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| Analysis | Crude oil lowered its losses on Monday trading after the release better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report which offset some of the negativity stemming from worries that Greece may face a default. Oil for November delivery is currently trading around $77.89 a barrel after recording a high of $78.76 and a low of $76.83. U.S. ISM manufacturing showed a widening expansion to 51.6 in September compared with both prior and estimate readings of 50.6. Last week, data from the U.S. showed an upward revision to 2Q GDP to 1.3% from the second reading of 1.2%. In addition, initial jobless claims slipped to 391,000 last week from 428,000 a week before, where expectations are showing that the awaited non-farm payrolls will witness an improvement in September. Thus, with the improvement in fundamentals, especially from the U.S., the world's largest crude consumer, oil may rebound after falling to one-year low. However, the jittery sentiment affected by the European debt crisis is still predominant and directing investor's behavior, On Monday, the main attention is on the meeting of the European finance chefs in Luxembourg, where they will discuss vital issues such as the Greek default, expanding the European rescue fund and measures to protect banks from collapsing. The week started with tensions a Greece announced on the weekend that it will not be able to meet its budget deficit target for the current year and revealed in a budget report released on Monday that the economy will witness contraction of 5.5% this year and 2.5% in 2012 while budget deficit is predicted to mushroom to 172.7% of GDP. The delay of the disbursement of the sixth tranche of last year's bailout package from October 3 till mid October, until international inspectors write their assessment regarding the Greek commitment to cut deficit on Wednesday, added to worries and thereby enhancing demand on refuges. In the FOREX market, the dollar was negatively affected by the hopes in markets which encouraged investors to leave refuges. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar movements versus a basket of major currencies, is currently moving near the day's opening level at 78.90 after touching a high 79.14 of and a low of 78.78.
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