Weekly Report 10/10 – 14/ 10/ 2011
The pair was able to hold onto the positive bias and created a classic ascending channel, affected by the bullish Crab harmonic structure, which remains valid as long as the pair is still trading above 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg. We expect the upside movement to continue towards the pattern’s extended targets at 1.3565 and maybe 1.3620. Stability above 1.3475 supports our positive expectations of reaching the extended targets of the harmonic structure.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3110 and the major resistance at 1.3765.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.3435 | 1.3410 | 1.3390 | 1.3350 | 1.3310 |
| Resistance | 1.3475 | 1.3515 | 1.3565 | 1.3620 | 1.3665 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 1.3390, and take profit in stages at (1.3475 and 1.3565) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.3270. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 10/10 – 14/ 10/ 2011
The sharp pullback form the pivotal support level of 1.5270 -check the importance of this level in the previous report- succeeded in activating a positive crossover on Stochastic as seen on the provided weekly chart. Actually, the weekly closing below the neckline of the suggested double top pattern in addition to the harmonic probability of drawing the CD leg of the duplicated harmonic pattern prevents us from suggesting bullish direction during this week. In the interim, the B point at 1.5780 may be retested to unload the positivity of Stochastic before resuming the bearishness that started at 1.6615. Thereby, we should be patient to make sure that the bearishness will continue and that will not be confirmed unless 1.5555-1.5540 zones are breached decisively.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5255 and key resistance at 1.6075.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.5555 | 1.5445 | 1.5390 | 1.5330 | 1.5255 |
| Resistance | 1.5690 | 1.5780 | 1.5820 | 1.5935 | 1.6000 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair with a breakout below 1.5540 targeting 1.5270 and stop loss above 1.5780 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 10/10 – 14/ 10/ 2011
The pair is still trapped within the sideways trading areas between 76.55 and 76.95 as seen on the provided four-hour graph. Stochastic continues giving different signs with every attempt to attack one of the aforesaid levels; whilst MACD is neutral and couldn't give a clear signal. Henceforth, we will continue staying aside for the time being; noting that a break of 76.95 will trigger a panic buying pressures since the pair consolidates above 23.6% Fibonacci of CD leg for the bullish harmonic AB=CD pattern. A break below 75.90-75.80 will damage this pattern completely.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.10 | 75.80 | 75.60 | 75.25 |
| Resistance | 76.95 | 77.20 | 77.60 | 77.90 | 78.45 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable technical setup presents itself to pinpoint the next big move. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 10/10 – 14/ 10/ 2011
The pair mostly traded above 0.9185 during the past week, while this week the Exponential Moving Average 50 is approaching this level. Forming the Butterfly harmonic pattern is still valid, leading the pair towards 0.9420 through an extended upside movement, supported by consolidation above 0.9185. Stability below the Exponential Moving Average 50 at 0.9140 could weaken the upside movement.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8750 and the major resistance at 0.9420.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400
| Support | 0.9185 | 0.9140 | 0.9080 | 0.9030 | 0.8920 |
| Resistance | 0.9270 | 0.9300 | 0.9335 | 0.9370 | 0.9420 |
| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair above 0.9210, and take profit in stages at (0.9335 and 0.9400) and stop loss with daily closing below 0.9140 might be appropriate | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 10/10 – 14/ 10/ 2011
We recognize a bearish candle sticks formation below the Exponential Moving Averages 20 and 50, while the pair is currently trading below the second target of the bearish AB=CD harmonic pattern, which represents 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg. According to the harmonic analysis rules, stability below the second target suggests reaching the pattern’s extended targets, and as a new week begins, we witnessed a negative crossover on Stochastic, which supports our outlook. Therefore, we expect a downside movement to control the pair’s movement during this week.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.0000 and the major resistance at 1.0620.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 1.0295 | 1.0205 | 1.0185 | 1.0115 | 1.0080 |
| Resistance | 1.0375 | 1.0410 | 1.0500 | 1.0560 | 1.0620 |
| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 1.0340, and take profit in stages at (1.0200 and 1.0115) and stop loss above 1.0480 might be appropriate | ||||
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