Weekly Roundup SEPTEMBER 30, 2011 MarketWatch top 10 stories, Sept. 26 - 30By MarketWatch The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 240.60 points, or 2.2%, at 10,913.38. It gained 1.3% for the week but lost 6% for the month, its fifth monthly loss in a row. The 12.1% quarterly loss was the worst since the March 2009 quarter. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell 28.98 points, or 2.5%, at 1,131.42 Friday. It was off 0.4% for the week, down 7.2% for the month and off 14.3% for the quarter — its worst quarter since December 2008. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) lost 65.36 points, or 2.6%, at 2,415.40. It fell 2.7% for the week, lost 6.4% for the month and 12.9% for the quarter. Get a head start on what's coming up with our Week Ahead videos. Also, check out our new Trading Deck for the latest commentary and investing ideas. Greg Morcroft assistant managing editor Europe Week Ahead: Will the ECB cut rates? U.S. Week Ahead: What to watch for in the fourth quarter Amazon unveils new Kindle Fire tablet Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) lifted the wraps on its long-rumored tablet called the Kindle Fire — surprising investors with a $199 starting price that puts the device at a 60% discount to the cheapest version of the iPad. Amazon showed off the new tablet at a packed media event to about 300 journalists in New York. "We are building premium products at nonpremium prices," Chief Executive Jeff Bezos said. Read MarketWatch coverage of Amazon's Kindle Fire. Merkel wins vote to expand Europe bailout The German parliament on Thursday voted overwhelmingly to increase the size and flexibility of the euro-zone rescue fund, providing an important victory for Chancellor Angela Merkel as she battles growing public skepticism over the country's role in bailing out its currency partners. In a closely watched vote, 523 members of the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, voted in favor of the enhanced powers, while 85 voted against and three abstained. More crucially, Merkel's ruling center-right coalition provided 315 votes, news reports said, meaning she didn't have to rely on the backing of opposition parties to win passage of the measures. Read MarketWatch coverage of German Parliamentary vote. Bank of America setting debit card fee Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the largest U.S. bank by assets, plans to charge customers a $5 monthly fee for making debit-card purchases starting early next year, according to an internal memo sent to bank executives. The fee will apply to customers with various checking accounts during any month they use their debit card to make a purchase. The fee will not apply to customers who do not use their debit card to make a purchase, or who only use it to make ATM transactions. Read MarketWatch coverage of Bank of America debit fee. Something big is happening in the markets The stock and bond markets are behaving in a way that, with only one exception at the depths of the 2008-09 crisis, they have not since 1958 — 53 years ago: The stock market's dividend yield is now above the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury note. For example, the dividend yield on the Dow is 2.8%, and on the S&P 500 it is 2.2%. The 10-year T-note yield, in contrast, is just 2%. This might not initially strike you as that big of a deal, but it is. Read Mark Hulbert's commentary on MarketWatch. How to keep more of what you earn for retirement It's not what you earn, but what you keep. That old adage is true when saving for retirement and it's equally important — if not more so — when it comes to withdrawing money from your various accounts earmarked for retirement. But the conventional wisdom and advice about the best way to take money out of those accounts just might leave you with less, not more, after-tax wealth. As a general rule, it's usually better to sell long-term investments held in taxable accounts instead of taking money from tax-deferred accounts before you have to. But this general rule could be hazardous to your after-tax income and after-tax wealth. Read Robert Powell commentary on MarketWatch. Why it makes sense to buy a newly built home Given the bloated supply of existing homes for sale, including a glut of foreclosure there aren't many people willing to shell out a premium price for a newly built house. Despite a likely higher price tag, a home builder will say that you're buying a better product when you buy new. For one, it's a home designed for the way Americans live today, maximizing the usability of space and offering amenities that speak to modern needs, such as big closets. Plus, new homes are built to be more energy-efficient. Read Amy Hoak's Home Economics column on MarketWatch. Where the good jobs are Unemployment remains high and the job market is tough for many. But people still need other people to repair their cars, do their accounting, repair computers, write apps and even sell them things. And there currently are more opportunities in those occupations than others, according to online job postings. Here's are some examples of occupations with relatively good online job ad growth. Read Ruth Mantell's On The Job column, on MarketWatch. Why European stocks are screaming buy Europe is bust. Buy Europe! That, at least, is the call from the smartest investor I know — Crispin Odey, a hedge-fund manager in London. "It may be confusing to find someone who believes that a crisis is on its way but is also happy to buy equities ahead of the crisis," he writes in his latest bulletin to investors. "My reason is that the worries have been there for so long, the causes are so obvious and the valuations are so cheap that this is a case of buying early. For me, the crisis will bring resolution and with it higher prices." Read Brett Arends's column on MarketWatch. 10 things your government has done for you "The government is the problem," they say. "The government can't create jobs." Or: "The government should just get out of the way." How many times over the past three — or 30 — years have you heard conservatives (and even a few liberals) say that there's no role for government in fixing our economy? They're wrong, but this constant refrain is having an impact on our political system; it's narrowing our options as we struggle with excessive unemployment, burdensome debt and wasted lives. But the idea that the American government can do nothing right has become so pervasive that I feel compelled to point out what used to be obvious to everyone: Our democratic government — along with you, me and our ancestors — created the conditions that have allowed private citizens and companies to build a great nation. This land was made by you and me. Here are the 10 best things the government has done to improve our lives. Read Rex Nutting's commentary on MarketWatch. 3 investments to hit back at inflation The Labor Department recently released August inflation numbers, showing that consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month. That's an annualized rate of 3.8% and the ugliest pace since November 2008. But don't get mad at inflation. Get even. A savvy investor can profit from the big inflationary trends now and hopefully offset the damage caused by price increases — and then some. Here are three moves to make now to profit from inflationary pressures. Read Jeff Reeves's investment advice on MarketWatch's new Trading Deck. Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: kumaresan.selva.blogger@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2011 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111 |
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Friday, September 30, 2011
Weekly Roundup: MarketWatch top 10 stories, Sept. 26 - 30
Wall Street Sheds nearly 2.5% On Global Growth Concerns, Next week's Jobs Data Remain In Focus!
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U.S. Stocks Stretch Its Losing Streak Throughout Friday...
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Personal Finance Daily: U.S. government bond funds surge in quarter
Personal Finance Daily SEPTEMBER 30, 2011 U.S. government bond funds surge in quarterBy MarketWatch
Also on MarketWatch today, Kim Hjelmgaard offers an inside look at the cloistered world of the international diamond business and explains how the pricing of polished diamonds is a contested practice going through industry reexamination. — Anne Stanley , Managing Editor, Personal Finance U.S. government bond funds leap in third quarter It's been a history-making third quarter in financial markets, featuring events that renewed investor demand for the relative security of bond funds. The Fed dusted off a program to manipulate the yield curve that the U.S. central bank had last used some 50 years ago. And, the U.S.'s sterling credit rating got an unprecedented downgrade. These were two moves that in theory should have had a noticeable impact on the government-debt yield curve — but in reality caused barely a ripple. Read more: U.S. government bond funds leap in third quarter. Diamond prices latest frontier in industry battle Diamonds, coveted by millions of people around the world, undertake a convoluted journey from the earth's interior to a prized consumer object capable of holding deep emotional meaning. Read more diamond prices latest frontier in industry battle. Awaiting FHA changes on refinancing The wheels of government grind slowly, Lew Sichelman writes, but those who refinance their FHA-insured loans could, someday, be in for a big payday. Read more: Awaiting FHA changes on refinancing. Currency rates, season make Europe a deal If you called off your summer European trip this year because airfares skyrocketed and the euro/dollar exchange rate meant that meals had to be kept to a minimum, you might want to start packing now. Read more: Currency rates, season make Europe a deal. ECONOMY AND POLITICS Incomes fall for first time in almost two years Personal income declines in August for the first time since October 2009, easing 0.1%, as consumer spending moderates from a strong pace in July. The savings rate hits its lowest level since November 2009. Read more: Incomes fall for first time in almost two years. Consumer sentiment rises in September After tumbling in August, a gauge of consumer sentiment rises in September, while remaining at relatively low levels, according to data from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Read more: Consumer sentiment rises in September. China PMI points to flat September activity HSBC's survey of Chinese purchasing managers for September comes in flat with its reading for August, indicating conditions remain marginally in contraction. Read more: China PMI points to flat September activity. U.S. missed chance to hike bank capital: report Regulators missed a chance to further strengthen the quality of the capital base of big banks by not waiting until the institutions were in a position to meet private Federal Reserve guidance for paying back taxpayer-infusions, a watchdog reports. Read more: U.S. missed change to hike bank capital. INVESTING Gold, silver bullion coins and their 'fondle factor' If you're looking for a safer place to park your money these days, gold and silver bullion coins may be it, but don't expect to make a quick buck. Read more: Gold, silver bullion coins' 'fondle factor.' Market's dividend yield higher than 10-year Treasury note's Believe it or not, the stock and bond markets are behaving in a way that, with only one exception at the depths of the 2008-2009 credit crisis, they have not since 1958 — 53 years ago: The stock market's dividend yield is now above the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury note, writes Mark Hulbert. Read more: Market's dividend yield higher than 10-year Treasury note's. The King of Balloons isn't just a blowhard Treb Heining started small as a balloon vendor at Disneyland. Now, he's transformed the whole industry, Al Lewis reports. Read more: The king of balloons isn't just a blowhard. Dipping into savings isn't a long-term growth plan The problem in the economy isn't spending, it's incomes, writes Rex Nutting. Read more: Dipping into savings isn't a long-term growth plan. Many markets are deep in bear territory The S&P may not technically be in bear-market territory yet, but many market sectors are. And huge swaths of overseas markets are deep in a real bear market. Read more: Many markets are deep in bear territory, Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://www.marketwatch.com/m MarketWatch has sent you this newsletter because you signed up to receive it. To ensure you receive this newsletter in the future, please add marketwatchmail.com to your list of approved senders. Sent to: kumaresan.selva.blogger@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Subscribe Copyright 2011 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy (updated 6/26/07). MarketWatch - Attn: Customer Service, 201 California St., San Francisco, CA 94111 |
The 17-nation Euro Area Shares Close The Week Down, On Fears The Global Economy is Slowing!
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Fundamental Oil
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Forecast | |
Analysis | Crude oil retreated on Friday trading after the release of grim reports from major economies showing that the global slowdown will probably continue, thereby reducing demand on oil. Oil for November delivery is currently trading around $80.80 a barrel after recording a high of $83.20 and a low of $80.06. However, on the weekly basis, crude prices are showing some incline. A drop in U.S. consumer spending, China's manufacturing gauge and German retail sales added to worries that major economies may relapse into another recession. After knowing the result of the German vote yesterday, which showed the approval of expanding the EFSF, giving some optimism in markets, eyes went back on fundamentals. Next week, the main focus will be on manufacturing and services data from major economies as investors aim to see the extent of the slowdown in the last month of the third quarter. Moreover, the EIA report release this week showed that the U.S commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 341.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are upper limit of the average range. By extension, finished gasoline inventories remained unchanged while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. In the FOREX market, the dollar took advantage of the worries spreading after the release of downbeat reports from major economies which enhanced demand on the dollar as a refuge. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar movements versus a basket of major currencies, edged up to a high of 78.63 compared with the day's opening level of 77.86.
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Fundamental Precious Metals
Gold reversed to the downside today after reaching the highest at $1640.47 per ounce, to currently trade around the opening level at $1618.20. The metal also fluctuated heavily during the session, reaching a low of $1609.45 per ounce, noting that the metal opened the Asian session at $1614.47. The U.S. dollar advanced today against other major currencies amid rising jitters and woes in middle of the general pessimism which returned to dominate markets, especially after inflation climbed in the euro zone and unemployment lingered at high levels, while the downbeat income report from U.S. supported the dollar to gain momentum, reflecting worse economic conditions and spreading pessimism through currency and stock markets, which provided gold with mixed demand, as investors hold more gold as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation, while the dollar index pressured the metal down as we can see gold moving within a narrow range now. The euro zone released the consumer price index flash estimate for September, where inflation rallied to 3.0% from 2.5%, adding more pressures on the European Central Bank, especially after expectations in the market pointed at the possibility of cutting rates by 0.5% in the next meeting; however, rising inflation could force the Bank to stand still and take no further steps in order to control rising inflation along with supporting growth and recovery. The euro zone released the unemployment rate for August, where unemployment lingered at 10.0% in line with expectations. The U.S. dollar returns to trade higher today after the losses seen in the past session, forcing downside pressures on other major currencies and commodities, where we can see the greenback gained strength against the euro, the sterling pound, the yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar index (USDIX) rebounded sharply to the upside after opening the session today at 77.86, recording a high of 78.63 and a low of 77.82, and is currently hovering around 78.50. Silver also gave up all the gains recorded earlier, where after opening the session at $30.50 per ounce, the metal set the highest at $31.27 and the lowest at $29.88, and is currently trading around $30.50 per ounce. |
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BEA News: Integrating Census population counts into regional per capita estimates
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has updated its advance estimates of per capita real GDP by metropolitan area and per capita personal income by metropolitan area for 2000-2010 to incorporate the newly available intercensal county population estimates released by the US Census Bureau on September 28, 2011. The remaining local area per capita personal income estimates will not be revised at this time. In April 2012, BEA will release revised personal income estimates for 2008-2009 and estimates of per capita personal income for 2000-2009, along with new estimates for 2010, for all local areas.
More information can be found at www.bea.gov/regional/docs/popnote.cfm
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BEA News: Integrating Census population counts into regional per capita estimates
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has updated its advance estimates of per capita real GDP by metropolitan area and per capita personal income by metropolitan area for 2000-2010 to incorporate the newly available intercensal county population estimates released by the US Census Bureau on September 28, 2011. The remaining local area per capita personal income estimates will not be revised at this time. In April 2012, BEA will release revised personal income estimates for 2008-2009 and estimates of per capita personal income for 2000-2009, along with new estimates for 2010, for all local areas.
More information can be found at www.bea.gov/regional/docs/popnote.cfm
The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides this service to you at no charge. Visit us on the Web at www.bea.gov. You can view or update your information at any time on your Subscriber Preferences Page. All you will need is your e-mail address. If you have questions or need assistance, please e-mail subscribe@bea.gov.
Personal Income Falls for the First Time since October 2009, while Personal Spending Remains Moderate
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BEA News: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2011
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
Personal income decreased $7.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at
www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
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The U.S. dollar advances against majors
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Technical Cross Report
Midday Report
The pair remains stuck among the sensitive levels between 118.85 and 120.40, we need the pair to surpass one of the levels to signal the upcoming possible direction. Therefore, our morning expectations remain unchanged, and we advice reviewing our morning report for more details.
The expected trading range for the day is among the key support at 117.35 and the key resistance at 122.10.
The short term trend is to the downside so far as 150.00 remains intact targeting 112.00.
Support | 119.50 | 118.85 | 118.00 | 117.35 | 116.90 |
Resistance | 120.40 | 120.80 | 121.30 | 122.10 | 122.65 |
Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair with hourly closing above 120.40 targeting 122.10 and stop loss with hourly closing below 119.50 may be appropriate. |
Euro vs. Japanese Yen (EUR / JPY)
Midday Report
The pair is trading within a narrow range since morning and below the resistance level shown on the image -in red- while Stochastic is positive. Therefore, the indecisive price action push us to remain on the side awaiting confirmations around the 103.25 and 104.90 resistance.
The expected trading range for the day is among the key support at 101.75 and the key resistance at 105.30.
The short term trend is to the upside so far as 123.30 remains intact targeting 94.80.
Support | 103.65 | 103.25 | 102.75 | 102.30 | 101.75 |
Resistance | 104.05 | 104.40 | 105.10 | 105.75 | 106.40 |
Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend staying aside awaiting more confirmations for the next move. |
Euro vs. Great British Pound (EUR / GBP)
Midday Report
The pair is attempting to breach the support of the range bound at 0.8660 supported by the 50 EMA. Accordingly, we expect a downside move for the rest of the day targeting mainly the support of the main descending channel at 0.8600, where we should monitor trading carefully at that point as breaching the channel will open the door toward more bearishness and 0.8530 level.
The expected trading range for the day is among the key support at 0.8590 and the key resistance at 0.8790.
The short term trend is to the upside so far as 0.8165 remains intact targeting 1.0370.
Support | 0.8595 | 0.8500 | 0.8455 | 0.8400 | 0.8300 |
Resistance | 0.8660 | 0.8710 | 0.8730 | 0.8790 | 0.8845 |
Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling the pair around 0.8660 targeting 0.8600 and stop loss with hourly closing above 0.8690 may be appropriate |
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Technical Oil Report
Midday Report: Crude Oil Futures for November Settlement
The trading range is getting narrower, while the 20-50-100 period Exponential Moving Averages clearly describe the current ranging stance, in addition to the symmetrical triangle -all illustrated on image-. Accordingly, our morning expectations for the commodity remain valid, however we will try to exploit these conditions to scalp some points trading among the triangle, by longing lows and shorting highs.
The trading range for the day is among the major support at 80.00 and the major resistance at 85.00
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.
Support | 81.75 | 81.20 | 80.50 | 79.60 | 77.90 |
Resistance | 82.25 | 82.75 | 83.30 | 84.00 | 84.60 |
Recommendation | Our morning expectations remain valid. We also recommend buying oil around 81.15 targeting 81.75 and 83.00 with stop loss hourly closing below 81.00 |
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Technical Precious Metals Report
Midday Report
After touching our detected technical resistance at 1635.00 during the previous session, the metal started to decline once more towards the pivotal support around 1625.00. Actually, we are still witnessing sharp fluctuation below SMA 100 -colored in green- while the entire correctional movements from 1533.00 are trapped below the neckline of the double top formation seen on the daily studies. Hence, we keep our morning anticipations intact for the rest of the day; whilst a break below 1575.00 will be a technical catalyst behind revisiting 1533.00 once more.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1533.00 and key resistance now at 1702.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support | 1615.00 | 1590.00 | 1575.00 | 1560.00 | 1545.00 |
Resistance | 1630.00 | 1648.00 | 1665.00 | 1687.00 | 1702.00 |
Recommendation | Our morning expectations remain valid. |
Silver
Midday Report
Silver was able to find a strong base above the simple moving average 50, and also above the main resistance for the technical structure as shown above in red. All these factors together are sufficient for silver to extend the upside movement. The levels of 30.30-50 will be our intraday support in order to reduce associated risks, because silver's positive momentum could be insufficient to provide a breach of 31.85.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 28.60 and key resistance now at 33.50
The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.
Support | 30.50 | 30.30 | 29.55 | 29.10 | 28.85 |
Resistance | 31.05 | 31.85 | 32.10 | 32.95 | 33.15 |
Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver around 30.85 and take profit in stages at (31.85 and 33.15) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 30.30 might be appropriate. |
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