrata Ambientale" (an Integrated Environmental Authorisation) for its Ombrina Mare Project by the Italian Ministry of Environment and of Protection of Land and Sea ("MEPLS"). This request will have to be satisfied before the ministry considers further approvals on the road to production. Mediterranean Oil and Gas was not happy with the request and said it was now reviewing its options on this front. The shares lost 1p, finishing the day at 6.38p.

Medical Group Scancell Holdings (SCLP) announced that one of the three patients undergoing its higher 8mg dose study of SCIB1 will no longer continue with trials "due to delivery of an incomplete dose of SCIB1 following a fault with the electroporation device for that patient". Scancell is adamant that it will find a replacement patient "as soon as possible" and now feels that this initIal part of study could now run into next year. The shares were down by 2.75p to 25p.

Afraig (AFRI) has made its first investment by taking the plunge with a 40% stake in South African logistics firm Afraig SA for 1.326 million pounds - 10,000 pounds of which paid in cash with the remainder paid in shares. Afraig management explained that the investment was part of its strategy of gaining exposure to the rapidly growing agricultural markets in southern Africa. The shares soared by 0.2p to 1.03p.

Clinical software firm Emis Group (EMIS) announced that trading for the first half of the year has been in line with expectations. Emis Claimed that it managed to increase its market share and argued that it now benefits from significant and growing revenue visibility. Management also stressed that it was encouraged by recent comments from Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary who hinted that service like Emis' offering would become the norm rather than the exception. The shares inched upwards by 9.25p to 760.25p.

Investment vehicle Sweett Group (CSG) announced that the Leeds Social Housing project has reached financial close and, as a result, it should receive around 800,000 pounds. The group also announced that it sold down its 25% equity entitlement in the Project to Equitix Limited for 1.6 million pounds. Sweett said that it would use the funds to pay sums due to the vendors of Widnell Limited and to reduce group debt. The shares were up by 0.5p to 23.5p.

 

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