Kumaresan Selvaraj pillai


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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Fundamental Oil

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Tuesday January 3 , 2012 15:11 GMT
NewsCrude above $102.00 on improved manufacturing data

Previous

Forecast

Analysis

Oil prices continued to move upwards today while risk appetite improved following the improved manufacturing data, which increased demand on the higher yielding assets and pushed the USD considerably to the downside and commodities up, especially as tensions between Iran and the US persist.

As Iran continues to threaten closing Strait of Hormuz and stop its oil exports, more upside pressures are put on oil prices, and combined with the improved appetite for risk, oil headed with a strong momentum to the upside surpassing the $102.00 per barrel level.

In China the non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.3 in Dec. from 49 in Nov., while Switzerland the PMI manufacturing for Dec. rose to 50.7 from 44.8 previous, adding to evidence the global economy is strengthening, which could increase demand on crude oil.

In the US the ISM manufacturing rose today to 53.9 from 52.7 in Nov, while in UK the PMI manufacturing for Dec. rose to 49.6 from 47.7 previous, and in Germany the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in Dec. to 6.8% from the precious 6.9%

The USD is moving with bearish momentum since this morning around the 79.65 level, while the yen is strengthening trading around the 76.65 level. The euro also rose today trading as of this writing around the 1.3045, while the pound is trading with gains around the 1.5615 level. 

Crude oil rose sharply today from the lowest of $99.64 per barrel to the highest of $102.69 per barrel level. As of this writing crude oil is trading around the $102.50 per barrel level. Other commodities also rose where gold is trading as of this writing with bullish momentum around the $1597.50 level.



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