Weekly Report 19/03 – 23/03/ 2012
Adopting a favorable reaction to the positive divergence caught on Friday, the pair has inclined closing below three important levels as follows:
1-SMA 100. 2- The key resistance level of 1.3230.
3-The Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the entire downside move from 1.4245 to 1.2625.
We classify this incline as a correctional wave after touching the sensitive areas around 1.3005 as seen on the provided daily chart. To conclude, potential downside move may start during this week targeting 1.3005; noting that a break above 1.3320 will damage the suggested classical probability.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.2860 and key resistance at 1.3460.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.1865 as far as areas of 1.3550 remain intact.
| Support | 1.3110 | 1.3025 | 1.2970 | 1.2930 | 1.2860 |
| Resistance | 1.3200 | 1.3230 | 1.3320 | 1.3375 | 1.3460 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.3200 targeting 1.3005 and stop loss above 1.3325 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 19/03 – 23/03/ 2012
The initial support around 1.5640 zones and the support of the momentum descending channel played a big role pushing the pair higher as seen on the provided daily chart. Actually, the bearish harmonic possibilty "5-0 pattern" started in July, 2011 remains valid as far as the "D" point at 1.5995-1.6000 zones remains intact. A break below 1.5785 will confirm resuming the downtrend; whilst taking 1.6000 decisively will give us a rational reason for pause.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5460 and key resistance at 1.6165.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 remain intact.
| Support | 1.5780 | 1.5680 | 1.5615 | 1.5555 | 1.5460 |
| Resistance | 1.5880 | 1.5935 | 1.6000 | 1.6075 | 1.6165 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.5860 targeting 1.5640 and stop loss above 1.5990 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 19/03 – 23/03/ 2012
The pair has declined affected by previous Thursday's spinning top pattern as we discussed on Friday while momentum indicators continue offering the probability of printing negative divergences. Meanwhile, Vortex-trend indicator- continues presenting a positive signal. The contrarian between these technical factors forces us to stay aside for the time being until we see if the pair intends to revisit the initial support levels 81.50 areas or will overlook the negative divergence to resume the upside journey towards the high of April, 2011 at 85.50.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 81.25 and key resistance now at 85.50.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 82.80 | 82.50 | 82.00 | 81.25 | 81.00 |
| Resistance | 83.90 | 84.30 | 84.50 | 85.00 | 85.50 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable setup presents itself to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 19/03 – 23/03/ 2012
The negative divergence and the solidity of the key resistance level of 0.9310 have sent the pair lower below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upside wave from 0.8565 to 0.9590 zones as seen on the provided daily chart. We will depend on the lower line of Keltner channel and the strength of the support previously breached at 0.9105 to suggest an upside wave during this week. A break above 0.9200 is required to confirm resuming the bullishness started at 61.8% Fibonacci level. On the downside, 0.8980-0.8960 should hold to keep the overview valid.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 0.8890 and key resistance at 0.9445.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 0.9950 as far as areas of 0.8850 remain intact.
| Support | 0.9105 | 0.9080 | 0.9030 | 0.8925 | 0.8890 |
| Resistance | 0.9210 | 0.9260 | 0.9310 | 0.9400 | 0.9445 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 0.9105 targeting 0.9310 and stop loss below 0.8965 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 19/03 – 23/03/ 2012
The pair is giving traders a hard time trading within very narrow ranges since a while. The trading range is getting narrower among the main falling wedge pattern. Momentum indicators are hinting the current market conditions by trading neutrally. Thus we prefer to remain neutral for now as well, unless we witness a meaningful breakout of this ranging market.
The trading range for this week is expected among the key support at 0.9840 and the key resistance at 1.0150.
The short term trend is to the upside targeting 1.0650 with steady daily closing above 0.9900.
| Support | 0.9890 | 0.9870 | 0.9850 | 0.9800 | 0.9770 |
| Resistance | 0.9940 | 0.9990 | 1.0020 | 1.0050 | 1.0080 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend staying aside awaiting further confirmations | ||||
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