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Sunday, January 15, 2012

Inside Commodities Monday January 16 2012

Thomson Reuters
Inside Commodities
 

MONDAY, JANUARY 16, 2012

To download the full report (PDF document) please click here


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SPECIAL PDF REPORT - WANG TAO TECH ANALYSIS Q1 PDF: 

Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao expects spot gold's medium-trend downtrend that started at the Sept. 6, 2011 high of $1,920.30 to continue through the first quarter of the year, pushing prices down to $1,417 per ounce over the period. Falls also lie in store for base metals, Wang Tao added. 
For a PDF of his first-quarter technical analyses on commodities and energy prices, please click here
 

   
 
COLUMN:
 

LME; old boy's club or fight club?: Andy Home


--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The clock is ticking for a potential sale of the London Metal Exchange (LME), the venerable 135-year old institution that still dominates global trade in industrial metals.  
Tensions are rising. Three board members, each representing a ring-dealing member of the Exchange have called on others to join them in their opposition to a proposed hike in trading fees.


ENERGY: 

Brent rises towards $111 as Iran warns Gulf exporters
SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose towards $111 on worries over supply disruptions after Iran warned Gulf Arab neighbours of consequences if they raised oil output to replace Iranian barrels facing international sanctions. 
"The United States is trying to persuade buyers to stop importing oil from Iran, while each country is studying its options, its situation," said Ken Hasegawa, a derivatives manager with brokerage Newedge in Tokyo. "This situation will continue with high tension." 

Nigerian president and unions fail to strike deal
ABUJA, Jan 16 (Reuters) - President Goodluck Jonathan and labour unions failed in overnight talks to reach a compromise over the removal of fuel subsidies that has raised fears of a shutdown of Nigeria's oil industry, union and presidency sources said on Monday. 
Jonathan was expected to make a public address later on Monday and unions declined to comment until he had spoken. 

Sudan says taking some S.Sudan oil but won't close pipe
KHARTOUM, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Sudan said on Sunday it has started confiscating some oil exports from South Sudan that it believes it is owed to meet unpaid transit fees but will not shut down a pipeline carrying the southern state's oil. 
The United States said Sudan's move added to tensions with South Sudan, which became independent in July under a 2005 peace deal with Khartoum that ended decades of civil war. North and South Sudan have failed to sort out a long list of disputes. 

Nigerian strikes set to resume Monday, no oil cut
ABUJA, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Nigerian labour unions said they would resume nationwide strikes on Monday, crippling the second largest economy in Africa, after failing to reach a compromise with the government over scrapped fuel subsidies. 
However, the main oil union said it would maintain the output of Africa's No. 1 crude producer, not joining walkouts for the time being, and the government said more talks would be held on Sunday despite the unsuccessful round the day before. 

Iran OPEC gov. warns Arab oil producers
TEHRAN, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours should not raise their production to replace Iranian oil if the European Union goes ahead with a ban on Iranian crude imports, Iran's OPEC governor said on Sunday. 
The EU has agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, while the United States has pressured Asian buyers to reduce imports to starve Tehran of revenue for its disputed nuclear programme. 


AGRICULTURE:

Rains help, but will not reverse corn losses - Argentina
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Rains this week brought relief to Argentina's 2011/12 corn crop after weeks of drought but will not reverse losses in most areas, the government said in its weekly report on Friday. 
The world's No. 2 corn producer has been hit by La Nina-related dryness that has toasted crops, prompted a lowering of crop estimates and dented hopes that Argentina can replenish corn supplies depleted by a lacklustre U.S. harvest. 

Canadian Wheat Board sees smaller world wheat crop
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The world will grow slightly less wheat in the upcoming crop year, but Canada's production looks to rise modestly, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Friday in its first outlook of the year. 
Global wheat production will slip nearly 2 percent to 677 million tonnes in 2012/13 from an estimated 688.8 million tonnes for the current marketing year, the CWB said at a farm conference in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. 

Rain sweeps over drought-hit Brazil grains areas
SAO PAULO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Heavy rain returned to soak key parts of southern Brazil's drought-hit grains areas on Friday, which could halt crop losses that have been increasing through weeks of hot, dry weather, local state agricultural agencies said. 
Unusually dry weather linked to the prevailing La Nina weather anomaly has caused significant losses to soy and corn crops in the world's No. 2 soy producer, boosting the price of the grains on the Chicago Board of Trade futures exchange. 

Rains help Paraguay soy; farmers say more needed
ASUNCION, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Rains fell on Paraguay's drought-stricken soy fields but farmers said they were not enough to revive plants and experts forecast that dryness will still severely affect output. 
Paraguay is the world's No. 4 soybean exporter, although it lags far behind No. 3 supplier Argentina. The oilseed is Paraguay's top export earner and sinking yields could complicate bank loans to growers and hurt the economy. 

Argentina's Rosario slashes corn forecast 18 pct
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Drought has crippled Argentine corn and prompted the Rosario grains exchange on Friday to slash its 2011/12 production outlook to 21.4 million tonnes, down nearly 18 percent from last month's estimate of 26 million tonnes. 
Weeks of dryness have hurt grains fields in the world's No. 3 soybean- and No. 2 corn-exporting country, prompting crop estimate cuts and denting hopes that Argentina could replenish corn supplies depleted by a lackluster U.S. harvest.  


BASE METALS:

Copper falls as euro zone rating cut heightens slowdown concern
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Copper fell on concern that a credit rating cut for nine euro zone nations by agency Standard & Poor's could turn into the latest impediment for the group's emergence from a two-year sovereign debt crisis, slowing demand for commodities. 
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange  lost 0.95 percent to $7,924 a tonne by 0120 GMT. Prices are up 4.2 percent so far this year.
 
CSN may halt iron ore shipments due to heavy rains
SAO PAULO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - CSN , Brazil's second-largest iron ore exporter, may halt iron ore shipments as heavier-than-usual rain in the country's main iron ore district hampers mine operations. 
The company is analyzing the situation but has not yet decided if it will declare "force majeure", which would allow it to break shipping contracts with foreign clients, said a spokeswoman in a phone interview. 

Shanghai copper stocks jump 14.4 pct to 5-month high
SHANGHAI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) jumped nearly 15 percent over the past week to the highest since August 2011 on record Chinese imports in December, data showed on Friday. 
SHFE copper stocks  climbed by 15,194 tonnes over the past week to 120,452 tonnes, extending a trend in place since mid-December. 

China imported iron ore stocks inch up in wk ending Jan 13
BEIJING, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Stockpiles of imported iron ore at major Chinese ports inched up 0.8 percent this week to end at 97.38 million tonnes, according to data issued on Friday by industry consultancy Mysteel. 
The increase was driven by a 4.7 percent increase in shipments originating from Brazil, which offset a decline in Australian ores over the week.   


PRECIOUS METALS: 
  
Gold steady after S&P downgrades; dollar pressures
SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded steady , weighed down by a strong dollar after mass downgrades of euro zone nations by Standard & Poor's on Friday, while its safe haven appeal could benefit from renewed fears about the euro zone debt crisis. 
"There are a lot of risks still ahead of us and we don't think gold has priced in these risks," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale. "It (the downgrades) is one of the incremental pushes for gold to appreciate." 


STEEL NEWS: 
 
Venezuela steel output up 39 pct in 2011 - Chavez
CARACAS, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Production by Venezuela's state-owned steelmaker Sidor rose 39 percent to 2.5 million liquid tonnes in 2011 compared to the previous year, President Hugo Chavez said on Friday. 
The improved figure was still, however, far from the company's stated aim of 4 million tonnes for last year. 

Arcelormittal SAfrica Newcastle plant resumes output
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 13 (Reuters) - ArcelorMittal South Africa , a unit of the world's biggest steelmaker , resumed full production at its Newcastle plant that was hit by a furnace failure last year, the company said on Friday. 
The furnace failure had impacted an already subdued outlook for the company and ArcelorMittal had to source steel from external sources to minimise the impact on its customers.   


GLOBAL MARKETS:
 
Shares fall as euro zone downgrades rekindle fears
TOKYO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on fears that mass sovereign debt rating cuts by Standard & Poor's would further aggravate euro zone funding difficulties and drag down global growth, threatening to derail progress in resolving the debt crisis.     
"Uncertainty over how the downgrades would affect the bailout fund's capability and European banks' recapitalisation efforts is dampening markets sentiment, as it raises concerns about European banks trimming their loans in Asia," said Hirokazu Yuihama, senior strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets.  


CHART OF THE DAY:
 
SHANGHAI COPPER - 24 HRS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 

 

 

BEYOND THE HEADLINES:
 
Iran warns of consequences if Arabs back oil sanctions
TEHRAN, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Iran warned Gulf Arab neighbours they would suffer consequences if they raised oil output to replace Iranian crude facing an international ban. 
In signs of Tehran's deepening isolation over its refusal to halt nuclear activity that could yield atomic bombs, China's premier was in Saudi Arabia on Sunday probing for greater access to its huge oil and gas reserves and Britain voiced confidence
 once hesitant EU would soon ban oil imports from Iran. 

Brazil to approve new oil auctions
ABU DHABI, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff will approve the country's 11th oil rights concession auction "within weeks," Energy Minister Edison Lobao told Reuters on Sunday, opening the door to the first major offer of Brazilian petroleum exploration rights in more than four years. 
At the auction, Brazil expects to sell rights to explore for and exploit oil and natural gas in 174 areas, half offshore and half on land, the 11th such auction since it ended state-led Petrobras'   monopoly and opened the country to outside investment in the late 1990s. 

Indian gold jewellery demand seen up 10-15 pct in 2012
VICENZA,Italy, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Gold jewellery demand in India, a major global market, is estimated to have risen 5 to 7 percent in 2011 and is set to grow a further 10 to 15 percent this year with bullion prices falling back after recent gains, the head of India's biggest jewellery retailer said on Sunday. 
India's jewellery demand dropped 26 percent in the third quarter of 2011 to 125.3 tonnes, hit by strong price swings and  a weaker rupee, the industry-funded World Gold Council has said.

China's Wen presses Saudi Arabia for oil access
BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pressed Saudi Arabia to open its huge oil and gas resources to expanded Chinese investment, media reports said on Sunday against a backdrop of growing tension over Iran and worries over its crude exports to the Asian power. 
The Saudi kingdom is China's biggest source of imported oil, and securing energy security was high on Wen's agenda in Riyadh, in part reflecting concerns about how nuclear tensions and sanctions could unsettle ties with Iran. 

Italy 2011 jewellery export down, more gloom to come
VICENZA, Italy, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Jewellery exports from Italy, Europe's top producer and exporter, fell at least 10 percent in volume in 2011 and are likely to drop again this year as global economic slowdown saps consumer demand, senior industry officials said on Saturday. 
"There is a crisis. People have less money, people lose jobs. The first thing they give up on buying is jewellery,"   Licia Mattioli, chairman of the Italian goldsmiths' federation Federorafi, told Reuters in an interview on Saturday. 

Better Silver cuts output 25-30%, eyes on prices
MILAN, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Better Silver, Italy's biggest maker of silver chains, cut its output volume by 25 to 30 percent in 2011, more than it initially expected, and may cut further in 2012 if metal prices stay high, its chief executive said.  
"The new crisis of 2011 is hitting harder than that of 2008/2009, because it is coupled with high silver prices. The impact of high prices is heavy on weak consumer demand,"     Paolo Bettinardi told Reuters in an interview on Saturday. 

Silver miner sees demand boost from socks
NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Silver is no longer just a precious metal with growing demand in the electronics, solar and health industries, it also has a little-known role in the battle against stinky socks and underwear, a silver mining executive says. 
"Silver has properties that people forget - it's an anti-microbial," said John Smith, president and chief executive of mining company Silver Standard Resources Inc  . 

Freepoint Commodities CEO says targets oil, coal as firm grows
Jan 13 (Reuters) - David Messer, one of the founders of the trading firm that grew to be RBS Sempra and now CEO of Freepoint Commodities, told Reuters on Friday his company is pushing into oil and coal markets as it branches into Europe and Asia. 
Launched less than 12-months ago with private equity backing from the $10 billion Stone Point Capital fund, Connecticut-based Freepoint is already expanding its 'physical commodity merchant' model from North American power and gas into distillates, fuel oil, European crude, and possibly coal. 

Agriculture white paper to show China food security concerns
BEIJING, Jan 13 (Reuters) - China's annual white paper on agriculture will focus on technology to boost food output rather than the farm income or rural development issues of previous years, underlining the country's concerns about its ability to feed itself. 
The world's most populous country faces pressure from rising food demand, compounded by weak agricultural infrastructure, backward technology and low mechanisation that contribute to low farm yields. 
  
 
Inside Commodities
 

EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY (GMT)
 
JAPAN CONSUMER CONFID. INDEX DEC 2011 (N/A)
 
OPEC MONTHLY REPORT JAN (N/A)
 
 
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