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Monday, January 7, 2013

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Morrisons, Nichols and Camkids


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 7th January 2013


The Markets

Shares in European banks rose after a weekend agreement was reached on the minimum amounts of cash and easy-to-sell assets that banks have to hold. Under the new regulations, banks will be required to hold enough cash and "easy to sell" assets to tide them over during a 30-day crisis. Banks had warned that tough regulations could reduce lending and hinder lending and economic growth but Bank of England governor Sir Mervin King said the new measures would not "hinder the ability of the global banking system to finance a recovery".

In the UK, car registrations grew by 5.3% in 2012 to 2.04 million in the highest rise since 2008 according to the SMMT car industry body. The consensus from the body is that the market will hold firm during 2013 but others are less sure. Richard Lowe at Barclays warned, "As we look to the year ahead, the real question is whether this demand will hold".

Staying in the UK, according to the Halifax, average house prices contracted by 0.3% to 163,845 pounds in 2012 and are likely to remain flat in 2013. Although regional differences are expected, the Halifax believes that there will be stability in house prices this year. Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax commented, "We expect continuing broad stability in house prices nationally in 2013 with prices likely to end the year at levels close to where they began"

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 56.01 points at 13,379.20 and the Nasdaq fell by 0.32 points to 2,724.17.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 24.11 points to 6,065.73; the FTSE 250 finished 18.51 points down at 12,713.41; the FTSE All-Share lost 9.97 points to 3,181.13; and the FTSE AIM Index crept up by 3.86 points to 723.30.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its "buy" stance on The Restaurant Group (RTN) with a target price of 440p. The broker is impressed with how the company has consistently outperformed the wider sector and increased its market share throughout the downturn. Canaccord goes on to say that the way the company has firmly placed itself in the "Value for Money" market should help the firm to do relatively well in times where consumers are faced with ever increasing pressure on incomes. The shares lost 1.3p to 387.5p.

Daniel Stewart issued a "sell" recommendation on Ladbrokes (LAD) with a target price of 140p. The broker believes the bookmaker's potential acquisition of Betdaq is not a wise move as Betfair is the clear market leader in this regard and Betdaq will find it hard to compete. The broker goes on to predict that there will be a decline in year-on-year revenues for 2012 and highlights comparatively poor online growth as further reason for its "sell" stance. The shares remained flat at 202.2p.

Shore Capital downgraded its "buy" recommendation on support services firm Babcock (BAB) to "hold". Although the shares have outpaced the FTSE All-Share index by 100% over the past two years the broker now expects a pause in performance as the UK defence market continues to shrink. Despite this warning the broker is of the opinion that Babcock remains an attractive long-term investment as the firm offers a sustainable business model, with long-term contracts and cash flows. The shares fell by 11.5p to 997.5p.

Blue-Chips

Morrisons (MRW) posted a 0.9% drop in total sales and a 2.5% fall in like-for-like sales (excluding fuel sales) over the Christmas period in the 6 weeks ended 30th December. The firm attributed its poor performance to sub standard promotional innovation as well as a lack of clear communication on its points of difference. Morrison's is the first of the big supermarkets to release a Christmas trading update this week, with Tesco and Sainsbury's both due to release in the coming days. The shares slipped by 0.8p to 256.1p. Read the thoughts of Richard Gill & Zak Mir on the Supermarket and retail trading updates this week - CLICK HERE

International service group Serco (SRP) revealed it has agreed a 100 million pounds extension to its contract to operate, maintain and market the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) on behalf of Transport for London, prolonging its end date on the project from April 2013 to September 2014. This extension comes after a particularly successful year for Serco in terms of the DLR as it was named "light operator of the year" and helped transport 7.2 million passengers during the Olympic Games, more than double normal levels. The shares dropped by 0.5p to 551.5p.

Education giant Pearson (PSON) has declared plans to exit its UK adult training business, Pearson in Practice. The firm has come to this decision because of changes to national apprenticeships schemes, particularly the shift from a programme-led to an employer-led model. This change has reduced demand for the type of programme which is offered by Pearson in Practice and therefore the group feels that the business no longer has a sustainable business model. The cost of closure and impairment is predicted to be in the region of 120 million pounds. The shares were down by 12p at 1210p.

Mid Caps

Data services provider Cobham (COB) has secured a $31.7 million (19.7 million pounds) contract from the US Navy's Naval Air Systems Command to develop a low band transmitter-antenna group for electronic warfare aircraft. The product in question is designed to protect aircraft, ships and ground troops by disturbing enemy radar and communications. The deal, which brings the total number of production orders for this product to 314, builds upon an already well grounded relationship between Cobham and the US Navy. The shares gained 1p to 226.8p.

Construction group Galliford Try (GFRD) has been appointed  preferred bidder, in a partnership with Contour Homes, for the 100 million pounds Brunswick regeneration project. The project is an attempt to transform the Brunswick area of East Manchester by providing 522 new homes and significant infrastructure improvements. The shares were up by 16p at 777p.

Interserve (IRV), the support and construction group, has agreed a deal to acquire Willbros Middle East Limited (WME) for a cash consideration of $41.3 million (25.73 million pounds). WME provides oil field maintenance, construction and logistics services in Oman and generated $6 million (3.7 million pounds) of pre-tax profits in the first 10 months of 2012. The acquisition fits in with the firm's strategy of increasing its presence in Oman, a market which offers $2.5 billion of oil, gas and power services contracts per year. The shares increased by 6.5p to 398.5p.

Small Caps & AIM

Physiomics (PYC), the systems biology company, has recruited Dr Hitesh Mistry as a Senior Scientist. Dr Mistry has experience in the pharmaceutical industry, specifically in the areas of target identification and clinical development and he is being awarded for building a translational disease model for Prostate Cancer in his time working for AstraZeneca. Physiomics hopes the appointment will eventually lead to a much larger market than the pre-clinical arena in which the company currently operates. The shares grew by 0.016p to 0.121p.

Nichols (NICL), the soft drink specialist, reported that sales for the whole of 2012 increased by 9% to 108 million pounds as strong trading momentum continued over the Christmas period. The result was ahead of the soft drink market in general in the UK which increased in value by only 3.2%. As a result of the robust performance the company expects group profit and earnings per share to be "significantly ahead" of last year and market expectations. The shares climbed by 33p to 858p.

Pawnbroking firm H&T Group (HAT) expects full year pre-tax profits to be in-line with market expectations for 2012. The group also emphasised that it has become the first UK pawnbroker to build a pledge book of over 50 million pounds, it now standing at 51.6 million pounds, an increase driven by new store openings and the group changing its interest rates to become more competitive on larger loans. The shares jumped by 15.875p to 298.5p.

Shares in China based children's clothing manufacturer and seller Camkids (CAMK) finished up by 3p at 92.5p on the back of analysis from t1ps.com published late on Friday. The report was written following the firm's AIM IPO on the 24th December, in which the company raised 6.4 million pounds at 88.5p per share. t1ps.com notes that the shares trade on a historic ex-cash multiple of just 3 times and that the company provides exposure to the strong growth of the emerging markets and to Chinese consumerism in particular. To read the full report, which has just been made available on the t1ps site tour - CLICK HERE.

Interactive gaming company Netplay (NPT) reported a 29% increase in revenues for the last quarter of 2012, boosted by mobile and tablet growth. In particular, the group's supercasino.com and jackpot247.com brands have done particularly well, exhibiting a 205% increase in mobile a and tablet revenue, boosted by an extensive programme of TV adverts. The shares increased by 0.01p to 0.12p.

Purecircle (PURE), the stevia sweetener producer, posted an 80% increase in sales to $27.3 million (16.8 million dollars) for the period between 1st July 2012 and 31st December 2012. The company attributed its growth to new innovations in its portfolio of all-natural, no calorie sweeteners and natural flavour systems. As well as recording growth for all of its ingredients the company also reported growth in all of the geographical regions in which it operates; EMEA, Latin America, Asia Pacific and the USA. The shares inched up by 0.5p to 251.5p.

Medical group RetroScreen Virology (RVG) has been awarded a 3.9 million pounds contract to undertake a study into influenza transmission. The study will be the largest ever investigation into the subject and will be funded by the United States Centre's for Disease Control and Prevention. The firm will be working with the University of Nottingham on the project as the two have already worked together on establishing an initial transmission model. The shares were up by 13p at 150.5p.

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