To download the full report (PDF document) please click here SPECIAL PDF REPORT - WANG TAO TECH ANALYSIS Q1 PDF: Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao expects spot gold's medium-trend downtrend that started at the Sept. 6, 2011 high of $1,920.30 to continue through the first quarter of the year, pushing prices down to $1,417 per ounce over the period. Falls also lie in store for base metals, Wang Tao added.
For a PDF of his first-quarter technical analyses on commodities and energy prices, please click here COLUMN: Wheat vs corn, the spread to watch: Maguire --Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-- CHICAGO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - If 2011 was the year in which many major agricultural commodities moved to stand out in absolute terms by scaling multi-year or record price highs, 2012 looks set to be defined more by relative strength or weakness, especially in the grains and oilseeds arena where crop prices have retreated substantially from 2011's peaks.
The most widely-tracked relational trade will likely be corn versus soybeans, as those crops wage an acreage battle going in to the U.S. spring planting season. But a more interesting and lively tussle may emerge between wheat and corn, especially in the July futures contracts which capture the timeslot for potentially strong domestic and global feed demand interest.
Exports to bring no relief for US gas producers: Kemp --John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. gas producers hoping exports will bring some relief from intense downward pressure on U.S. gas prices look set to be disappointed.
Large-scale exports could throw a lifeline to beleaguered domestic producers struggling with prices that recently slumped below $3 per million British thermal units as a result of the glut of fresh supplies accompanying the shale revolution.
Aluminium cutbacks? It's all about China: Andy Home 
--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. heavyweight Alcoa gave the aluminium market a New Year fillip with its Jan. 6 announcement that it would cut capacity by 12 percent in response to slumping prices.
The baton has been taken up on Wednesday by Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro , which said it will cut production at its Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia. ENERGY: Brent firms as tensions between Iran, West mount
SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Brent stayed near $113 on worries about supply disruption from Nigeria and Iran which offset pressure from a high inventory build and persisting eurozone debt woes.
"Clearly, there are reasons for the market to be jittery," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. Asia solar stocks surge on strong demand hopes
HONG KONG, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Asian solar stocks on Thursday echoed a rally by their U.S. peers, with some surging as much as 20 percent on signs that prices for solar energy components are stabilising.
In Hong Kong, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd was up 13.2 percent, Trony Solar Holdings Co Ltd rose 8.3 percent, Apollo Solar Energy Technology Holdings Ltd firmed 3.5 percent and Solargiga Energy Holdings Ltd climbed 13.2 percent.
Japan to reduce Iran oil imports for US sanctions
TOKYO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Japan's finance minister pledged after talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday to steadily reduce oil imports from Iran in support of U.S. sanctions on Tehran over its disputed nuclear programme. Geithner welcomed Tokyo's cooperation, which could be an encouraging sign for U.S. foreign policy after China, a big buyer of Iranian crude, rebuffed U.S. appeals to starve Iran of much-needed revenue from oil sales.
Petrobras reserves up 2.7 pct in 2011
RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Brazilian state-owned oil giant Petrobras said on Wednesday that its proven reserves of oil and gas increased 2.7 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year.
The company said in a securities filling that its proven reserves of oil and gas reached 16.41 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of December, based on the criteria of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Japan eyes significant cut in Iran crude imports -media
TOKYO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Japanese government has started coordinating with the domestic oil industry on significantly cutting crude imports from Iran, aiming to secure a waiver for Japanese banks from U.S. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, the Yomiuri newspaper said on Thursday.
Tokyo is unlikely to ban Iranian oil imports completely as it is difficult to quickly secure alternatives, with Iran accounting for about 9 percent of total imports, and the size of the reduction will be decided based on consultations with the United States, the paper said without citing sources.
CPS Energy to partner with OCI Solar Power
HOUSTON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - CPS Energy of San Antonio, the largest power and gas municipal utility in the nation, is negotiating with OCI Solar Power to develop 400 megawatts of solar power over the next five years as part of a larger economic development effort, officials said on Wednesday.
OCI Solar said it will relocate its headquarters from Atlanta to San Antonio, establis h an engineering and operations center and work to bring solar manufacturing facilities to the area as it develops solar farms totaling 400 MW, enough to serve about 24,000 typical Texas homes.
AGRICULTURE: Soy up after losses; corn, wheat firm ahead of US report
SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Chicago soy edged higher , recouping some of the previous session's deep losses, while corn and wheat firmed ahead of a key U.S. report on global demand and supply of agricultural commodities.
"Rains in Argentina were probably little better than some of the pessimistic forecasts which led to weakness in soybean prices overnight," said Victor Thianpiriya, agricultural commodity strategist at ANZ. China to issue extra 1.1 mln T cotton import quota for 2012 -website
BEIJING, Jan 12 (Reuters) - China will soon issue another 1.1 million tonne cotton import quota for 2012, an industry website reported on Thursday, citing industry sources.
The extra quota will be subject to a sliding tariff ranging from 5 percent to 40 percent, according to a report published on www.cottonchina.org, a website run by Cotlook Ltd, the China Cotton Association and the China National Cotton Exchange.
Philippines says likely hit 2011 farm output goal
MANILA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Philippines' farm output growth in 2011 may have hit a government target of 3-3.5 percent, helped by favourable weather early in the year that boosted crop harvests led by rice, corn and sugar, the agriculture minister said on Thursday.
Rice output would have been better if not for a series of typhoons in the second half, Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala told reporters.
Glyphosate-resistant weed spreads to Canada crop belt
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Jan 11 (Reuters) - A weed resistant to a widely used chemical to protect crops has spread for the first time to Western Canada, the country's grain and canola belt.
Kochia weed turned up in three fields in Southern Alberta last August, despite the use of glyphosate, and Canadian government scientists have now confirmed that it is resistant to the farm chemical, seed company Monsanto Canada said on Wednesday.
Rains come but Argentine farmers say need more
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Rains hit parts of Argentina's grains belt early Wednesday, moistening fields parched by drought, but farmers said the showers came to late to revive corn crops and clamored for government aid.
Weeks of dryness have shrunk Argentina's corn exporting capacity, which the world was counting on to replenish supplies after a disappointing U.S. harvest. The South American country is also a major soy producer.
Ghana cocoa buys hit 556,847 T by Dec 29 -Cocobod
ACCRA, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Cocoa purchases declared to Ghana's Cocobod reached 556,847 tonnes by Dec. 29 since the start of the 2011/2012 harvest season on Oct. 14, data from the industry regulator showed on Wednesday.
The figures, which covered the first 11 weeks of the 2011/12 main crop, were up 7.3 percent over the first 11 weeks of last season, according to the data seen by Reuters.
BASE METALS: Copper steady, eyes euro zone funding stress
SHANGHAI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - And, sendCopper was flat a day after hitting its highest level in a month, as markets turned cautious ahead of a Spanish debt auction and as Chinese buying wound down before the Lunar New Year holidays.
"The demand picture here in China is quite mixed. We have heard that some of the home appliance makers are reporting very weak order books in January and February and will start their holidays from next week," she said. Cyclone batters Australian iron ore shipping zone
SYDNEY, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Tropical cyclone Heidi lashed the west Australian coast on Thursday packing winds up to 120 km per hour (75 mph), forcing seaside residents to flee rising tidewaters and closing the world's biggest iron ore export terminals. Traders predicted the storm, coupled with weather-related delays in Brazil this week, could support iron ore prices, which have been flat over the past two days.
Vale halts Brazil iron ore shipments due to rains
RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The world's No. 1 iron ore exporter Vale said on Wednesday it halted some iron ore shipments from Brazil due to heavy seasonal rainfall that has killed dozens of people and made mining hazardous.
The Brazilian miner said it will lose an estimated 2 million tonnes of ore shipments, the equivalent of nearly 1 percent of its annual output, due to the rains that have affected its operations in the southeastern region of the country.
BNP sees average 2012 metal prices below 2011 mean
Jan 11 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas said on Wednesday it expected the average price of all base metals to be lower in 2012 than in 2011, as economic and financial uncertainty will keep weighing on prices for much of the first quarter of the year.
"But 2012 averages should all be higher than current prices and most metals are likely to make further progress in 2013," BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs said in a note.
Iceland power outage hits aluminum smelters
Jan 11 (Reuters) - Century Aluminum Co said on Wednesday that extreme weather knocked out power to its smelter in Iceland and it is in the process of resuming full operations.
The outage lasted about three hours on Tuesday and power was fully restored after about 12 hours, the California-based company said.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold steady as Spain auction, ECB meeting loom
SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on concerns about the euro zone debt crisis ahead of Spain's bond auction and an European Central Bank meeting, as robust buying from China and India also supported sentiment.
"The dollar and gold are both good buys at the moment as the markets watches the situation in Europe," said an official at a large bullion house in Tokyo, adding that the close correlation between the euro and gold at the end of 2011 has already broken.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Shares subdued as Spain auction puts investors on edge
TOKYO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued and the euro hovered near a 16-month low as worries about euro zone sovereign funding kept investors risk-averse ahead of a Spanish debt sale that is seen as a key test of confidence.
"The month-on-month CPI was lower than the same month in the past few years. That means inflation is no longer a main concern for policymakers," said Zhiwei Zhang, economist at Nomura in Hong Kong. "China is more worried about an economic slowdown now and will continue the policy easing cycle."
CHART OF THE DAY: SHANGHAI COPPER - 24 HRS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 
BEYOND THE HEADLINES: US Republicans move to control Keystone approval
WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Congressional Republicans, who are urging President Barack Obama to give a permit to the Canada-to-Texas Keystone XL oil pipeline project, are working on a plan to take the reins of approval from the president should the White House say no.
Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, a state counting on TransCanada Corp's pipeline to help move its newfound bounty of shale oil, is drafting contingency legislation that would see Congress green-light the project, an aide told Reuters.
At least 2 serious suitors eye LME -source
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - At least two serious potential bidders have emerged so far for the London Metal Exchange (LME) from 15 suitors who expressed interest in the world's biggest metals marketplace, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday.
The LME sent non-disclosure agreements (NDA) to potential bidders last month, which had to be signed to gain access to the exchange's sensitive financial data. The source said 15 NDAs had been sent.
Trafigura sees chance of oil spike above $130
GENEVA, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices will average between $115-120 a barrel this year, the highest annual level on record, and could briefly spike above $130 if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the chief economist for trading house Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] told Reuters.
Most commodity markets are set to finish this year higher than they started as monetary easing will spur growth in emerging markets, Trafigura's Alan Williamson said, but a thin oil supply buffer means it could surge sooner and faster than the rest of the asset class.
Canadian mining projects move ahead in Argentina
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Argentina expects two Canadian miners, Pan American Silver and Goldcorp, to start construction on sizeable projects over the next six months as the sector continues to expand, the country's mining secretary said on Tuesday.
High metals prices and legal reforms in the 1990s have spurred rapid growth in Argentina's mining industry since 2003, although it still lags far behind regional heavyweights such as Chile and Peru.
| |
No comments:
Post a Comment