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SPECIAL PDF REPORT - WANG TAO TECH ANALYSIS Q1 PDF: Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao expects spot gold's medium-trend downtrend that started at the Sept. 6, 2011 high of $1,920.30 to continue through the first quarter of the year, pushing prices down to $1,417 per ounce over the period. Falls also lie in store for base metals, Wang Tao added.
For a PDF of his first-quarter technical analyses on commodities and energy prices, please click here COLUMN: Frac factories upend the economics of US gas: John Kemp
 --John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Warm weather across the north-eastern United States and soaring output from fracked oil and gas fields have pushed gas prices down to some of the lowest levels for a decade, piling pressure on beleaguered domestic gas producers.
Front-month gas futures prices slumped 5.7 percent yesterday, to $2.77 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices have fallen almost continuously since last summer and are now down nearly 45 percent since June 2011. The US shale oil revolution has only just begun-Campbell --Robert Campbell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
DENVER, Jan 12 (Reuters) - If independent U.S. oil producers are right, last year was only a taste of the transformation that is coming to America's oil patch.
Crude oil produced from "tight sands" and oil shales was instrumental in reversing the long decline of U.S. crude output. Some optimists are already forecasting huge increases by 2015, perhaps taking U.S. oil production up by some 2 million barrels per day to 8 million bpd by then. Bullish China oil demand depends on storage: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - There appears to be an emerging consensus that China's oil demand will accelerate in 2012 compared to last year, with consumption slated to jump by more than half a million barrels a day.
Such an increase would take China's crude demand to around 9.5 million barrels a day. ENERGY:
Brent rises above $111.50 on supply fears; debt sales support
SINGAPORE, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $111.50 a barrel, boosted by worries over supply disruption from Nigeria, while easing fears on the euro zone debt crisis after positive demand in Spanish and Italian debt sales supported sentiment.
"Iran is perhaps a longer-term issue, meaning that it is not going to cause an immediate supply disruption," said Victor Shum of energy consulting firm Purvin & Gertz. Inpex approves $34 bln Ichthys LNG project in Australia
TOKYO/PERTH, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Japan's Inpex Corp gave the go-ahead on Friday for a $34 billion liquefied natural gas export project that will make Australia the world's top exporter of the fuel by 2017, overtaking Qatar.
Inpex said the cost of the giant Ichthys project was higher than estimated by its partner, French energy company Total , and also 70 percent above initial figures calculated in 2008 because it now has more reliable information from the front-end engineering design (FEED).
Japan finmin: no uncertainty on Iranian oil policy
TOKYO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Japan's finance minister said on Friday that there is no confusion over the government's policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in support of U.S. sanctions, rejecting suggestions from the cabinet's top spokesman that Japan isn't committed to take such steps.
Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Thursday in a joint press conference with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that Japan would take concrete steps to reduce oil imports from Iran as the U.S. tries to choke off oil revenue to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons.
India to buy Iran oil despite US sanctions -minister
NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - India will keep doing business with Tehran and sees no reason to seek a waiver from the United States that would protect buyers of Iranian oil from a fresh round of sanctions, a senior Indian cabinet minister said on Thursday.
"Why should we seek waiver from the U.S.? We have done business with Iran earlier and will continue to do business," the minister, who has knowledge of the matter but did not want to be named as the issue is confidential, told Reuters.
US review on Keystone pipeline permitting out soon
WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. "special review" of the State Department's handling of permitting for the Canada-to-Texas Keystone XL oil pipeline is nearly complete and will likely be released in coming weeks, a federal government source said on Thursday.
The timing could mean the results of the review by the State Department's internal watchdog are made public before President Barack Obama is slated to decide whether to allow a permit for for the $7 billion project, or rule it not in the national interest.
Conoco reports process upset, startup at Borger refinery
Jan 12 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips' on Thursday reported that a process upset and startup caused emissions at its 146,000 barrel-per-day joint venture refinery in Borger, Texas, according to a filing with state pollution regulators.
The startup would take place from Jan. 12 to Jan. 15, the filing with Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said. It did not specify which units were starting up.
AGRICULTURE:
GRAINS-US corn at 3-week low on supply surprise, soy rebounds
SINGAPORE, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Chicago corn slid to a three-week low , deepening losses after falling by its daily limit in the last session, while wheat traded near a four-week low, pressured by a U.S. forecast of higher-than-expected global supplies.
"I think there is upside potential in corn as the market looks oversold, there could be some bargain hunting," said Lynette Tan, analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore. Peru coffee exports hit record $1.55 bln in 2011
LIMA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Peru reached a record $1.55 billion in 2011, up from the $860 million exported in 2010, the country's national council of coffee producers said on Thursday.
The Andean country's production increased by 29 percent to 6.8 million 46-kg bags of coffee in 2011 as investments in fertilizer and plantation management for small-scale farmers paid off, Council President Cesar Rivas Pena said.
More rain seen for drought-hit Argentine grains
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Rains are expected in the northern part of Argentina's grains belt over the week ahead as temperatures fall, relieving soy and corn crops racked by drought, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Thursday.
Weeks of dryness have toasted grains fields in the world's No. 3 soybean- and No. 2 corn-exporting country, prompting crop estimate cuts and denting hopes that Argentina could replenish corn supplies depleted by a lacklustre U.S. harvest.
Brazil sugar output down 7 pct this season
BRASILIA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Sugar output in Brazil's main center-south cane region reached 31.2 million tonnes from the start of the season to Jan. 1, down 7 percent from this time a year ago, the sugar cane industry association Unica said on Thursday.
Brazil's center-south cane crush has now all but finished and only a handful of mills are still operating, pending the start of the next harvest around March, which some analysts hope will expand output after this season's weather-battered crop.
Chinese cotton imports offset bearish USDA report
Jan 12 (Reuters) - China's cotton imports soared in December and the country will soon issue another import quota of 1.1 million tonnes (5 million 480-lb bales), offsetting the bearish impact of a U.S. crop report.
The U.S. Agriculture Department's monthly supply/demand report on Thursday raised world 2011/12 end-of-season cotton stocks to 58.35 million bales from 57.67 million.
BASE METALS:
London copper slips, China buys slow before break
SHANGHAI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - London copper slipped in Asian trading, snapping three days of gains, as buying by Chinese consumers of the industrial metal slowed before the start of the week-long Lunar New Year holidays.
"Maybe European debt issues will exacerbate copper during the Lunar new year, so consumers are not purchasing a lot of cathode. They are very cautious, they will just take profits," Qu said. Xstrata unit says to appeal Philippines' denial of mine permit
MANILA, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Global miner Xstrata Plc's Philippine unit said on Friday it was "extremely disappointed" with a government decision not to clear for now its planned $5.9 billion copper-gold Tampakan project, potentially the biggest in Southeast Asia.
Sagittarius Mines Inc (SMI), operator of the Tampakan project and partly owned by Australian miner Indophil Resources NL , will appeal to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to reconsider its decision, which it said contradicted the government's earlier stance that the national law was superior to local policies.
LME CEO firm on fee hike, sale opposition hardens
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) CEO Martin Abbott held firm on a decision to hike trading fees that has hardened members' opposition to the potential sale of the world's top metals marketplace.
High-level members of the 130-year-old exchange say that the trading fee hike announced last month is window dressing to enhance the LME's attractiveness for potential suitors by steeply raising revenues.
Vale shares fall as rains halt some Brazil shipments
SAO PAULO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Shares of Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer, seesawed on Thursday as traders waited for more news about the company's decision to halt some iron ore shipments from Brazil.
Vale said late on Wednesday that heavy rain "created serious challenges to operations" in the state of Minas Gerais, the source of more than half its iron ore output. Rains tend to slow mining due to the risk of mudslides and accidents at open pit operations.
Poland's controversial mining tax gets key backing
WARSAW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A key government committee in Poland has backed a proposed new mining tax after several ministries clashed over the controversial levy aimed at raising 1.8 billion zlotys ($511 million) for state coffers this year.
The bill, approved by the committee that prepares government legislation, must now receive final clearance from the government and parliament.
PRECIOUS METALS: PRECIOUS-Gold falls on easing euro zone fears
SINGAPORE, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased as fears about the health of the global economy abated after successful debt sales by Spain and Italy encouraged investors to put their money in riskier assets.
"The recent headlines from the euro zone and the United States have not offered signs of essential change on the fundamentals of those economies," said Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures. Osisko produces 200,137 ounces of gold in 2011
Jan 12 - Osisko Mining Corp , which last year started production at its flagship Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec, said it produced 200,137 ounces of gold in 2011. Malartic, the company's only operating mine, is located in western Quebec. With more than 10 million ounces in proven and probable reserves, it is one of Canada's largest gold mines.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Shares gain as strong debt sales ease risk aversion
TOKYO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a one-month high and the euro clung near its strongest in a week as strong demand in Spanish and Italian debt sales tempered risk aversion ahead of another auction from Rome later in the day.
"The tide may turn around soon from extreme pessimism seen last year as people become less convinced the euro zone debt crisis would devastate global growth and wonder if it isn't time to start thinking positively," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager with Astramax Co. in Tokyo.
CHART OF THE DAY: SHANGHAI COPPER - 24 HRS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 
BEYOND THE HEADLINES: Vale sees little effect to iron ore market from Brazil rains
Jan 12 (Reuters) - Brazilian iron ore giant Vale said the heavy rains that prompted it to cut production and declare force majeure this week will have "minimal" effects on world iron ore supply, prices and the company's revenue.
Vale has lost 2 million tons of production due to heavy rains in Brazil's southeast since around December 25, or less than 1 percent of normal annual production of 300 million metric tons. US Gold Corp sees gold price over $2,000 this year
NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Gold Corp Chief Executive Rob McEwen said he expects global financial worries to push gold prices above $2,000 an ounce this year and even higher in the next few years.
He also said major gold mining companies should increase dividends to attract investors. Shareholders currently are not getting the kind of returns they should expect with the gold price so high, he added. India Dec palm oil imports to fall; soyoil up
NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - India's palm oil imports are likely to decline in December over the previous month as domestic oilseeds crushing peaked, but the fall is expected to reverse next month as local supplies run out, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
The other reasons for the fall are a weak rupee that has made imports costlier and a tendency of palm oil to solidify at lower temperatures. It is winter in India now. | |
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