To download the full report (PDF document) please click here SPECIAL PDF REPORT - WANG TAO TECH ANALYSIS Q1 PDF: Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao expects spot gold's medium-trend downtrend that started at the Sept. 6, 2011 high of $1,920.30 to continue through the first quarter of the year, pushing prices down to $1,417 per ounce over the period. Falls also lie in store for base metals, Wang Tao added.
For a PDF of his first-quarter technical analyses on commodities and energy prices, please click here COLUMN: Analysts at odds over U.S. corn stocks: Maguire --Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-- CHICAGO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Grain analysts typically have a herd-like mentality when it comes to projecting major U.S. crop balance sheet statistics in major U.S. department of agriculture reports, and often cluster their key estimates within tight ranges.
Such tight grouping is not all that surprising given that most analysts tend to have the same limited information to work off, and usually operate under similar 'macro' assumptions with regard to global trade prospects. But estimates for U.S. corn stocks ahead of the upcoming key USDA release on Jan. 12 couldn't be more varied - and feature a 73 percent chasm between the highest and lowest projection for U.S. corn stocks - suggesting that analysts are expecting some big surprises this time around. China copper imports end 2011 with a bang: Andy Home 
--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - China's imports of copper started 2011 with a whimper but ended the year with a bang.
December's aggregate imports of refined metal, anode, alloy and products were a record 508,942 tonnes. Fourth quarter imports totalled 1,344,500 tonnes, up from 904,000 tonnes in Q1 and just 797,000 tonnes in Q2.
Iran oil sanctions are an unpredictable gamble: John Kemp--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - If war is merely the continuation of policy by other means, aimed at compelling our enemy to do our will, as military strategist Carl von Clausewitz maintained, then sanctions are a form of warfare without overt fighting. For the last few years, Iran has been locked in an intensifying, undeclared war with Israel, the United States and their allies in Europe and the Middle East. China import value soft, not commodity volumes: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Jan 10 (Reuters) - No doubt the main headline-grabber on China's December trade data will be the significantly slower-than-forecast growth in imports, but what this hides is that commodity volumes held up very nicely indeed.
China's imports and exports expanded at their slowest pace in two years, with imports only managing to grow 11.8 percent against expectations of a 17 percent gain. ENERGY: Brent slips below $113 as Europe overshadows Mideast woes
SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Brent crude slipped below $113 as Europe's debt crisis and expectations of a rise in oil inventories in the United States for the third straight week overshadowed concerns of supply disruption from Iran and Nigeria.
"People are focussing on the greater economy as there are no headlines on Iran this morning," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. "But the greater economy, especially the euro zone, is weak."
EIA sees 2012 U.S. natgas production at record high
NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday slightly lowered its estimate for domestic natural gas production in 2012 but still sees output this year at a record high level.
In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2012 to rise by 1.4 billion cubic feet per day to a record 67.34 bcfd, down slightly from its December outlook that had output next year at 67.72 bcf daily.
Saudi oil output nearing capacity limit
DUBAI/RIYADH, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is nearing its comfortable operational production limits and may struggle to do much to make up for shortages that arise from new sanctions imposed on Iran by the West, Gulf-based sources said.
The kingdom, now pumping just under record rates of 10 million barrels per day, has poured billions of dollars into its vast oil fields, which on paper should ensure it has the ability to ramp up to 12.5 million bpd.
AGRICULTURE: US corn, soy fall on Argentina rains, firm dollar
SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. corn and soy slid around half a percent, weighed down by a firm dollar and rains in Argentina that brought much-needed relief to parts of its drought-hit crop belt.
"Corn and soybeans are feeling a little bit of pressure from current rainfall in South America as we are seeing some relief to the drought-stressed crops," said Luke Mathews, Commodities Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Rains finally hit Argentina, help corn, soy
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Rain finally started to hit Argentina's grain belt on Tuesday and farmers in the major agricultural exporter hoped the showers would last long enough to revive soy and corn fields dried out by a drought that raised global supply worries.
The South American country provides about 20 percent of the world's corn exports, 12 percent of soybean exports and nearly half the exports of soyoil, used for cooking and biofuels. But an unforgiving southern hemisphere summer sun has baked Argentina's corn and soy plants this month and last, just as they entered their key flowering stage.
Paraguay soy parched, crop losses to hurt economy
ASUNCION, Jan 10 (Reuters) - A drought striking South American farm lands has affected 40 percent of Paraguay's 2011/12 soy crop, raising concern among banks that farmers will stop repaying loans and stoking worries that economic growth will be slashed.
Paraguay, one of South America's poorest countries, is the world's No. 4 soybean supplier and the oilseed is its top export earner. The lack of rain has shrunk its main crop while a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak pummels the beef industry.
Brazil sees record 2012 crop coffee despite dryness
BRASILIA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Brazil will produce a record coffee crop in the 2012/13 harvest season, helped by increased investment and despite a harsh dry spell that cut productive potential at the season's outset, the crop supply agency Conab said on Tuesday.
Brazil should harvest 49 million to 52.3 million 60-kg bags compared with 48.1 million bags in the last 'on-year' crop in 2010, according to Conab estimates.
French July-Nov wheat exports down 13 pct -customs
PARIS, Jan 10 (Reuters) - French soft wheat exports for the July-November period were down 13 percent on year as a sharp drop in shipments outside the European Union continued to outweigh a rise in volumes within the EU, customs data showed on Tuesday.
France exported 1.75 million tonnes of soft wheat in November, bringing the volume since the start of the 2011/12 season on July 1 to 7.5 million tonnes, down from 8.6 million at the same stage last season, the data showed.
Indian imports may raise vegoil prices -Oil World
HAMBURG, Jan 10 (Reuters) - A poor rapeseed harvest looming in India could its edible oil import requirements in coming months and add support to global vegetable oil prices at a time of concern about drought damage to South American soybean harvests, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Indian oilseed processors warned on Jan. 4 that a poor rapeseed crop was likely in 2012. The extent of crop damage is unclear but larger edible oil imports are expected.
India's Dec rubber imports jump; trend seen continuing
MUMBAI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - India imported 21,734 tonnes of natural rubber in December, up 57 percent on year, state-run Rubber Board said, and traders expect the robust pace to continue as tyre makers resort to cheaper imports to make good a likely decline in domestic output.
India's rubber production rose just 1 percent to 104,000 tonnes in December, while consumption increased 4.39 percent to stood at 84,000 tonnes, the board said in a statement.
BASE METALS: LME copper falls, weighed down by euro zone funding concern
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 11 (Reuters) - London copper fell for a second day in three, as euro zone funding concerns outweighed optimism that China's demand for the industrial metal will remain strong after record imports in December.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange lost 1.1 percent to $7,659 a tonne by 0118 GMT, reversing gains from the previous session.
Rio, Fortescue halt iron ore loading as cyclone nears
SYDNEY, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group on Wednesday suspended iron ore loading operations Australia ahead of a cyclone bearing down on the west Australia coast.
Mines located inland from the coastline were experiencing heavy rainfall as Category 1 Cyclone Heidi made its way toward land but were so far still operating, according to the companies.
Italy unions want Alcoa to keep Portovesme working
MILAN, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Italian labour unions want to convince U.S. aluminium giant Alcoa Inc to keep operating its Portovesme smelter on the island of Sardinia after the company announced the plant would be closed to cut costs, a senior union official told Reuters.
"We should develop a strategy aimed at avoiding job cuts and at convincing Alcoa to stay at Portovesme," Fabio Enne, general secretary of the Cisl trade union for Sardinia's region of Sulcis-Iglesiente, said on Tuesday after a meeting between Alcoa management, union representatives and industrial association Confindustria.
Venezuela 2011 iron ore output up 21 pct, but below capacity
CARACAS, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Venezuela boosted iron ore output to 17 million tonnes in 2011, up 21 percent from a year earlier, the country's primary iron producer Ferrominera Orinoco said, a figure still far short of its 25-million-tonne annual capacity.
The nation's state-run basic industries, which also include aluminum and steel, are producing well below capacity due to low investment, outdated technology, and a 2010 electricity crisis that the country never fully resolved.
Financing spurs China Dec copper imports to record high
HONG KONG, Jan 10 (Reuters) - China's copper imports hit a record high in December as arbitrage and financing opportunities burnished the metal's appeal, but imports may be weaker from now to June as the Lunar New Year holidays and slower manufacturing weaken demand.
China is the world's largest copper consumer, and monthly import figures have been climbing since June 2011.
STEEL NEWS: German crude steel output seen flat in 2012
FRANKFURT, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Germany's crude steel output will probably remain almost flat this year as the euro zone debt crisis starts to affect the economy of Europe's largest steelmaker, and the risk of rising raw material prices weighs, a German industry body said.
The German Steel Federation said crude steel production last year rose 1 percent to 44.3 million tonnes, affected by a summer dip in demand that deepened into a second-half slump that forced capacity cuts in steel mills.
Italy's steel exports up, lag import volumes
MILAN, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Steel exports from Italy, the European Union's second-biggest producer after Germany, rose 12.7 percent year on year to 14.395 million tonnes in the first 10 months of 2011, but lagged behind import volumes, according to industry body Federacciai.
Italy's export-focused steel industry has come under growing pressure from non-EU rivals in the past few years and, facing modest demand on core markets, needs to rethink its product range and consolidate, analysts say.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold edges up as Europe uncertainty supports
SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Gold inched up to flirt with a key resistance level, shrugging off a stronger dollar, as persistent uncertainties on the euro zone debt crisis lured investors to the safety of bullion.
"While the dollar may not see a significant correction soon, and is likely to continue to gain against the euro as the eurozone crisis persists, the negative effects of a stronger dollar on gold are likely to be largely diminished in 2012, allowing the bullish macro drivers to dictate price action once again," Societe Generale said in a research note.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Shares rise but euro struggles on funding worries
TOKYO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Asian shares hit a month-high, buoyed by optimism about the world's top two economies, but the euro struggled on concerns over euro zone sovereign funding ahead of key auctions.
"It's got a little bit overdone over the past couple of days, particularly in Shanghai Composite, but the pullback today is really pretty small, so I think it is technical in terms of the market getting a little bit overbought," said Guy Stear, head of research with Societe Generale in Hong Kong.
CHART OF THE DAY: SHANGHAI COPPER - 24 HRS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 
BEYOND THE HEADLINES: Canadian mining projects move ahead in Argentina
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Argentina expects two Canadian miners, Pan American Silver and Goldcorp, to start construction on sizeable projects over the next six months as the sector continues to expand, the country's mining secretary said on Tuesday.
High metals prices and legal reforms in the 1990s have spurred rapid growth in Argentina's mining industry since 2003, although it still lags far behind regional heavyweights such as Chile and Peru.
EU ministers plan Iran oil embargo, IAEA team to visit
TEHRAN/VIENNA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Europe and Japan moved ahead on Tuesday in planning for punitive cuts in oil imports from Iran, where a senior official dismissed Western anger at news Tehran is enriching uranium deep underground as cover for ulterior motives.
A day after Iran confirmed the start of enrichment at a mountain bunker near the holy city of Qom - and sentenced an American to death for spying - the European Union brought forward a ministerial meeting that is likely to match new U.S. measures to hamper Iran's oil exports.
Copper vulnerable to price spikes due to shorts
LONDON/NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Copper is more vulnerable to price spikes than other metals because of a large buildup of short positions by money managers, which could lead to short-covering rallies on a change in market sentiment.
Money managers have been betting on falling copper prices for 16 straight weeks, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which showed net short positions in the week to Jan. 6 at 2,007 lots.
New position limits roil wheat spreads
CHICAGO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Two Deutsche Bank-backed commodity funds could soon sell off their Minneapolis wheat contracts and double their holdings in Chicago as position limits are increased, a move that has roiled the wheat price spreads between the two markets.
The traditional price premium for the high-protein spring wheat traded in Minneapolis over the more liquid but lower-grade soft red winter wheat traded in Chicago has eroded by about 10 percent since Thursday, accelerating a trend in place since mid-November.
S.Korea, China battle to be king of the LNG shipyard
SEOUL/SINGAPORE, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The battle between South Korea and China to own Gaztransport & Technigaz, a firm that develops systems for storing liquefied natural gas (LNG) on ships, could ultimately be one of survival for Korean shipbuilders after the country lost most of its market share in the building of standard ships to China.
South Korean shipbuilders could take the unprecedented step of joining forces to compete against China in acquiring the French firm, with the winner poised to dominate the lucrative LNG carrier market for years.
China's commodities import robust despite ebbing demand
SHANGHAI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - China's imports of crude oil and key industrial commodities proved resilient in December, with copper shipments bucking expectations and rising about 13 percent on the month to a record high.
But analysts said the headline numbers did not reflect actual consumption, with the figures likely distorted by a rush to stock up ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in January, fulfillment of term contracts and use of copper as a financing tool.
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