Weekly Report 27 Feb-02 March
The pair managed to push above the latest swing high at 1.3320 to accelerate the incline toward 1.3500 areas. Although the recent rally looks impressive; it remains clear that the pair is still within a bearish trend, trading among the descending channel shown on the image, and below several key technical resistance levels, such as the cluster of the horizontal resistances among 1.3500-1.3600 area, followed by the 200-days SMA. In general, we expect the pair to pullback slightly as price is overbought as seen on Stochastic, before attempting again to the upside this week. However, we see upside potential likely limited to levels below 1.3625, if extended it should top below 1.3800 otherwise long term bullish outlooks shall be reconsidered.
The trading range for the week is expected among the key support at 1.3625 and the key resistance at 1.3050.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.1865 as far as areas of 1.3550 remain intact.
| Support | 1.3425 | 1.3400 | 1.3370 | 1.3340 | 1.3300 |
| Resistance | 1.3485 | 1.3540 | 1.3575 | 1.3600 | 1.3630 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 1.3540 targeting 1.3320. Stop loss four-hour closing above 1.3620. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 27 Feb-02 March
Complementing our previously suggested Elliott wave count, we are approaching the pair from a classical point of view. The pair completed another test of the 200-days SMA today. As shown on the daily chart above, price is trading within a sideways range after breaching the main descending trend line (dashed black line) to settle above the 50-days SMA however below the 200-days SMA and the key resistance at 1.5930. RSI is a lagging price action suggesting upside attempts lack the momentum. Therefore, we hold onto our bearish expectations for this week, unless we see a breach and steady trading above 1.5930.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5400 and key resistance at 1.6170.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 remain intact.
| Support | 1.5810 | 1.5750 | 1.5680 | 1.5645 | 1.5600 |
| Resistance | 1.5880 | 1.5925 | 1.5775 | 1.6000 | 1.6050 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 1.5900 targeting 1.5800 and 1.5645. Stop loss above 1.5950. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 27 Feb-02 March
Looking at the chart from a different perspective, attempting to analyze the current rally; we can notice the following:
A) Price has broken out of the long consolidation period; usually such consolidation precedes major trends.
B) ADX trend strength indicator is above 60.00 (on the bullish side) for the first time since 2006, hinting the current rally may has something different in store.
C) RSI is at extreme levels we haven’t seen since a while, hinting the major demand for the pair, thus price is extremely overbought and a downside correction maybe needed.
Accordingly, any downside correction should be limited to a retest of the breached resistance areas around 80.00, as the outlook for the pair this week is bullish.
| Support | 81.00 | 80.80 | 80.65 | 80.40 | 80.20 |
| Resistance | 81.25 | 81.65 | 82.00 | 82.25 | 82.50 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 80.20 targeting 81.65 and stop loss below 79.15 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 27 Feb-02 March
The pair is hesitating around 61.8% Fibonacci correction as shown on chart. RSI has dipped within overbought areas. Thus, we may see a pullback towards the 50% level and the main breached support which should turn into resistance now at 0.9080 before resuming the downside move this week.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 0.8785 and key resistance at 0.9200.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 0.9950 as far as areas of 0.8850 remain intact.
| Support | 0.8965 | 0.8925 | 0.8900 | 0.8875 | 0.8850 |
| Resistance | 0.8985 | 0.9030 | 0.9080 | 0.9105 | 0.9145 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 0.9030 targeting 0.8935 and stop loss above 0.9105 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 27 Feb-02 March
The pair started to incline attempting to test the critical resistance at 1.0050, while price is gaining upside momentum as seen on momentum indicators, however we still need the awaited breach above this resistance in addition to the descending resistance of the falling wedge formation, that would accelerate the anticipated bullish move we have been waiting for.
The trading range for this week is expected among the key support at 0.9890 and the key resistance at 1.0150.
The short term trend is to the upside targeting 1.0650 with steady daily closing above 0.9900.
| Support | 1.0000 | 0.9950 | 0.9890 | 0.9850 | 0.9800 |
| Resistance | 1.0050 | 1.0080 | 1.0150 | 1.0200 | 1.0250 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.9950 targeting 1.0040 and 1.0075, stop loss below 0.9875. | ||||
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