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Friday, January 11, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Tullow Oil, Moneysupermarket and Westhouse Holdings


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 11th January 2013


The Markets

Sluggish UK production figures were released by the Office for National Statistics, with manufacturing output showing a 0.3% fall in November and there being 0.3% growth in industrial output. On the bright side there was an 11.3% jump in oil and gas output after the maintenance of the Buzzard North Sea oil field was completed, representing the biggest monthly rise since 1968. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight commented, "Hopes the economy avoided a renewed GDP dip in the fourth quarter of 2012 took another significant blow as industrial production could only manage a small rebound."

The Japanese government has approved a new 72 billion pound stimulus package in a bid to boost the recession hit economy. The money will be spent on infrastructure and incentives for business in an initiative that analysts expect to boost the country's economy by 2% and create 600,000 jobs. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "It is vital that we have an economic strategy that can create jobs and raise incomes to sustain growth".

Over in Germany, factories slashed production in the last quarter of 2012 as a result of weak European demand according to the the country's Economy Ministry. With official fourth quarter figures not expected until February, the consensus from economists is that the country's economy will have contracted in the fourth quarter but will pick up in the first quarter of 2013. The Ministry commented, "A slight improvement in sentiment indicators suggests that the economy will start the new year on a positive note and will quickly overcome this temporary period of weakness".


At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 10.31 points at 13,481.53 and the Nasdaq fell by 0.03 points to 2,744.15.

In London the FTSE 100 increased by 20.07 points to 6,121.58; the FTSE 250 finished 67.05 points up at 12,797.83; the FTSE All-Share gained 11.28 points to 3209.56; and the FTSE AIM Index crept up by 1.46 points to 736.13.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce reiterated its "buy" recommendation on Orosur Mining (OMI) with a target price of 85p. The broker notes that the firm is on track to meet its production guidance for the full year of between 63-68,000 ounces of gold. Seymour Pierce believes the stock looks heavily discounted compared to its peers on all metrics and believe that the firm's solid performance will continue to improve in 2013. The shares fell by 4p to 34.5p.

Shore Capital retained its "buy" recommendation on recruitment firm Hydrogen (MTC) as it believes the company will meet its recently downgraded expectations. The broker expects productivity to markedly increase in 2013 as costs are now thought to remain virtually static and earnings are set to rise. Shore Capital are also full of praise for the group's "strong" balance sheet and believe the shares remain good value on these bases. The shares remained flat at 83.5p.

N+1 Singer Equity Research maintained its "buy" stance on JD Sports Fashion (JD.) with a target price of 690p. According to the broker's forecasts the shares are currently trading at a 25% discount to its peers after recent downgrades on the back of the firm's poorly performing outdoor wear business. The broker goes on to state its belief that the new management team, helped by newly refurbished stores, will turn this sector of the business around. The shares climbed by 6p to 680.5p.

Blue-Chips

Oil giant Tullow Oil (TLW) reported a group 2012 production level of 79,200 boepd, which represents a slight shortfall from the its most recent guidance. The firm attributed this underperformance to the enforced shutdown of its non-operated production in the CMS area of the UK in early December 2012 following a safety incident. On a positive note, the company was keen to stress the success of its two Jubilee Phase 1A wells, which are currently producing 110,000 bopd. However, the shares tumbled by 39p to 1,186p after the firm was forced to write off $670 million to cover the cost of dry wells and licence relinquishments.

Mid Caps

Price comparison website Moneysupermarket.com (MONY) expects to report a 15% increase in revenues to 204.5 million pounds for 2012 as well as a 26% increase in EBITDA to 66 million pounds. This ramp up in performance was primarily driven by an improvement in trading in insurance, Home Services and Travel. The money saving website also confirmed that it has written down its investment in its Financial Services Net business after many of its services have become redundant. As a result the company will recognise an impairment charge of 4.2 million pounds. The shares gained 9.7p to 168p.

Electronic components manufacturer Laird (LRD) announced that it will comfortably meet its expectations for 2012 after a good trading performance in the fourth quarter. The firm went on to reaffirm its intention to recommend a total dividend of 10p for 2012. Additionally, Laird confirmed it will announce its 2012 preliminary results on 1st March 2013. The shares were up by 7.7p at 239.7p.

Small Caps & AIM

Mobile gaming firm Probability (PBTY) has entered into a supply agreement with Lottomatica Scommesse to supply its hosted mobile casino and slots games for the regulated Italian market. The games on offer will be compatible with Apple, Andriod and Blackberry smartphones and tablets. Slot games have only recently been approved in Italy so there will be an urgent rush for operators to establish their brands in this market place. The shares increased 1p to 68p.

Supplier of veterinary medicines Animalcare (ANCR) confirmed that trading in the first six months of its financial year has been strong and it is in a position to meet market expectations. Group revenue was up by 13% at 6.1 million pounds while gross profit was up by 16%. The firm attributed much of the growth to the re-development of its registration system. The shares inched up by 1.5p to 146.5p.

Stanley Gibbons (SGI) expects profitability for 2012 to be in line with market expectations. The collectables and rare stamps business cited the recent acquisition of bidStart for enabling it to deliver its online strategy. The group also highlighted its expectations that the current trend of collectibles being utilised as an alternative asset class will increase further in 2013; a trend which is illustrated in its current order book. The shares gained 13p to 246.5p.

Jeweller Theo Fennell (TFL) revealed that it experienced disappointing trading over Christmas as a result of a weak consumer market and a lack of footfall in its stores. Consequently, full year results for the year ending 31st March will be materially below expectations. As a result of the poor performance in UK Theo Fennell stores, the company is planning to further develop its International wholesale presence and expand the brand's online selling platform. The shares lost 1.5p to 10p.

Marketing firm dotDigital (DOTD) delivered revenue growth of 22% to 6.7 million pounds for the six month period ended 31st December 2012. The growth was boosted by successful new client wins and growth in recurring revenues. Revenue growth has been achieved despite a drop in clients from 831 to 680 as the company looks to increase its focus on a lower amount of higher value clients under long-term contracts. The shares slipped by 0.75p to 16p.

Corporate financier Westhouse Holdings (WHL) has announced its intention to delist from AIM after extensive discussions with shareholders. Against a backdrop of another low year of trading volumes, the company said that its listing imposes significant costs in both cash and management time, so the decision is in line with its strategy of driving down costs. The broker made a statutory loss of 3.32 million pounds in the six months to June 2012 and head count has been cut from 99 to 59 following its recent merger with Arbuthnot Securities. Poor Ophelia may not be getting a new pony this year!

The shares dropped by 6p to 13.5p to capitalise the firm at just 4.46 million pounds. Could there be an opportunity here for a rich foreign financier to gain access to the London markets on the cheap?

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