Weekly Report 17–21/10/ 2011
The pair is stable above 127.2% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the bullish Crab harmonic pattern, while harmonic analysis rules suggest that stability above this level could support the pair to reach the last extended target of the pattern at 161.8% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg. Therefore, consolidation above 1.3825 suggests that the upside movement could extend towards 1.4010. Stability above 1.3680 and 1.3710 is much better for our expectations to prevail.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3475 and the major resistance at 1.4105.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.3825 | 1.3710 | 1.3680 | 1.3620 | 1.3565 |
| Resistance | 1.3840 | 1.3880 | 1.3910 | 1.3970 | 1.4010 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair above 1.3825, and take profit in stages at (1.3910 and 1.4010) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.3710 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 17–21/ 10/ 2011
The pair has continued its upside recovery from 1.5270, breaking above the suggested B point of the duplicated harmonic pattern as seen on the main chart. This positive weekly closing should bring more bullishness, but actually we do have two technical obstacles that force us to stay aside until we get better entry during this week:
- Stochastic over daily studies reflects an obvious overbought case as seen on the first secondary image and this sign may bring pullback this week.
- The negative divergence on the four-hour time scale as seen on the second subsidiary graph.
A break back below 1.5780 with a daily closing will bring the negative picture of resuming the CD leg of the harmonic structure back into focus.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5330 and key resistance at 1.6190.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.5720 | 1.5630 | 1.5555 | 1.5480 | 1.5390 |
| Resistance | 1.5875 | 1.5935 | 1.6000 | 1.6025 | 1.6075 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable technical setup presents itself to pinpoint the next big move. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 17-21/10/ 2011
Although the pair has closed very positively on Friday above the combination of SMA 20 and SMA 50 as seen on the provided daily graph, but we need more confirmation to turn short term bias bullish. We will get this confirmation once the pair breaches through 77.70 to get ride of two month range from 75.90 to 77.70. Anyway, we will depend on the breakout above the aforementioned moving averages and the positivity on Vortex indicator to suggest a retest of 77.70 first and a break of which will be a very good buying opportunity for short term traders.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.80 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.95 | 76.40 | 76.10 | 75.80 | 75.60 |
| Resistance | 77.70 | 77.90 | 78.45 | 78.90 | 79.55 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 76.95 targeting 79.00 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 17–21/ 10/ 2011
The pair is stable in areas around 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern. According to harmonic analysis, the pattern’s first target is at 38.2% Fibonacci correction, which is located in our case at 0.8695. The pair is currently stable below the Exponential Moving Average 20, which could support the downside movement to extend. Momentum indicators are turning positive, while stability below 0.9185 is required to relieve this positivity, while consolidation below the moving average at 0.9040 is much better for our negative expectations.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8505 and the major resistance at 0.9370.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
| Support | 0.8920 | 0.8850 | 0.8780 | 0.8750 | 0.8695 |
| Resistance | 0.9030 | 0.9080 | 0.9105 | 0.9140 | 0.9180 |
| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 0.9030, and take profit in stages at (0.8930, 0.8850 and 0.8700) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9185 might be appropriate this week | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 17–21/ 10/ 2011
The pair is stable below the bottom of point (c), which could support a retest of 127.2% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg at 1.0005, but also the downside movement could extend towards the last extended target of the bearish harmonic pattern as shown above, which is located at 161.8% Fibonacci of the CD leg at 0.9825. The descending channel’s main resistance resides with the Exponential Moving Average 20, which supports the suggested downside movement and also weakens the effect of Stochastic being within oversold areas. Consolidation above 1.0255 with 4-hour closing is sufficient to negate our expectations over intraday basis.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9825 and the major resistance at 1.0400.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 1.0005 | 0.9970 | 0.9950 | 0.9880 | 0.9825 |
| Resistance | 1.0115 | 1.0185 | 1.0205 | 1.0255 | 1.0375 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 1.0115, and take profit in stages at (1.0000 and 0.9825) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.0205 might be appropriate this week. | ||||
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