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Monday, September 30, 2013

Gold gains as US Govt shutdown begins, MCX Gold slightly down

 

  01 OCT 2013  
 
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 NEWS    
  01 OCT 2013  
Gold gains as US Govt shutdown begins, MCX Gold slightly down
India Crude Oil futures bearish on weak global cues, US Govt shutdown concerns
India Copper futures sideways to bullish, traders may buy near 467
MCX Gold sideways to bullish amid US shutdown concerns
 
 
 
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Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring GlaxoSmithKline, HomeServe and Magnolia Petroleum


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 30th September 2013

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The Markets

At the Conservative party conference in Manchester Chancellor George Osborne said that he wants to run a budget surplus during the next Parliament in a bid to "fix the roof when the sun shines". This is by no means an easy task, with the government having balanced the books only seven times during the past 50 years, the last time in 2001. Osborne also announce a raft of other plans including the freezing of fuel duty for the rest of the current parliament and work placements for the long-term unemployed in return for benefits.

Elsewhere, ahead of the upcoming IPO of Royal Mail the Labour Party said it would not promise to renationalise the organisation should it regain power in 2015. Instead, according to shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna, Royal Mail would be required to deliver services through the Post Office beyond 2022, when the current agreement between the two expires. The business of the Post Office was separated from Royal Mail in April 2012, however the two firms have entered into a long-term distribution agreement under which the Post Office sells Royal Mail postage stamps and retail products to customers on behalf of Royal Mail. The Post Office branches also serve as collection points for letters and parcels for Royal Mail customers. Labour would also keep the the universal service obligation, which guarantees that letters can be sent anywhere in the UK for the same price, beyond 2015.

UK-Analyst has been made aware that an unregulated financial website today suggested that the Post Office would be included as part of the Royal Mail IPO. We would like to reiterate that the Post Office is NOT being included as part of the upcoming Royal Mail share offer. To download our highly researched, independent and detailed analysis of the IPO, download our special report - Privatising the Queen's Head - by CLICKING HERE.

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In London the FTSE 100 closed down by 50.44 points at 6,462.22 and the FTSE 250 dropped by 16.70 points to 14,908.18. The FTSE All-Share was down by 24.42 points at 3,443.85 while the FTSE AIM Index finished down by 3.46 points at 793.26.

Blue Chips

Power supplier SSE (SSE) moved to reassure investors that it remains on course to achieve its principal financial objective for 2013/14 - an increase of more than RPI inflation in the dividend payable to shareholders - in the wake of Ed Miliband's reckless price controls announcement at last week's Labour Party conference. The firm said that adjusted profit before tax for the six months to 30th September 2013 is expected to be lower than it was in the same six months in 2012. It also expects to report that its Retail segment has been loss-making during the period, reflecting higher wholesale gas costs and the heightened impact of fixed distribution and other costs, which themselves were rising, during the spring and summer period of lower energy consumption. The Wholesale and Networks segments are, however, expected to have been profitable during the six months. While noting an "intensifying political debate", SSE shares rose by 6p to 1,474p.

Pharmaceuticals heavyweight GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) clinched the 700 million pound sale of its thrombosis drug brands and a related factory to Aspen Pharmacare, which follows a series of prior disposals aimed at refocusing the firm towards growth products. The divestment to South Africa's biggest generic drug maker, which was flagged by GSK in June, involves the Arixtra and Fraxiparine brands, whose worldwide sales are in decline and would otherwise have dragged on GSK's growth at a time when new drugs are set to reach the market. GSK, which retains an interest in the aforementioned products through its 18.6% stake in Aspen, said that the sale proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes. GSK shares slipped by 11p to 1,557p.

Standard Life (SL.) announced that its wealth management business Standard Life Wealth has acquired rival Newton Private Clients for an undisclosed amount. Standard Life Wealth, which has 130 staff across four offices, says the deal broadens its investment capability through the complementary but distinct investment style of Newton Private Clients and widens geographical reach. The transaction creates a private client wealth manager with 5.5 billion pounds of assets under management and 4,500 high net worth and 'ultra-high net worth' clients. The combined business will operate under the Standard Life Wealth brand. Standard Life shares dipped by 6.1p to 345.4p.

Mid Caps

Precision instruments specialist Spectris (SXS) has agreed to buy NanoSight, a manufacturer of instruments for the scientific analysis of nanoparticles, for a debt and cash-free net consideration of 15 million pounds, to be funded from existing cash and bank facilities. The acquired business will become part of the Materials Analysis segment and will be integrated into the Malvern Instruments arm. NanoSight's novel Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis technology provides high resolution quantitative analysis of nano-particulate materials which is said to be highly complementary to Malvern's existing measurement capabilities. Management also expect the acquisition to provide new opportunities through the combination of both companies' technologies, customer support capabilities and distribution channels. Spectris shares finished 3p lower at 2,206p.

Shares in engineering firm Keller Group (KLR) rallied by 37p to 1,039p after it bagged a contract for the construction of a diaphragm wall and bored and secant piles, worth 33 million pounds. Under the terms of the deal, the group will construct the foundation of a new Sengkang hospital project for the Singapore Ministry of Health, which will create an integrated general hospital, community hospital and specialist outpatient facilities, catering for more than 700,000 residents in the region. Keller's work is expected to begin in October and to complete in the third quarter of 2014. The contract win is the largest award to date for the Resource Piling business.

Emergency call out firm HomeServe (HSV) said its outlook for the full year remains unchanged, helped by growth at its International business and as its UK business stabilises. The group, which insures customers against burst pipes and broken boilers, said earnings in the first half of the full year 2014 are expected to be broadly in line with last year's 25.6 million pounds, albeit with the usual second-half weighting. The firm said UK customer numbers at 30th September 2013 will be around 2.2 million and reiterated its confidence of achieving full-year targets of 0.2 million gross new customers, a retention rate of over 80% and stabilising year end customer numbers at 1.9 million. In the US customer numbers in the first half of the year are expected to be around 20% higher than the same period in FY2013 and it remains on track to deliver strong growth in US operating profit for the full year. Meanwhile in France, customer and policy numbers remain stable and it continues to seek further partnerships in the country. Spain's Reparalia is expected to show a small operating profit in the first half compared to last year's loss after growth in customer numbers. Homeserve shares fell by 1p to 257p.

Small Caps

Shares in pawn broker Albemarle & Bond (ABM) plunged by 50.5p to 74.5p after it announced a 35 million pounds rights issue at 50p per share. The firm has suffered from the fall in the gold price since its last trading update in April, causing significant uncertainty for profits in the current financial year. In response the firm has closed 33 unprofitable pop-up gold buying stores and has been in active discussions with its lending banks over covenants on its 65 million pound facilities. A further update is expected in the next two days. Since April the gold price has fallen by around 16% to c.$1,328 an once, well short of the $2,000 level which some financial market commentators were expecting by now.

Science in Sport (SIS), the sports nutrition company which recently demerged from AIM listed Provexis, said that revenues should be up by 23% at 3.95 million pounds for the six months to September. Growth has been driven by rising sales of isotonic gels, food bars and hydration tablets, as the firm has continued to invest in product innovation, sales and marketing. In addition, pre-tax profits for the period are expected to be in line with management expectations. The shares were flat at 73.5p.

The Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP) share price fell by 0.05p to 2.75p after the firm announced an operations update across its portfolio of interests in the US. Highlights included an initial production rate of 549 barrels of oil per day from the JKL1-08H well in Oklahoma, in which Magnolia has a 1.719% interest. The firm's total daily production stood at 214 boepd as at 1st August. Magnolia currently has 50 new wells under development and continues to receive multiple well proposals across its 13,500 net mineral acres held in US onshore formations.

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A trading update from TV producer DCD Media (DCD) revealed that the firm will not be producing another series of the hit TV show Bridezillas. This comes after American digital cable and satellite television WE tv did not commission an 11th series of the show. WIth the programme contributing significantly to revenues in recent year the firm expects that if not replaced by new productions revenues will be down substantially in 2014. DCD also announced an operating loss of 1.1 million pounds for the six months to June. The shares plunged by 82.5p to 710p.

Also on the fall were shares in governance, risk and compliance software provider Access Intelligence (ACC) after the firm announced a profits warning. While revenues for the year to November are expected to be up by 5% at 8.4 million pounds, this is lower than market expectations. This was caused by weaker trading in one of the firm's (un-named) divisions, and is expected to result in EBITDA for the year being lower than market expectations but ahead of the previous year. Access Intelligence shares fell by 0.125p to 2.625p.

Incadea (INCA), the provider of enterprise software and services to the global automotive dealership industry, has signed a 1.3 million euro agreement with an un-named German car manufacturer for a global project. Under the agreement, incadea will roll out a new implementation of incadea DMS to the German car manufacturer's dealer network in Europe, to support the car manufacturer's innovative new sales strategy. However, the shares fell by 13p to 109p after the company announced that EBITDA fell by 1.1 million euros to 0.6 million euros in the six moths to June. This was blamed on Increased investment in pre-sales activity supporting significant contract opportunities for H2, which are already well progressed.

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| 09.30.13 | Board must ponder Dimon's tenure at JPMorgan

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September 30, 2013
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Today's Top Stories

  1. More regulatory angst over physical commodities and banks
  2. Big winner from the crisis: Wells Fargo
  3. Star witness on the stand in Bank of America trial
  4. JPMorgan settlement talks intensify
  5. JPMorgan Chase executives spared personal charges


Editor's Corner: Board must ponder Dimon's tenure at JPMorgan

Also Noted: Spotlight On... Matt Taibbi on hedge funds
Ex-Barclays CEO buys more shares and much more...

News From the Fierce Network:
1. Goldman restructures struggling bond trading platform
2. SL-x to launch securities lending platform across Europe in Q4
3. Massive data scientist shortage looms



Editor's Corner

Board must ponder Dimon's tenure at JPMorgan

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The board of JPMorgan Chase has been quiet as the volume of enforcement action against the bank has approached shocking levels. We discussed recently what, if anything, it ought to do beyond sitting back and letting the historic settlement talks run its course.

It's doubtful at this point that the directors will do anything radical. CEO Jamie Dimon, after all, seems to be doing all he can to deal with the majority of the bank's woes with one massive settlement.

But people are starting to grumble just a bit about the fact that all this enforcement liability cropped up on his watch, wondering if there are appropriate consequences that the board should mete out. One pundit has gone so far as to call for Dimon's job.

A more entertaining look at the issue comes from Breakingviews, which published a mock memo from the bank's lead independent director to the two newest members of the board. "We need to talk about Jamie Dimon. The independent directors have periodically discussed whether our chairman and chief executive, effective as he has been over the years, is in danger of becoming a liability."

The memo goes on to recount the issues, noting that some of the enforcement liability the bank faces stems from Wachovia and Bear Stearns. It also raises an old issue: whether Dimon should be stripped of his chairmanship, an idea that shareholders soundly rejected earlier this year.

Performance can't be ignored. "The big picture suggests Jamie has done a far better job than his U.S. bank CEO peers. Unlike Bank of America's Ken Lewis, he didn't fritter cash away on deals that soon backfired. He has never lost the support of his lieutenants, as Phil Purcell did at Morgan Stanley eight years ago. Crucially, he got us out of risky businesses before the 2008 crisis and bulked up the balance sheet. JPMorgan never posted a quarterly loss and has delivered some of the best results in the industry. Even after our legal hits, we still surpassed a 10 percent return on equity in each of the last three years."

The memo ends up endorsing Dimon as both CEO and chairman.

Indeed, in the real world, it's hard to see Dimon losing his grip. As long as earnings remain robust, he'll be the guy in charge. But we may hear a lot of anger voiced at the next annual meeting. The chairmanship question might well be revived.

 

Read more about: Jamie Dimon, CEO
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Today's Top News

1. More regulatory angst over physical commodities and banks

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Should Goldman Sachs stay in physical commodities?

Once the controversy really got hot, JPMorgan wasted no time in announcing that it would exit the business of physically storing metals commodities. The issue is alive for other banks, notably Goldman Sachs, which has taken its lumps over its controversial Metro warehousing facility in Detroit.

Reuters notes that regulators have some big decisions to make. First, the Federal Reserve must decide whether former investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will "be allowed to continue owning and operating physical assets like oil pipelines and metal warehouses." Their right to own such facilities was granted via a 5-year grace period following their conversion to bank holding companies at the height of the financial crisis. That exemption recently expired.

The Fed is also expected soon to release the results of an internal review of a 2003 move to allow commercial banks to trade in physical commodities.

In addition, the Senate will hold another hearing on these issues soon.

Ahead of all this, Sifma has released a ringing endorsement of the view that banks should be able to operate in these areas. The report was authored by a team led by Daniel Yergin, a known authority in energy. The report "warned that without the ability to trade in the real raw materials themselves, banks would likely either stop providing financial services to certain areas or industries, or be forced to raise costs."

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: commodities, banks
back to top



2. Big winner from the crisis: Wells Fargo

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The knee-jerk conclusion in the few years following the financial crisis was that JPMorgan Chase was the big winner, emerging as the bank that benefitted the most. But recent events have shown just how premature that conclusion was. We've suggested that big winner in truth was Wells Fargo. And The Economist agrees. It notes that the bank headed into the crisis as one that served about half the consumer markets in the country; it emerged as a true national bank with a powerful franchise in mortgages.

The key to its success was savvy dealmaking, the ones that it didn't pursue as well as the ones that it did.

"In August 2008 it decided not to buy Countrywide, which had been the country's largest mortgage underwriter and, as Bank of America would discover, a sinkhole for bad loans and litigation. Two months later, as panic consumed the markets, it gazumped Citigroup to acquire Wachovia, which had been assembled over decades of costly and disruptive mergers. It may have been the best bank acquisition ever. In a single move, Wells doubled its branch count and added the eastern half of the country. As John Stumpf, the chief executive, likes to point out, a Wells branch or ATM is now within two miles of half of America's homes and half of its firms."

The bank was emerged as the dominant player in the residential mortgage market, but you have to wonder how it will respond to some dangerous headwinds, notably rising interest rates. The bank now is working hard to diversify its revenue stream, a push that will involves expanding in mid-market investment banking. 

For more:
- here's the article

 

Read more about: Wells Fargo, mortgages
back to top



3. Star witness on the stand in Bank of America trial

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Is Edward O'Donnell the next Sherry Hunt? Recall that the latter filed a False Claims Act against her employer, Citigroup, and ended up with $31 million windfall.

O'Donnell may have a tougher road to travel before he winds up with a massive paycheck. He is now embroiled in an on-going trial in New York, one pitting federal prosecutors against Bank of America over a Countrywide program that has come to be known as Hustle. The high Speed Swim Lane, or HSSL, was designed to produce more prime loans, as the subprime movement seemed to be fizzling. The HSSL loans, however, weren't much better apparently, as they caused Fannie and Freddie to suffer a gross loss of $848.2 million and a net loss of $131.2 million on loans that were materially defective, according to the prosecution, as noted by Reuters.

O'Donnell was an executive at Countrywide at the time and spoke out against the HSSL loans. He claims he was then marginalized. He filed suit under seal in February 2012 under the False Claims Act.

For him to cash in, the government will have to win. So he has a lot on the line personally as the trial continues. He'll be on the stand for quite a while as the key witness. It will be interesting to see how Bank of America lawyers try to undermine his credibility.

Currently, he works as an executive at Fannie Mae, which some might find ironic.

For more:
- here's the article

 

Read more about: Bank of America, Whistle Blower
back to top



4. JPMorgan settlement talks intensify

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The fact that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder are personally negotiating a sweeping settlement means a lot. Obviously, staff has come to some broad agreements, leaving the final, determinative details to the heavyweights. And they don't get much heavier than Dimon and Holder. 

So at this point, a deal would appear to be on the way. Both have a lot on the line, to be sure. Each faces the possibility that the world will look back on their efforts with disdain. We love to pronounce winners and losers after all, and each will be sure to spin the deal in a way that suggests the other didn't each his lunch.

All told, you have to think that this is a big win for the bank. The fact that it can end so much enforcement action with one fell swoop says a lot, though some on-going actions will likely survive. For the moment, it's unclear whether the high-profile action of the Eastern District of California will survive. At least one probe out of the Southern District of New York will remain active.

But most of the most consequential cases will be settled quickly, allowing the bank to move on.

It's hard to read the tea leaves, but it would appear that Dimon is not negotiating whether to admit to wrongdoing. That appears to have been resolved. My sense is that the bank will admit that it had oversight and compliance lapses.

The main issue, according to DealBook anyway, is the size of the settlement. It'll be huge no matter what.  

For more:
- here's the article

 

Read more about: settlement, Enforcement Action
back to top



5. JPMorgan Chase executives spared personal charges

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Critics of big banking practices have fumed for years that not a single top executive of a leading investment bank has been charged for their role in the financial crisis. The bitterness over this has been palpable. It certainly kicked up amid all the hoopla over the fifth anniversary of the Lehman Brothers implosion.

Now that JPMorgan Chase is negotiating to bring myriad enforcement actions to conclusion via one sweeping settlement, the issue has been revived. ProPublica, which has been tough on the bank, offers a tough look at top bank executives, including a former CFO.

"The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, in its huge report on the trading loss, made a convincing case that the chief financial officer at the time, Douglas L. Braunstein, made several highly misleading statements in an April 13, 2012, conference call with shareholders and the public." Other executives made similar misstatements to analysts and others.

The bank has consistently held that the executives acting in good faith based on the information they had at the time. The Senate report disagrees: "Given the information that bank executives possessed in advance of the bank's public communications on April 10, April 13, and May 10, the written and verbal representations made by the bank were incomplete, contained numerous inaccuracies, and misinformed investors, regulators and the public."

In any case, this is fast becoming water under the bridge. It's highly unlikely that a JPMorgan Chase executive will be charged with anything criminal. For a while it looked liked Blythe Masters was vulnerable, but not really any more. You have to credit Jamie Dimon to some degree; he seems to have sought assurances in some cases that top executives would not be charged.

For more:
- here's the article

 

Read more about: Enforcement Action, JPMorgan Chase
back to top



Also Noted

SPOTLIGHT ON... Matt Taibbi on hedge funds

The man who coined perhaps the most all-time most famous epithet of Goldman Sachs has taken aim at a new target: hedge funds that he accuses of "looting" public pensions. He doesn't think much of current strategy of loading up on alternative investments in hopes of closing projected liability shortfalls. To be sure, there are different ways of spinning things. But we can all agree that some pensions are rethinking their alternative investments with an eye for investing more wisely and efficiently, not necessarily for cutting these investments all together.  Article

Company News: 
> Ex-Barclays CEO buys more shares. Article
> Bank of America cuts gold forecast. Article
> Ex-Jefferies exec aims to nix charges. Article
> CME delays European exchange. Article
> Blackstone CEO sounds off. Article
Industry News:
> Nontraditional bond funds soar. Article
> Big surge in offerings on the way? Article
> Alibaba IPO debate goes on. Article
Regulatory News:
> SEC trial lawyer to step down. Article
> Lawmaker presses banks on student loans. Article
And finally … Steve Ballmer bows out in style. Article


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